4 ms·
Summary: > the AI algorithm correctly predicted 70% of earthquakes a week before they happened during a seven-month trial > The outcome was a weekly forecast
by WhyNotHugo 2y ago
Summary:
> the AI algorithm correctly predicted 70% of earthquakes a week before they happened during a seven-month trial
> The outcome was a weekly forecast in which the AI successfully predicted 14 earthquakes within about 200 miles of where it estimated they would happen
> It missed one earthquake and gave eight false warnings.
So about 36% are false positives (which aren't terrible in this particular field) and about 6% false negatives.
This doesn't sound bad, but I'd love to know the precision of previous techniques / prior art.
- insane_dreamer 2y ago> 6% false negatives that's probably the most important number, and quite good
- BobaFloutist 2y agoIf false positives are too high though, people start ignoring warnings. I think tornado prediction suffers a lot from this.