The 20% chance of success isn't typically 20% chance of a moonshot paying off, but rather of a project being successful and achieving it's cost saving/productiv

The 20% chance of success isn't typically 20% chance of a moonshot paying off, but rather of a project being successful and achieving it's cost saving/productivity and user acceptance goals. I don't think your Kodak example works very well here - they were a classic business school case of not realizing what business they were really in, but most uses of AI (whether one means LLMs, or something else like most of your examples) are going to be automation/productivity enhancement, not "pivotal" changes.