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But the man in black leather said that people don’t need to learn to code because AI will now do all the coding. Who should we believe? Also, it is funny seein

But the man in black leather said that people don’t need to learn to code because AI will now do all the coding. Who should we believe? Also, it is funny seeing how all the AI true believers in this thread coping. I am going to go short Nvidia after its earnings whatever the earning results. It is such an obvious trade.

Vecr 2y ago
Shorts are never an obvious trade, the downside risk is too high, even if you're eventually directionaly right.
- bob1029 2y ago
  It is impossible to overstate how risky options are in this situation. The implied volatility for NVDA is astronomical. Put differently, the OP isn't the first one with the idea to short them, so this incredible demand for options drives the premiums up substantially. That stack of (temporary) paper you are paying for is likely way more expensive than you think it is.
- wnc3141 2y ago
  Shorts I think are only useful if there is an imminent and concrete devaluation event such as defaulting on credit etc. A general predicted market downturn is hard to tie to stock behavior, especially within a concrete time frame.
HarHarVeryFunny 2y ago
NVIDIA may be overvalued, but they can probably "grow into" this valuation with ongoing industry adoption and inference volume, even if LLMs don't get a whole bunch more capable than they currently are. Google now selling corporate Gemini annual licenses for $200/pop to help write e-mails and marketing drivel, etc.
- bugbuddy 2y ago
  How many signups is Google getting for that? Will it sustain their capital expenditure and cover the depreciation? All sever equipments come with an expiration date. Based on my experience, all the LLMs have an initial cool factor that wears off pretty quickly. The productivity boost is questionable at best and downright negative in many cases. This is true in many AI projects. Just look at the Computer Vision geniuses that gave us Amazon Go Indian Mechanical Turks.
  - jeffbee 2y ago
    > All sever equipments come with an expiration date Corporate mindset. When I worked at a major cloud provider the platforms group evaluated the ongoing economic cost/benefit of existing machines and every year the decision to retire ancient machines was "not yet". A suit-wearing corporate IT guy gets new hardware every 3 years. GCP will still rent you a Sandy Bridge machine from 2011. EC2 still has Haswell CPUs in its mainstream offering and if you really want them they have Harpertown Xeon from 2008 available.
    - bugbuddy 2y ago
      >”not yet” “Because we still have suckers paying us large cloud bills for ancient hardware.”
      - jeffbee 2y ago
        No, they were all for internal workloads.
  - HarHarVeryFunny 2y ago
    I also question the actual productivity benefit, but I'm not sure most large corporations are so rational in their decision making. Once they've bought Gemini and CoPilot licenses for whole swathes of the business (something which it seems we're still at the beginning stages of), then how likely are they to reevaluate and go back to the old "manual" way of doing things? It's a bit like the "no-brainer" decision to outsource developer jobs to India, based on lower salaries, and then subsequent failure to measure productivity to see if it is really paying off.
Kiro 2y ago
Coding is one area where AI has been successful. This is about other areas where AI has been unnecessarily inserted. You're misdirecting your Schadenfreude.
- bugbuddy 2y ago
  > Coding is one area where AI has been successful. I have my doubts about this. Do you have actual good data for this? Most devs including streamers like primeagen and others seem to think Devin is a joke.
  - Kiro 2y ago
    I don't know about Devin but check this tweet from Andrej Karpathy: https://x.com/karpathy/status/1827143768459637073 https://x.com/karpathy/status/1827143768459637073
    - bugbuddy 2y ago
      Still doubtful because that person is biased toward showing AI in a positive light.
      - Kiro 2y ago
        Sure, but if AI was actually useless for coding I doubt we would see numbers like this in the Stack Overflow Developer Survey: https://survey.stackoverflow.co/2024/ai/ https://survey.stackoverflow.co/2024/ai/
        bugbuddy 2y ago
        These data points are not a good indicator of AI being useful because we don’t have a baseline to compare it to. The baseline is the same IDE tooling support we see with copilot but with more traditional tech like search engines and API docs search. Dev productivity without relying on AI is a market few cared about until AI money came along looking for problems to solve.

Vecr 2y ago

Shorts are never an obvious trade, the downside risk is too high, even if you're eventually directionaly right.

bob1029 2y ago
It is impossible to overstate how risky options are in this situation. The implied volatility for NVDA is astronomical. Put differently, the OP isn't the first one with the idea to short them, so this incredible demand for options drives the premiums up substantially. That stack of (temporary) paper you are paying for is likely way more expensive than you think it is.
wnc3141 2y ago
Shorts I think are only useful if there is an imminent and concrete devaluation event such as defaulting on credit etc. A general predicted market downturn is hard to tie to stock behavior, especially within a concrete time frame.

HarHarVeryFunny 2y ago

NVIDIA may be overvalued, but they can probably "grow into" this valuation with ongoing industry adoption and inference volume, even if LLMs don't get a whole bunch more capable than they currently are. Google now selling corporate Gemini annual licenses for $200/pop to help write e-mails and marketing drivel, etc.

bugbuddy 2y ago
How many signups is Google getting for that? Will it sustain their capital expenditure and cover the depreciation? All sever equipments come with an expiration date. Based on my experience, all the LLMs have an initial cool factor that wears off pretty quickly. The productivity boost is questionable at best and downright negative in many cases. This is true in many AI projects. Just look at the Computer Vision geniuses that gave us Amazon Go Indian Mechanical Turks.
- jeffbee 2y ago
  > All sever equipments come with an expiration date Corporate mindset. When I worked at a major cloud provider the platforms group evaluated the ongoing economic cost/benefit of existing machines and every year the decision to retire ancient machines was "not yet". A suit-wearing corporate IT guy gets new hardware every 3 years. GCP will still rent you a Sandy Bridge machine from 2011. EC2 still has Haswell CPUs in its mainstream offering and if you really want them they have Harpertown Xeon from 2008 available.
  - bugbuddy 2y ago
    >”not yet” “Because we still have suckers paying us large cloud bills for ancient hardware.”
    - jeffbee 2y ago
      No, they were all for internal workloads.
- HarHarVeryFunny 2y ago
  I also question the actual productivity benefit, but I'm not sure most large corporations are so rational in their decision making. Once they've bought Gemini and CoPilot licenses for whole swathes of the business (something which it seems we're still at the beginning stages of), then how likely are they to reevaluate and go back to the old "manual" way of doing things? It's a bit like the "no-brainer" decision to outsource developer jobs to India, based on lower salaries, and then subsequent failure to measure productivity to see if it is really paying off.

Kiro 2y ago

Coding is one area where AI has been successful. This is about other areas where AI has been unnecessarily inserted. You're misdirecting your Schadenfreude.

bugbuddy 2y ago
> Coding is one area where AI has been successful. I have my doubts about this. Do you have actual good data for this? Most devs including streamers like primeagen and others seem to think Devin is a joke.
- Kiro 2y ago
  I don't know about Devin but check this tweet from Andrej Karpathy: https://x.com/karpathy/status/1827143768459637073 https://x.com/karpathy/status/1827143768459637073
  - bugbuddy 2y ago
    Still doubtful because that person is biased toward showing AI in a positive light.
    - Kiro 2y ago
      Sure, but if AI was actually useless for coding I doubt we would see numbers like this in the Stack Overflow Developer Survey: https://survey.stackoverflow.co/2024/ai/ https://survey.stackoverflow.co/2024/ai/
      - bugbuddy 2y ago
        These data points are not a good indicator of AI being useful because we don’t have a baseline to compare it to. The baseline is the same IDE tooling support we see with copilot but with more traditional tech like search engines and API docs search. Dev productivity without relying on AI is a market few cared about until AI money came along looking for problems to solve.