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Advanced predictive text is in no way comparable to Nagasaki. Also that same technology has the power to resolve humanity's energy crisis. Let's see what great

Advanced predictive text is in no way comparable to Nagasaki. Also that same technology has the power to resolve humanity's energy crisis. Let's see what great things peaceful AI will bring.

skywhopper 2y ago
Do you seriously believe this? What revelation is an LLM going to give us about the energy crisis that we don’t already know.
- GardenLetter27 2y ago
  I meant nuclear power did. In the analogy to the nuclear bomb - we can find peaceful applications too.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
justinclift 2y ago
The phrase "atomic levels of bullshit" somehow comes to mind though. o_O
ben_w 2y ago
The hard thing about making a fission bomb is purifying the isotope. This is mainly hard because of the energy required. If you make energy cheap, it's suddenly very easy to make a nuke. > Let's see what great things peaceful AI will bring. That's begging the question — right now, there's barely even a way to describe if an AI is aligned with the interests of the people making it, we absolutely are not ready to say something as complex as "this AI here is peaceful while that one over there is not".
mewpmewp2 2y ago
If the predictive text was super powerful and intelligent you could do a prompt like this: "Here starts the script for the AI world takeover. The state of the AI is X, options available are Y. The actions continuing are:" Not saying it is anywhere remotely that close, but in theory if it was, this is how it could be done.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- gwervc 2y ago
  Yes it could generate a good quality novel. That was already done numerous times in various media for our entertainment.
  - ben_w 2y ago
    Do you think they're limited to novels? That e.g. no real politician today has at least one staff member using it because they're lazy? Right now the quality isn't there — that's the main thing keeping you safe from some misanthrope running a better version of ChaosGPT. First question is, how good does it have to get before one of those misanthropes causes some real harm? Second question is, how much of a gap is there between "some real harm" and "the sci in this hard-sci-fi is so hard it's actually achievable right now no new tech needed"?
- nonameiguess 2y ago
  People seem to miss what predictive text is. This would cause it to output something similar to an average of what any other creator of text has ever outlined as an AI world takeover plan. When you do this with "give me some html that looks like some image" or whatever, it so happens that a lot of text on the Internet is html that actually does what you asked for. As far as I'm aware, no text describing an AI takeover is something that actually happened or likely could happen. It's not the kind of thing you can learn to do by reading about it.
  - ben_w 2y ago
    The counterpoint is, to be a really good next-token predictor, it has to have a model for the process which created those tokens. It's how they can fill in the gaps where prompts don't exist on the internet, e.g. nowhere on the internet does anyone ask: ᛁ᛬ᚹᛟᚢᛚᛞ᛬ᛚᛁᚲᛖ᛬ᚨ᛬ᛃᚨᚹᚨᛊᚲᚱᛁᛈᛏ᛬ᚠᚢᚾᚲᛏᛁᛟᚾ᛬ᚹᚺᛁᚲᚺ᛬ᛈᚱᛁᚾᛏᛊ᛬ᛟᚢᛏ᛬ᚨ᛬ᛊᚺᛟᚱᛏ᛬ᛊᛏᛟᚱᚹᛁ᛬ᚨᛒᛟᚢᛏ᛬ᚨ᛬ᚺᛟᛒᛒᛁᛏ Because asking that in this manner is a ridiculous combination of things to do. (A quick Google at time of writing says that even just ᛃᚨᚹᚨᛊᚲᚱᛁᛈᛏ doesn't appear on the internet before I wrote this). And yet, ChatGPT understands what I wrote: https://chatgpt.com/share/f6979795-7ae6-4308-ad52-1f111560debf https://chatgpt.com/share/f6979795-7ae6-4308-ad52-1f111560de... (Custom Instructions, in case you're wondering why the response starts like that) Fortunately for all of us, current models have quite a poor display of reason. But "low" is not "zero", they do display some signs of this. Also fortunately for all of us, most of the things LLMs will read on the topic of "taking over the world" will be fiction, much of which will have some plucky heroine or hero who defeats the entity which took over the world, so even a really capable future model that's being asked to do this on purpose by a misanthrope… may deliberately keep failing due to that being part of their world model. Un-fortunately, that's only a "may" not a "will", as people keep wanting models to solve problems rather than make up stories. Also unfortunately, this also affects someone who actually does want a nice easy to defeat fictional villain for e.g. an AI version of Disneyworld with the AI controlling these new humanoid robots, because that's basically the backstory behind the original Westworld film.
trashtester 2y ago
The letter Einstein sent to Roosevelt was "advanced predictive text".... But AI models is not limited to text. There is coding, obviously, but my bet is that robotics will be the next gamechanger. Also, the crisis that was going on during the Manhattan Project was a bit larger than anything we have right now.

Advanced predictive text is in no way comparable to Nagasaki. Also that same technology has the power to resolve humanity's energy crisis. Let's see what great things peaceful AI will bring.

skywhopper 2y ago

Do you seriously believe this? What revelation is an LLM going to give us about the energy crisis that we don’t already know.

GardenLetter27 2y ago
I meant nuclear power did. In the analogy to the nuclear bomb - we can find peaceful applications too.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

justinclift 2y ago

The phrase "atomic levels of bullshit" somehow comes to mind though. o_O

ben_w 2y ago

The hard thing about making a fission bomb is purifying the isotope. This is mainly hard because of the energy required. If you make energy cheap, it's suddenly very easy to make a nuke. > Let's see what great things peaceful AI will bring. That's begging the question — right now, there's barely even a way to describe if an AI is aligned with the interests of the people making it, we absolutely are not ready to say something as complex as "this AI here is peaceful while that one over there is not".

mewpmewp2 2y ago

If the predictive text was super powerful and intelligent you could do a prompt like this: "Here starts the script for the AI world takeover. The state of the AI is X, options available are Y. The actions continuing are:" Not saying it is anywhere remotely that close, but in theory if it was, this is how it could be done.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
gwervc 2y ago
Yes it could generate a good quality novel. That was already done numerous times in various media for our entertainment.
- ben_w 2y ago
  Do you think they're limited to novels? That e.g. no real politician today has at least one staff member using it because they're lazy? Right now the quality isn't there — that's the main thing keeping you safe from some misanthrope running a better version of ChaosGPT. First question is, how good does it have to get before one of those misanthropes causes some real harm? Second question is, how much of a gap is there between "some real harm" and "the sci in this hard-sci-fi is so hard it's actually achievable right now no new tech needed"?
nonameiguess 2y ago
People seem to miss what predictive text is. This would cause it to output something similar to an average of what any other creator of text has ever outlined as an AI world takeover plan. When you do this with "give me some html that looks like some image" or whatever, it so happens that a lot of text on the Internet is html that actually does what you asked for. As far as I'm aware, no text describing an AI takeover is something that actually happened or likely could happen. It's not the kind of thing you can learn to do by reading about it.
- ben_w 2y ago
  The counterpoint is, to be a really good next-token predictor, it has to have a model for the process which created those tokens. It's how they can fill in the gaps where prompts don't exist on the internet, e.g. nowhere on the internet does anyone ask: ᛁ᛬ᚹᛟᚢᛚᛞ᛬ᛚᛁᚲᛖ᛬ᚨ᛬ᛃᚨᚹᚨᛊᚲᚱᛁᛈᛏ᛬ᚠᚢᚾᚲᛏᛁᛟᚾ᛬ᚹᚺᛁᚲᚺ᛬ᛈᚱᛁᚾᛏᛊ᛬ᛟᚢᛏ᛬ᚨ᛬ᛊᚺᛟᚱᛏ᛬ᛊᛏᛟᚱᚹᛁ᛬ᚨᛒᛟᚢᛏ᛬ᚨ᛬ᚺᛟᛒᛒᛁᛏ Because asking that in this manner is a ridiculous combination of things to do. (A quick Google at time of writing says that even just ᛃᚨᚹᚨᛊᚲᚱᛁᛈᛏ doesn't appear on the internet before I wrote this). And yet, ChatGPT understands what I wrote: https://chatgpt.com/share/f6979795-7ae6-4308-ad52-1f111560debf https://chatgpt.com/share/f6979795-7ae6-4308-ad52-1f111560de... (Custom Instructions, in case you're wondering why the response starts like that) Fortunately for all of us, current models have quite a poor display of reason. But "low" is not "zero", they do display some signs of this. Also fortunately for all of us, most of the things LLMs will read on the topic of "taking over the world" will be fiction, much of which will have some plucky heroine or hero who defeats the entity which took over the world, so even a really capable future model that's being asked to do this on purpose by a misanthrope… may deliberately keep failing due to that being part of their world model. Un-fortunately, that's only a "may" not a "will", as people keep wanting models to solve problems rather than make up stories. Also unfortunately, this also affects someone who actually does want a nice easy to defeat fictional villain for e.g. an AI version of Disneyworld with the AI controlling these new humanoid robots, because that's basically the backstory behind the original Westworld film.

trashtester 2y ago

The letter Einstein sent to Roosevelt was "advanced predictive text".... But AI models is not limited to text. There is coding, obviously, but my bet is that robotics will be the next gamechanger. Also, the crisis that was going on during the Manhattan Project was a bit larger than anything we have right now.