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None of those things has successfully built a platform in the way nvidia has with CUDA, although Microsoft is well-positioned to do it eventually. The reason y
by paulmd 2y ago
None of those things has successfully built a platform in the way nvidia has with CUDA, although Microsoft is well-positioned to do it eventually.
The reason you’re confused is you are thinking of the peers of NVIDIA as being AMD and Intel and not Apple and Nintendo and Sony, or mainframe vendors, etc. The reason they are different from AMD or Intel (or I think we can throw Xbox into this pile too too) uses AMD or intel because they want to use AMD or intel, they use them because they are a convenient compile target for code that you’ve gone to the effort of making very portable. And that’s a commodity market, where the other things are platforms with an organic userbase that’s not just there because it’s the cheapest thing.
(this is true of gaming gpus too btw, other than AMD APUs being very compelling for handheld and laptop gaming, and maybe Lunar Lake. whereas people want to use nvidia - that’s the actual meaning of “mindshare” and not the “mind control field” AMD fans assume mindshare to be. People who use the product for the product’s sake and not just pure cost expediency.)
The other thing I think people are sleeping on is the mediatek partnerships. They already announced three different markets (some are already launched) - automotive, smartphone SOCs, now monitor controllers too. They will almost certainly be the vessel for Nvidia’s desktop chip next year too - functionally they are partnered with /oem for nvidia now. Nvidia already has PNY to be their Foxconn/Sapphire, now they have Mediatek to do the boring plumbing work in their designs. Nvidia simply doesn’t have the staffing to tap these markets and staffing up with a bunch of boring suit and tie workers would destroy what makes nvidia tick, now they can go tap these other markets.
I think people really really overstated Nvidia’s unwillingness to license their IP etc. Buying ARM was a play for getting GeForce as the default graphics IP for basic smartphones and shit, and giving CUDA access to that market. Well, getting your IP into mediatek is the next best thing. Thinking Jensen wanted to buy arm to sell more tegras is pleb tier thinking and ambition. Nvidia didn’t pony up $40 billion to burn it all down. That’s fucking stupid.
There’s obviously a point where it gets stupid, but nvidia is genuinely still a company with a huge amount of growth potential and thinking they can sustainably lock in most of their current earnings isn’t too crazy. The real counterweight is that it’s a one man show and Jensen is getting old. But it seems like maybe Catanzaro is being positioned as a potential heir, what with him being the public face of dlss as well as the AI effort as a whole there. He seems like a logical choice of heir.