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Nvidia Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2025
- smy20011 2y agoNumbers are impressive, not sure why it's down in AH.
- mackman 2y ago"Smallest earnings beat"
- almog 2y agoFor one, forward guidance upper limit is lower than previous estimates. More volatility to be expected during the call if/when they finally address the rumors of Blackwell delays.
- roboror 2y agoCould be related to the $50b buybacks
- KeplerBoy 2y agoShouldn't those pump the stock?
- Etheryte 2y agoIt depends on the market sentiment, it can go both ways. On one hand a stock buyback can be considered a bullish signal, the company is strong and doing well, on the other it can be a bearish signal, the company is out of useful things to do with all the cash it has laying around so it's buying back stock.
- zooq_ai 2y agoFirst Time? Markets are always forward looking. It's always future revenue / profit expectations. Sure current quarter numbers will tell half-the story about the future, but the highest impact is always what the future story is. Earnings beat is almost always Mainstream, Newbie, Normie focus. Quarterly Earnings can be (legally) cooked to tell whatever numbers you want. Revenue Growth and Operating Margins always tell the bigger story
- IAmGraydon 2y agoBecause markets are forward-looking. They know this cycle of the AI hype bubble is coming to an end, so to put it simply, this earnings release is as good as it will get for a while. The market believes there's nowhere to go but down from here.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- ckastner 2y ago> put it simply, this earnings release is as good as it will get for a while They literally guided more growth for the next quarter and Nvidia is notorious for sandbagging this number.
- IAmGraydon 2y agoThey can say whatever they want, but the market clearly isn’t buying it.
- ckastner 2y agoNo, that only thing clear is that the market expected better results. Not achieving those results does not imply that results are going downhill from now, as you suggest. Slowing growth and cooling margins are reasonable explanations for the stock being down even in light of continued growth. If the market believed that demand had indeed peaked this quarter as you suggest, the stock would absolutely crater. But nobody reasonable believes that. All the data from outside Nvidia (eg: Capex from hyperscalers) also points to continued growth.
- talldayo 2y agoThe market thought Nvidia was toast when cryptocurrency flopped over. The demand for GPGPU compute is pervasive, and even if LLMs go nowhere then there's still applications for CUDA and high-performance server compute. When the dust settles, Nvidia's lifeline is less the AI demand and more their server niche they fill. Besides Apple, who can't be forced to build server hardware at gunpoint, Nvidia is the only TSMC customer bringing HPC to the consumer. That's an enormous segment they can capitalize on, and AI is really just the tip of the iceberg. With so many other OEMs laser-focused on AI performance, they're entirely glossing over the flexibility that made CUDA successful in the first place. Pour another one out for OpenCL, the industry hardly knew ye.
- yieldcrv 2y agorename earnings reports to guidance reports
- tedunangst 2y agoMore sellers than buyers.
- rty32 2y ago> Record quarterly revenue of $30.0 billion, up 15% from Q1 and up 122% from a year ago Looks like things are slowing down (second derivative)
- forrestthewoods 2y ago> Looks like things are slowing down Important question: is it demand or manufacturing capability?
- dagmx 2y agoIt’s because all the gargantuan numbers were relative to their slump year when they crashed hard. It was a stratospheric comeback but people who expected a linear trajectory from that are missing the context
- basiccalendar74 2y agohate how all YoY commentary completely ignores recession years like 2022 or boom years like 2021.
- dagmx 2y agoYeah people really need to zoom out on their stock tickers more
- Jlagreen 2y agoIt's manufacturing capability and there is no absolute slowdown. Nvidia has been increasing data center revenue by exactly $4b for many quarters QoQ. The only difference now is that the base is higher so it looks like growth is slowing down on % view. Nvidia is totally supply constraint as it can easily be seen. They also underguide every quarter for 2 years and beating it. But if you look closely then you can easily see the $4b QoQ growth. That is the constant there since 2022. Blackwell will add additional supply next year. I don't think Hopper wills top shipping and I don't think demand will fall. So next year QoQ absolute growth could go up which will probably surprise to the upside.
- mjfl 2y ago"Buy the rumor, sell the news"
- usaar333 2y agoThe question is if they are impressive for a company worth $3.1 trillion. Annualizing this quarter's earnings it has a P/E of 45. And earnings "only" grew at 60% annualized, slower than in the past. (Revenue growth is also a bit slower as a percentage) So market likely sees decelerating growth which can't justify such a high P/E. e.g. if growth fell to say 30% YOY in a year, nvda would be seen as overvalued today.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> Annualizing this quarter's earnings it has a P/E of 45. And earnings "only" grew at 60% annualized, slower than in the past That's a PEG ratio of 1.5 [1], below the S&P 500's forward 2.63 [2]. (EDIT: It's 1.4x [3].) Wild times. [1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp [2] https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/spgi/price-earnings-peg-ratios https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/spgi/price-ear... [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41384923 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41384923
- usaar333 2y agoIsn't spgi the company not the index? I'm seeing 17% projected growth in earnings: https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_earnings_per_share_ttm_forward_estimate https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_earnings_per_share_ttm... P/e is 24. ($493 billion quarterly earnings, $47 trillion market cap). - and yes, nvda is literally alone 6% of sp500 earnings. Peg is 1.4 as a comparable to the way I calculated Nvidia.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> Isn't spgi the company not the index? Yes. Yes it is.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> not sure why it's down in AH It could be due to gross margins, though they're pretty much in line with estimates [1]. I'd guess it's noise from options rebalancing [2]. [1] https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-forecasts-third-quarter-revenue-above-estimates-2024-08-28/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-forecasts-third-qu... [2] https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-results-could-spur-record-300-billion-swing-shares-options-show-2024-08-27/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-results-could-spur...
- tedunangst 2y agoAre the hedgies short laddering to inflict max pain?
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> hedgies short laddering to inflict max pain Probably not unless there is a lot of retail on one side of the 0D options book. Also, it would be a reverse squeeze, not short ladder, which is largely a mythical beast invented to salve day traders.
- joegibbs 2y agoEveryone already knew they were going to be impressive so the stock price reflected that, and so it fell because they were expecting it to be slightly more impressive than it already was.
- distortionfield 2y agoBuy the rumor, sell the news strikes again
- Ologn 2y agoThe last big surprise were the May 2023 earnings, it went from closing at $31.26 to closing at $38.95 the next day (up 24% in one day) after the earnings announcement. Now it is the company with the second largest market cap in the world and enormous growth, so analysts are watching it more and talking about it more. Results are more baked in. Also, it was announced the next-gen Blackwell chips had a flaw found late in the design and will probably be delayed three months, which will also affect revenues.
- nadermx 2y agoWelcome to the blue chip club Nvidia, where you smash earnings, and the market is like "meh"
- a13n 2y agoI mean when your PE ratio is 75 expectations are about as high as they can be
- basiccalendar74 2y agoForward PE (assuming same earnings as current quarter for full year) is around 40. Trailing PE can be misleading in high growth phases.
- usaar333 2y agoEPS is $0.68. forward P/e is 43.5 based on after hours pricing ($118)
- roboror 2y agoIt feels slightly wrong to see this on HN, pending how the comments go.
- zooq_ai 2y agoNvidia earnings is directly tied to 100% of HNers compensation and employment more so than any political news.
- barbecue_sauce 2y agoNot mine.
- zooq_ai 2y agodelusional to think it isn't
- suzakus 2y agonot everyone works on ai or ai adjacent products, or even tech on this site
- fragmede 2y agotech is a large component of the overall economy though, so like it or not, we're all attached to this. I'm not a banker investing into mortgage-backed-securities either, but the 2008 GFC still affected me.
- averageRoyalty 2y agoYou've moved the goalposts. GP specifically said "directly tied to". You're discussing indirect investments/earnings/impact.
- flappyeagle 2y agoThat’s an extremely shortsighted and narrow view of things
- pfooti 2y agoI really don't understand how fiscal years work. We are in Q3 of 2024. Is the AI just predicting what their Q2 2025 results will be?
- dagmx 2y agoFiscal years are unaligned with regular years and are usually offset by a few months. Different companies may choose different start months for their fiscal year. It doesn’t mean much beyond their accounting processes.
- mjfl 2y agoFiscal year ends in September to avoid having to finalize documents over the Christmas holidays.
- averageRoyalty 2y agoIt's worth noting too the fiscal year varies greatly between countries.
- xnx 2y agoWhat is the case for continued growth of Nvidia? Every single sizeable entity (Google, Microsoft, Intel, AMD, etc.) is working furiously to replace them. I can imagine plenty of reasons that Nvidia sales would remain strong, but I understand less where more growth would come from.
- paulmd 2y agoNone of those things has successfully built a platform in the way nvidia has with CUDA, although Microsoft is well-positioned to do it eventually. The reason you’re confused is you are thinking of the peers of NVIDIA as being AMD and Intel and not Apple and Nintendo and Sony, or mainframe vendors, etc. The reason they are different from AMD or Intel (or I think we can throw Xbox into this pile too too) uses AMD or intel because they want to use AMD or intel, they use them because they are a convenient compile target for code that you’ve gone to the effort of making very portable. And that’s a commodity market, where the other things are platforms with an organic userbase that’s not just there because it’s the cheapest thing. (this is true of gaming gpus too btw, other than AMD APUs being very compelling for handheld and laptop gaming, and maybe Lunar Lake. whereas people want to use nvidia - that’s the actual meaning of “mindshare” and not the “mind control field” AMD fans assume mindshare to be. People who use the product for the product’s sake and not just pure cost expediency.) The other thing I think people are sleeping on is the mediatek partnerships. They already announced three different markets (some are already launched) - automotive, smartphone SOCs, now monitor controllers too. They will almost certainly be the vessel for Nvidia’s desktop chip next year too - functionally they are partnered with /oem for nvidia now. Nvidia already has PNY to be their Foxconn/Sapphire, now they have Mediatek to do the boring plumbing work in their designs. Nvidia simply doesn’t have the staffing to tap these markets and staffing up with a bunch of boring suit and tie workers would destroy what makes nvidia tick, now they can go tap these other markets. I think people really really overstated Nvidia’s unwillingness to license their IP etc. Buying ARM was a play for getting GeForce as the default graphics IP for basic smartphones and shit, and giving CUDA access to that market. Well, getting your IP into mediatek is the next best thing. Thinking Jensen wanted to buy arm to sell more tegras is pleb tier thinking and ambition. Nvidia didn’t pony up $40 billion to burn it all down. That’s fucking stupid. There’s obviously a point where it gets stupid, but nvidia is genuinely still a company with a huge amount of growth potential and thinking they can sustainably lock in most of their current earnings isn’t too crazy. The real counterweight is that it’s a one man show and Jensen is getting old. But it seems like maybe Catanzaro is being positioned as a potential heir, what with him being the public face of dlss as well as the AI effort as a whole there. He seems like a logical choice of heir.
- gz5 2y agoForget about the market reaction for a minutes, which is always difficult to interpret. More holistically, aren't we underestimating their dev ecosystems (CUDA etc.)? Think of the dev ecosystem effects in all the various permutations, e.g. from Windows or Apple to AWS to more granular like PyTorch. Those advantages aren't easily eliminated just by more competitors or even 'better' competitors.
- TheAlchemist 2y agoReactions to earnings are always a bit random. But holicistally, if you were to buy the entire Nvidia company today, even if those advantages continue untouched for the next 10 years, and competition doesn't catch up, and the AI boom continues ... you're still not getting your money back. That's how high the valuation is.
- p1esk 2y agoDo you assume the current growth rate?
- jauntywundrkind 2y agoJim Keller calls CUDA NVidia's swamp (not their moat) and I think that's so so so accurate. Nvidia's fief has a lot of folks in it, who've built sloppy stuff all over the place because they can. Most of that won't get replaced. But the modern tooling like PyTorch and its underlying JAX doesn't need or care about this legacy. The future can build far more intimately & with deliberation to folks who haven't such large swamps around their ecosystems. We can tune systems more efficiently & carefully when our vendors don't keep us so so far away from the core hardware. Nvidia has to keep maintaining this huge footprint of software, keep it going themselves, supporting a vast legacy, while everyone else gets to innovate forward, with much better access to the hardware.
- Mc91 2y ago> Nvidia has to keep maintaining this huge footprint of software, keep it going themselves, supporting a vast legacy, while everyone else gets to innovate forward, with much better access to the hardware. When I hit an input box on my phone, a keyboard pops up on the screen, with the first row saying QWERTYUIOP, just like the Sholes and Glidden typewriter of 1878. I'm waiting for innovation on this first, then I'll look for innovation beyond CUDA.
- croes 2y ago75% Gross margin