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The part that bothers me is that other forecasters have been feeding us mild predictions for a long time. They have in effect basically lying to us about how ma
by OutOfHere 2y ago
The part that bothers me is that other forecasters have been feeding us mild predictions for a long time. They have in effect basically lying to us about how manageable things are going to remain. Slowly the forecasts have been catching up to reality.
As for the timeframe, the rise by 7.2C can come within a few centuries. Feedback loops can then slowly carry it to +13.9C over a longer timeframe of many hundred to a few thousands of years. This is for a single CO2 doubling.
- bryanlarsen 2y agoBeing wrong about predictions is not lying. And we don't yet know that these new predictions aren't the ones that are wrong.
- OutOfHere 2y agoThe point is that the predictions by others have been getting higher over time. It is the basis for calling them mild.
- bryanlarsen 2y agoThe IPCC predictions have been getting lower over time, not higher. The upper bounds of the IPCC predictions used to be 6-8 degrees, now it is 4.5 degrees.
- Yizahi 2y agoAccording to some popular science bloggers the IPCC models even now include so called "hot models" which predict around 5.5C temperature increase as compared to the 3-4C increase of other models in the same suite. (I forgot over which timeframe was that number, but anyway it's the same for all models) And these "hot" models are currently ignored by IPCC, not counted into the final prediction. But according to that same blogger there are some measurements which match "hot" models in the recent years.