5 ms·

Numbers are impressive, not sure why it's down in AH.

by smy20011 2y ago

mackman 2y ago
"Smallest earnings beat"
almog 2y ago
For one, forward guidance upper limit is lower than previous estimates. More volatility to be expected during the call if/when they finally address the rumors of Blackwell delays.
roboror 2y ago
Could be related to the $50b buybacks
- KeplerBoy 2y ago
  Shouldn't those pump the stock?
  - Etheryte 2y ago
    It depends on the market sentiment, it can go both ways. On one hand a stock buyback can be considered a bullish signal, the company is strong and doing well, on the other it can be a bearish signal, the company is out of useful things to do with all the cash it has laying around so it's buying back stock.
zooq_ai 2y ago
First Time? Markets are always forward looking. It's always future revenue / profit expectations. Sure current quarter numbers will tell half-the story about the future, but the highest impact is always what the future story is. Earnings beat is almost always Mainstream, Newbie, Normie focus. Quarterly Earnings can be (legally) cooked to tell whatever numbers you want. Revenue Growth and Operating Margins always tell the bigger story
IAmGraydon 2y ago
Because markets are forward-looking. They know this cycle of the AI hype bubble is coming to an end, so to put it simply, this earnings release is as good as it will get for a while. The market believes there's nowhere to go but down from here.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- ckastner 2y ago
  > put it simply, this earnings release is as good as it will get for a while They literally guided more growth for the next quarter and Nvidia is notorious for sandbagging this number.
  - IAmGraydon 2y ago
    They can say whatever they want, but the market clearly isn’t buying it.
    - ckastner 2y ago
      No, that only thing clear is that the market expected better results. Not achieving those results does not imply that results are going downhill from now, as you suggest. Slowing growth and cooling margins are reasonable explanations for the stock being down even in light of continued growth. If the market believed that demand had indeed peaked this quarter as you suggest, the stock would absolutely crater. But nobody reasonable believes that. All the data from outside Nvidia (eg: Capex from hyperscalers) also points to continued growth.
- talldayo 2y ago
  The market thought Nvidia was toast when cryptocurrency flopped over. The demand for GPGPU compute is pervasive, and even if LLMs go nowhere then there's still applications for CUDA and high-performance server compute. When the dust settles, Nvidia's lifeline is less the AI demand and more their server niche they fill. Besides Apple, who can't be forced to build server hardware at gunpoint, Nvidia is the only TSMC customer bringing HPC to the consumer. That's an enormous segment they can capitalize on, and AI is really just the tip of the iceberg. With so many other OEMs laser-focused on AI performance, they're entirely glossing over the flexibility that made CUDA successful in the first place. Pour another one out for OpenCL, the industry hardly knew ye.
yieldcrv 2y ago
rename earnings reports to guidance reports
tedunangst 2y ago
More sellers than buyers.
rty32 2y ago
> Record quarterly revenue of $30.0 billion, up 15% from Q1 and up 122% from a year ago Looks like things are slowing down (second derivative)
- forrestthewoods 2y ago
  > Looks like things are slowing down Important question: is it demand or manufacturing capability?
  - dagmx 2y ago
    It’s because all the gargantuan numbers were relative to their slump year when they crashed hard. It was a stratospheric comeback but people who expected a linear trajectory from that are missing the context
    - basiccalendar74 2y ago
      hate how all YoY commentary completely ignores recession years like 2022 or boom years like 2021.
      - dagmx 2y ago
        Yeah people really need to zoom out on their stock tickers more
  - Jlagreen 2y ago
    It's manufacturing capability and there is no absolute slowdown. Nvidia has been increasing data center revenue by exactly $4b for many quarters QoQ. The only difference now is that the base is higher so it looks like growth is slowing down on % view. Nvidia is totally supply constraint as it can easily be seen. They also underguide every quarter for 2 years and beating it. But if you look closely then you can easily see the $4b QoQ growth. That is the constant there since 2022. Blackwell will add additional supply next year. I don't think Hopper wills top shipping and I don't think demand will fall. So next year QoQ absolute growth could go up which will probably surprise to the upside.
mjfl 2y ago
"Buy the rumor, sell the news"
usaar333 2y ago
The question is if they are impressive for a company worth $3.1 trillion. Annualizing this quarter's earnings it has a P/E of 45. And earnings "only" grew at 60% annualized, slower than in the past. (Revenue growth is also a bit slower as a percentage) So market likely sees decelerating growth which can't justify such a high P/E. e.g. if growth fell to say 30% YOY in a year, nvda would be seen as overvalued today.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > Annualizing this quarter's earnings it has a P/E of 45. And earnings "only" grew at 60% annualized, slower than in the past That's a PEG ratio of 1.5 [1], below the S&P 500's forward 2.63 [2]. (EDIT: It's 1.4x [3].) Wild times. [1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp [2] https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/spgi/price-earnings-peg-ratios https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/spgi/price-ear... [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41384923 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41384923
  - usaar333 2y ago
    Isn't spgi the company not the index? I'm seeing 17% projected growth in earnings: https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_earnings_per_share_ttm_forward_estimate https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_earnings_per_share_ttm... P/e is 24. ($493 billion quarterly earnings, $47 trillion market cap). - and yes, nvda is literally alone 6% of sp500 earnings. Peg is 1.4 as a comparable to the way I calculated Nvidia.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > Isn't spgi the company not the index? Yes. Yes it is.
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> not sure why it's down in AH It could be due to gross margins, though they're pretty much in line with estimates [1]. I'd guess it's noise from options rebalancing [2]. [1] https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-forecasts-third-quarter-revenue-above-estimates-2024-08-28/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-forecasts-third-qu... [2] https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-results-could-spur-record-300-billion-swing-shares-options-show-2024-08-27/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-results-could-spur...
- tedunangst 2y ago
  Are the hedgies short laddering to inflict max pain?
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > hedgies short laddering to inflict max pain Probably not unless there is a lot of retail on one side of the 0D options book. Also, it would be a reverse squeeze, not short ladder, which is largely a mythical beast invented to salve day traders.
joegibbs 2y ago
Everyone already knew they were going to be impressive so the stock price reflected that, and so it fell because they were expecting it to be slightly more impressive than it already was.
- distortionfield 2y ago
  Buy the rumor, sell the news strikes again
Ologn 2y ago
The last big surprise were the May 2023 earnings, it went from closing at $31.26 to closing at $38.95 the next day (up 24% in one day) after the earnings announcement. Now it is the company with the second largest market cap in the world and enormous growth, so analysts are watching it more and talking about it more. Results are more baked in. Also, it was announced the next-gen Blackwell chips had a flaw found late in the design and will probably be delayed three months, which will also affect revenues.

Numbers are impressive, not sure why it's down in AH.

"Smallest earnings beat"

For one, forward guidance upper limit is lower than previous estimates. More volatility to be expected during the call if/when they finally address the rumors of Blackwell delays.

roboror 2y ago

Could be related to the $50b buybacks

KeplerBoy 2y ago
Shouldn't those pump the stock?
- Etheryte 2y ago
  It depends on the market sentiment, it can go both ways. On one hand a stock buyback can be considered a bullish signal, the company is strong and doing well, on the other it can be a bearish signal, the company is out of useful things to do with all the cash it has laying around so it's buying back stock.

zooq_ai 2y ago

First Time? Markets are always forward looking. It's always future revenue / profit expectations. Sure current quarter numbers will tell half-the story about the future, but the highest impact is always what the future story is. Earnings beat is almost always Mainstream, Newbie, Normie focus. Quarterly Earnings can be (legally) cooked to tell whatever numbers you want. Revenue Growth and Operating Margins always tell the bigger story

IAmGraydon 2y ago

Because markets are forward-looking. They know this cycle of the AI hype bubble is coming to an end, so to put it simply, this earnings release is as good as it will get for a while. The market believes there's nowhere to go but down from here.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
ckastner 2y ago
> put it simply, this earnings release is as good as it will get for a while They literally guided more growth for the next quarter and Nvidia is notorious for sandbagging this number.
- IAmGraydon 2y ago
  They can say whatever they want, but the market clearly isn’t buying it.
  - ckastner 2y ago
    No, that only thing clear is that the market expected better results. Not achieving those results does not imply that results are going downhill from now, as you suggest. Slowing growth and cooling margins are reasonable explanations for the stock being down even in light of continued growth. If the market believed that demand had indeed peaked this quarter as you suggest, the stock would absolutely crater. But nobody reasonable believes that. All the data from outside Nvidia (eg: Capex from hyperscalers) also points to continued growth.
talldayo 2y ago
The market thought Nvidia was toast when cryptocurrency flopped over. The demand for GPGPU compute is pervasive, and even if LLMs go nowhere then there's still applications for CUDA and high-performance server compute. When the dust settles, Nvidia's lifeline is less the AI demand and more their server niche they fill. Besides Apple, who can't be forced to build server hardware at gunpoint, Nvidia is the only TSMC customer bringing HPC to the consumer. That's an enormous segment they can capitalize on, and AI is really just the tip of the iceberg. With so many other OEMs laser-focused on AI performance, they're entirely glossing over the flexibility that made CUDA successful in the first place. Pour another one out for OpenCL, the industry hardly knew ye.

yieldcrv 2y ago

rename earnings reports to guidance reports

tedunangst 2y ago

More sellers than buyers.

rty32 2y ago

> Record quarterly revenue of $30.0 billion, up 15% from Q1 and up 122% from a year ago Looks like things are slowing down (second derivative)

forrestthewoods 2y ago
> Looks like things are slowing down Important question: is it demand or manufacturing capability?
- dagmx 2y ago
  It’s because all the gargantuan numbers were relative to their slump year when they crashed hard. It was a stratospheric comeback but people who expected a linear trajectory from that are missing the context
  - basiccalendar74 2y ago
    hate how all YoY commentary completely ignores recession years like 2022 or boom years like 2021.
    - dagmx 2y ago
      Yeah people really need to zoom out on their stock tickers more
- Jlagreen 2y ago
  It's manufacturing capability and there is no absolute slowdown. Nvidia has been increasing data center revenue by exactly $4b for many quarters QoQ. The only difference now is that the base is higher so it looks like growth is slowing down on % view. Nvidia is totally supply constraint as it can easily be seen. They also underguide every quarter for 2 years and beating it. But if you look closely then you can easily see the $4b QoQ growth. That is the constant there since 2022. Blackwell will add additional supply next year. I don't think Hopper wills top shipping and I don't think demand will fall. So next year QoQ absolute growth could go up which will probably surprise to the upside.

mjfl 2y ago

"Buy the rumor, sell the news"

usaar333 2y ago

The question is if they are impressive for a company worth $3.1 trillion. Annualizing this quarter's earnings it has a P/E of 45. And earnings "only" grew at 60% annualized, slower than in the past. (Revenue growth is also a bit slower as a percentage) So market likely sees decelerating growth which can't justify such a high P/E. e.g. if growth fell to say 30% YOY in a year, nvda would be seen as overvalued today.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> Annualizing this quarter's earnings it has a P/E of 45. And earnings "only" grew at 60% annualized, slower than in the past That's a PEG ratio of 1.5 [1], below the S&P 500's forward 2.63 [2]. (EDIT: It's 1.4x [3].) Wild times. [1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp [2] https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/spgi/price-earnings-peg-ratios https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/spgi/price-ear... [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41384923 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41384923
- usaar333 2y ago
  Isn't spgi the company not the index? I'm seeing 17% projected growth in earnings: https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_earnings_per_share_ttm_forward_estimate https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_earnings_per_share_ttm... P/e is 24. ($493 billion quarterly earnings, $47 trillion market cap). - and yes, nvda is literally alone 6% of sp500 earnings. Peg is 1.4 as a comparable to the way I calculated Nvidia.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > Isn't spgi the company not the index? Yes. Yes it is.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> not sure why it's down in AH It could be due to gross margins, though they're pretty much in line with estimates [1]. I'd guess it's noise from options rebalancing [2]. [1] https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-forecasts-third-quarter-revenue-above-estimates-2024-08-28/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-forecasts-third-qu... [2] https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-results-could-spur-record-300-billion-swing-shares-options-show-2024-08-27/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-results-could-spur...

tedunangst 2y ago
Are the hedgies short laddering to inflict max pain?
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > hedgies short laddering to inflict max pain Probably not unless there is a lot of retail on one side of the 0D options book. Also, it would be a reverse squeeze, not short ladder, which is largely a mythical beast invented to salve day traders.

joegibbs 2y ago

Everyone already knew they were going to be impressive so the stock price reflected that, and so it fell because they were expecting it to be slightly more impressive than it already was.

distortionfield 2y ago
Buy the rumor, sell the news strikes again

Ologn 2y ago

The last big surprise were the May 2023 earnings, it went from closing at $31.26 to closing at $38.95 the next day (up 24% in one day) after the earnings announcement. Now it is the company with the second largest market cap in the world and enormous growth, so analysts are watching it more and talking about it more. Results are more baked in. Also, it was announced the next-gen Blackwell chips had a flaw found late in the design and will probably be delayed three months, which will also affect revenues.