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50 Years Later: Remembering How the Future Looked in 1974

16 points by ohjeez 2y ago

Yawrehto 2y ago
Retrofuturism is always fun. In a similar vein, I'd like to recommend https://paleofuture.com/ https://paleofuture.com/.
bediger4000 2y ago
"Sakharov also predicted telescopes set up in space, though he seemed to think they’d be installed in “space laboratories." Everybody seems to have failed to anticipate how much we would automate, and how fast that tech would progress. People on Mars and select asteroids? No, robots.
- shiroiushi 2y ago
  >People on Mars and select asteroids? No, robots. No, not really. People back then weren't predicting 1 or 2 people on Mars and select asteroids, they were predicting large settlements on the Moon and maybe Mars. Instead, we have a small handful of robotic explorers in those places (and sampling asteroids occasionally). The scale is absolutely nothing like what was predicted. We haven't "automated" as you say: if we had, we'd have armies of robots doing real work, like building habitats for humans, or harvesting asteroids for resources. A couple of very slow robotic exploration vehicles just isn't the same thing. I don't see real automation in space, just some small attempts at using a small amount of automation to avoid sending humans anywhere and save money.
JohnFen 2y ago
I remember being a child in 1974 and I was really looking forward to the future. It was going to be amazing in every way! We did get better toys, but in every other respect the actual future has been very disappointing.
- melling 2y ago
  Definitely! What happened to the 21st century? It’s nothing like what I expected half a century ago. 1924 to 1974 was impressive. From 1974 to 2024 I feel like we didn’t try very hard.
  - dustincoates 2y ago
    You have access to as much knowledge as you could ever want in your pocket at all times and you can ask a computer to create a photo for you of anything you can imagine. We've sequenced the human genome. We've got video games! There aren't flying cars, but these last fifty years haven't been so bad.
    - melling 2y ago
      Is this some sort of joke? Try comparing 1924 to 1974. Jets, supersonic flight, nuclear energy, satellites, computers, man on the moon We’ve got video games. lol
      - theshackleford 2y ago
        Nice cherry picking.
        melling 2y ago
        Maybe I should have gone with penicillin, television, digital computer, helicopter,…
      - dustincoates 2y ago
        I mean, sure, if you ignore the rest, you might be left with the idea that video games were all we got out of the past fifty years. Not that it's a competition. The era between 1924 and 1974 being a big one for splashy technological advancements doesn't negate that there have been advancements or not trying very hard in the half century that followed.
DrNosferatu 2y ago
Could they ever imagine that the expectation in 2024 would be that, in general, people would get poorer?
bonoboTP 2y ago
Public predictions like this are less about the future than about the social condition and zeitgeist of the present. They project to the future whatever they think will make them look good.
tmnvix 2y ago
Not mentioned in the article, but one common prediction was that we would all be working less thanks to increased productivity. Well, the increased productivity part was right. The working less part not so much. An explanation I've heard and find intuitively plausible is that as productivity increased, so did available credit. Private debt has increased substantially so that all of the extra wealth just goes to debt servicing. If you look at what has happened to the FIRE industries, this tracks. TLDR; Extra productivity is captured by those with capital to lend.

16 points by ohjeez 2y ago

Retrofuturism is always fun. In a similar vein, I'd like to recommend https://paleofuture.com/ https://paleofuture.com/.

bediger4000 2y ago

"Sakharov also predicted telescopes set up in space, though he seemed to think they’d be installed in “space laboratories." Everybody seems to have failed to anticipate how much we would automate, and how fast that tech would progress. People on Mars and select asteroids? No, robots.

shiroiushi 2y ago
>People on Mars and select asteroids? No, robots. No, not really. People back then weren't predicting 1 or 2 people on Mars and select asteroids, they were predicting large settlements on the Moon and maybe Mars. Instead, we have a small handful of robotic explorers in those places (and sampling asteroids occasionally). The scale is absolutely nothing like what was predicted. We haven't "automated" as you say: if we had, we'd have armies of robots doing real work, like building habitats for humans, or harvesting asteroids for resources. A couple of very slow robotic exploration vehicles just isn't the same thing. I don't see real automation in space, just some small attempts at using a small amount of automation to avoid sending humans anywhere and save money.

JohnFen 2y ago

I remember being a child in 1974 and I was really looking forward to the future. It was going to be amazing in every way! We did get better toys, but in every other respect the actual future has been very disappointing.

melling 2y ago
Definitely! What happened to the 21st century? It’s nothing like what I expected half a century ago. 1924 to 1974 was impressive. From 1974 to 2024 I feel like we didn’t try very hard.
- dustincoates 2y ago
  You have access to as much knowledge as you could ever want in your pocket at all times and you can ask a computer to create a photo for you of anything you can imagine. We've sequenced the human genome. We've got video games! There aren't flying cars, but these last fifty years haven't been so bad.
  - melling 2y ago
    Is this some sort of joke? Try comparing 1924 to 1974. Jets, supersonic flight, nuclear energy, satellites, computers, man on the moon We’ve got video games. lol
    - theshackleford 2y ago
      Nice cherry picking.
      - melling 2y ago
        Maybe I should have gone with penicillin, television, digital computer, helicopter,…
    - dustincoates 2y ago
      I mean, sure, if you ignore the rest, you might be left with the idea that video games were all we got out of the past fifty years. Not that it's a competition. The era between 1924 and 1974 being a big one for splashy technological advancements doesn't negate that there have been advancements or not trying very hard in the half century that followed.

DrNosferatu 2y ago

Could they ever imagine that the expectation in 2024 would be that, in general, people would get poorer?

bonoboTP 2y ago

Public predictions like this are less about the future than about the social condition and zeitgeist of the present. They project to the future whatever they think will make them look good.

tmnvix 2y ago

Not mentioned in the article, but one common prediction was that we would all be working less thanks to increased productivity. Well, the increased productivity part was right. The working less part not so much. An explanation I've heard and find intuitively plausible is that as productivity increased, so did available credit. Private debt has increased substantially so that all of the extra wealth just goes to debt servicing. If you look at what has happened to the FIRE industries, this tracks. TLDR; Extra productivity is captured by those with capital to lend.