Just estimate the probability of payout. Yes you can do this for non-repeating, hard-to-model events: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-continued-defense-of-n

Just estimate the probability of payout. Yes you can do this for non-repeating, hard-to-model events: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-continued-defense-of-non-frequentist https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-continued-defense-of-non... I do it all the time without making actuarial tables, as do insurance companies.