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Sorry this just false. Battery deployment for electricity grid storage is progressing with unprecedented and accelerating speed. We will solve this. It just re

by oezi 2y ago

Sorry this just false. Battery deployment for electricity grid storage is progressing with unprecedented and accelerating speed. We will solve this. It just requires some money. If you research it, it is surprisingly little in relation to global annual GDP (at least less than I was expecting).

Manuel_D 2y ago
> Sorry this just false. Battery deployment for electricity grid storage is progressing with unprecedented and accelerating speed. And what, exactly, is that speed? The US plans to deploy "15GW" (presumably the authors mean GWh of storage, GW is not a unit of storage) of grid storage in 2024. That's less than 2 minutes of storage! https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61202#:~:text=Planned%20and%20currently%20operational%20U.S.,Preliminary%20Monthly%20Electric%20Generator%20Inventory.&text=Battery%20storage%20projects%20are%20getting%20larger%20in%20the%20United%20States https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61202#:~:tex.... Again, global battery production is only about 6-700 GWh (be careful with figures that cite capacity, which is distinct from actual production). And very little of that is dedicated to grid storage.
- oezi 2y ago
  Those figures are about maximum dispatchable power usually for a time of more than 1 hour (2 to 4 seems typical). So 16 GW battery allow you to power the US similarly to 3x times the power of the largest US nuclear reactor for probably 3 hours. If such projects are economically feasible now, the economics are just getting better and better and this means we will see exponential growth. California is seeing improved grid stability and reduction in CO2 emissions due to batteries today. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/07/climate/battery-electricity-solar-california-texas.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/07/climate/batte...
  - Manuel_D 2y ago
    Somewhere between 4 and 8 minutes worth of storage deployed over the span of a whole year is not even remotely close to feasible. Even diurnal storage to even out solar production will require 8-12 hours worth of storage. Seasonal intermittency will require days or even weeks. Since 2020, battery prices have gone flat. Moore's law works because computers get faster as transistors get smaller. That's not the case for batteries, or most other goods. A new car cost a million dollars in 1900, $100k in 1910, and $10K in 1920. Would it have been reasonable to assume that a new car would cost $10 by 1950? Of course not, the steel and rubber in the car is worth much more than $10. A car cannot cost less than the input materials used to build it. Input materials account for 75% of the cost of a battery already (https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-an-ev-battery-cell/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-a...) The room for further price reductions become ever more slim.

by oezi 2y ago

Manuel_D 2y ago

> Sorry this just false. Battery deployment for electricity grid storage is progressing with unprecedented and accelerating speed. And what, exactly, is that speed? The US plans to deploy "15GW" (presumably the authors mean GWh of storage, GW is not a unit of storage) of grid storage in 2024. That's less than 2 minutes of storage! https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61202#:~:text=Planned%20and%20currently%20operational%20U.S.,Preliminary%20Monthly%20Electric%20Generator%20Inventory.&text=Battery%20storage%20projects%20are%20getting%20larger%20in%20the%20United%20States https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61202#:~:tex.... Again, global battery production is only about 6-700 GWh (be careful with figures that cite capacity, which is distinct from actual production). And very little of that is dedicated to grid storage.

oezi 2y ago
Those figures are about maximum dispatchable power usually for a time of more than 1 hour (2 to 4 seems typical). So 16 GW battery allow you to power the US similarly to 3x times the power of the largest US nuclear reactor for probably 3 hours. If such projects are economically feasible now, the economics are just getting better and better and this means we will see exponential growth. California is seeing improved grid stability and reduction in CO2 emissions due to batteries today. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/07/climate/battery-electricity-solar-california-texas.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/07/climate/batte...
- Manuel_D 2y ago
  Somewhere between 4 and 8 minutes worth of storage deployed over the span of a whole year is not even remotely close to feasible. Even diurnal storage to even out solar production will require 8-12 hours worth of storage. Seasonal intermittency will require days or even weeks. Since 2020, battery prices have gone flat. Moore's law works because computers get faster as transistors get smaller. That's not the case for batteries, or most other goods. A new car cost a million dollars in 1900, $100k in 1910, and $10K in 1920. Would it have been reasonable to assume that a new car would cost $10 by 1950? Of course not, the steel and rubber in the car is worth much more than $10. A car cannot cost less than the input materials used to build it. Input materials account for 75% of the cost of a battery already (https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-an-ev-battery-cell/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-a...) The room for further price reductions become ever more slim.