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1 in 23 flights resulting in booster loss due to an uncontrolled fire is not good enough for human space flight. The space shuttle had a catastrophic failure ra
by caseyy 2y ago
1 in 23 flights resulting in booster loss due to an uncontrolled fire is not good enough for human space flight. The space shuttle had a catastrophic failure rate of 1 in 67 flights. This is a very high risk to human life that NASA and others have agreed is unreasonable.
Whether the booster that failed this time was reused many times is irrelevant. There does not seem to be evidence that reuse correlates with landing failure risk. Several Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters have failed[0] after a much lower number of flights and the sample count is much too low to infer a trend.
This was also not a freak incident. On average, Block 5 boosters fail to land 1 in 28 times. This is about on par with the catastrophic failure rate of De Havilland Comet, which was notorious for failing.
Although admittedly rarer, Falcon 9s have also had ascent-related failures. CRS-7 mission saw Falcon 9 explode 139 seconds after liftoff. Another one failed in AMOS-6 during a static fire test. This is about 1 in 190.
In this context, it is wise to demand that SpaceX investigates the failures before putting humans in space for tourism. I know we all want to see private astronauts, but it only took two spacecraft failures to end the entire Space Shuttle program. Today, with increased safety expectations, it would not take more for NASA to re-evaluate their partnership with SpaceX and set back private space flight significantly. It's best to take due care.
For comparison, there was 1 Concorde crash per 7,957 flights. It was deemed too unsafe as a vehicle.
Putting it all in context shows that Falcon 9 does not have an excellent safety rating. And while more modern Falcon 9 boosters may have it one day, today is not that day.
- marcusverus 2y agoYou're conflating payload delivery with booster recovery. The booster went 23/23 on payload delivery, which is clearly safe enough for human flight. If you want to compare it with the space shuttle, you should compare apples to apples. In terms of booster recovery--where the Falcon 9 failed--the comparison would be 0/67 for the shuttle vs. 22/23 for the Falcon 9. Seems a tad odd to say that 0/67 is acceptable, yet 22/23 is suspect.
- manuelmoreale 2y ago> 1 in 23 flights resulting in booster loss due to an uncontrolled fire is not good enough for human space flight. The space shuttle had a catastrophic failure rate of 1 in 67 flights I think your numbers are a bit off. The space shuttle had a failure rate of 1 in 67 as a whole program, using multiple vehicles. The 1 in 23 is just that single booster. Before this failed landing they had 267 consecutive successful landings. From the numbers I’m seeing online Falcon 9 has launched 377 times and had 374 successful missions so the failure rate is 1 in 126 EDIT: I’m not going to comment on the rest of your comment because you went all over the place grabbing data at random to try justify your view.