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Generally I agree with you. A lot of my comments to rent and property value has been that pretty much any fund in listed property trusts either has done, or sho
by ggm 2y ago
Generally I agree with you. A lot of my comments to rent and property value has been that pretty much any fund in listed property trusts either has done, or should do a massive write-down to book value.
The unwillingness to own the decline in value is also one of the reasons viable shop fronts stay empty: The terms of the commercial loan are tied very strongly to value imputed by rent, even un-earned. if you list it cheaper, it's worth less than you said when you borrowed against it.
My point of divergence is that to the extent everyone has superannuation, company pension, non-government future retirement investment, some of it will be tied up in LPT. The Canadian government pension fund, My university sector pension fund here in Australia, the UK pension fund, they all have a component of this, and they have exposure to this worldwide. Thus, the "whining" is not really confined to just commercial real estate industry: My future self is looking at my net worth wondering how long it takes to come back from the write down.
But, write it down we must do.
- AnthonyMouse 2y ago> My future self is looking at my net worth wondering how long it takes to come back from the write down. The positive side of this is that real estate costs are a component of all other costs. So if real estate prices come down, so should all other prices. If your net worth is nominally 35% lower but now everything costs 35% less, what have you lost? Not only that, artificial scarcity inhibits real growth. So the sooner you do the write down the sooner the real value of your net worth can reach the hypothetical value it has now.