3 ms·
> This statement doesn't mean anything Nope. Take it into account all facts described in my previous answer. Short version: to produce at most 17% (and now 9
by natmaka 2y ago
> This statement doesn't mean anything
Nope. Take it into account all facts described in my previous answer. Short version: to produce at most 17% (and now 9%) of the electricity we built reactors. We therefore now need about 10 times more reactors to have 100% nuclear-produced electricity. Then we need about twice as much to replace most of fossil fuels. Therefore 20x reactors are needed.
Known accessible uranium reserves (~130 years for the existing reactor fleet, and therefore about 6 years for the needed 20x fleet) are not sufficient to sustain this. It was not considered as a challenge as we know of a way (breeding) to close the uranium cycle, thus obtaining x100 more energy. However our numerous and very expensive attempts to industrialize breeding all failed flat ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor#Notable_reactors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor#Notable_reacto... ).
If it is not clear please allow me to avoid wasting my time trying to explain it more clearly.
> you are complaining that it's 94% carbon free
Nuclear is NOT carbon-free (even a 100% nuclear electricity emits, mainly due to uranium mining and enrichment), moreover it needs fossil fuel backup. I'm not complaining, just showing that your statement ("We could have had zero-carbon grid 50 years ago, in the 70’s") isn't accurate (to put it with a friendly tone).
> I am familiar enough with the difference
> This argument is a farse
No. It is not about primary/final energy ( https://ourworldindata.org/energy-definitions https://ourworldindata.org/energy-definitions ). You wrote "Now millions of people will be displaced or dead by climate change and that could have been prevented" and I showed that is a farce.
> we could have nuclear powered container ships
I doubt so. Think insurance, to begin with. Civilian nuclear exists only because all nations using it neglect to insure it properly, as an exception. How exactly would such a ship be competitive if they cannot access to many (more and more nations are phasing-out nuclear) territorial waters and ports?
Moreover all existing nuclear ships are exploited by military personal (yes, even ice-breakers), that is to say in a context where the TCO is way (way!) higher than in a commercial ship.
The amount of available uranium is also a challenge: all those new reactors will deplete the reserves and lead to some crisis.
To begin with...
> if we really wanted, nuclear powered airplanes.
Source?
> You can't have solar/wind powered ships unless you are going back to sails
Nope. "solar/wind powered ships" now mainly means "electric ship".
Please check https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_boat#List_of_battery-electric_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_boat#List_of_battery-...
Moreover it can also be done with some e-fuel.
- defrost 2y ago> Known accessible uranium reserves (~130 years for the existing reactor fleet, and therefore about 6 years for the needed 20x fleet) are not sufficient to sustain this. And? Or do you not understand the terminology of "known reserves" and why no one would bother "proving" known inferred resources to become known proven reserves when there's 130 years worth already. If you're implying that current JORC reserves* are all that exist and nothing else exists other than that which has had money spent being drilled and modelled and queued up ready to mine then you might need a refresher course on mineral exploration. * whether uranium, lithium, iron ore, copper, bauxite, oil, gas, etc.
- natmaka 2y ago> And? ... and no one will invest into nuclear plant which are to be amortized in (best case) 40 years, along with all the megastuff needed to operate them (formation, fuel processing, waste disposal...) if they are not pretty sure to be able to exploit them for at least 40 years. Note: currently all planed nuclear plants replace (at global scale) existing ones and therefore do not cause pressure over fuel (because there are very few of them), and their amortization plans are done upon 60 years. > If you're implying that current JORC reserves* are all that exist Nope, however massive prospection since the 1940's largely bumped up after the bubble (nearby 2007 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_bubble_of_2007#Impact https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_bubble_of_2007#Impact ) didn't lead to disruptive reserves discoveries, therefore this evaluation (about 130 years for the current fleet, at current conditions) is realistic. Who exactly will invest tens of billions of USD to build many nuclear plants (and their auxiliaries) on such a bet? If there are other ways to obtain enough nuclear fuel at realistic conditions the burden of proof weights on you. Please state at least one. Bonus: lowering uranium ore grade leads to more emission, threatening the 'low-carbon' qualification for nuclear. Scientific studies are clear: M. Lenzen ("between 10 and 130 g CO2-e/kWhel, with an average of 65 g") and E. Warner et G. Heath ("9 to 110 g CO‐eq/kWh by 2050") https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222817608_Life_cycle_energy_and_greenhouse_gas_emissions_of_nuclear_energy_A_review https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222817608_Life_cycl...