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I think it’s a bad comparison. The author cherry picks the SV area which is not indicative of the country as a whole. (And it goes without saying that the explo

by bumby 2y ago

I think it’s a bad comparison. The author cherry picks the SV area which is not indicative of the country as a whole. (And it goes without saying that the explosion of tech in the area coincides with the decades being compared). The author also makes no mention of the change in preferences that accompanied these prove changes. E.g., the average house size has increased dramatically.

chrsw 2y ago
I don't think what happened in SV is completely unique though. I live on the other coast and the price of housing maybe isn't as bad as SV but it is still outrageous. And I think some people lucky enough to afford it are buying in on the promise that will be even worse in the future so they can sell off.
- bumby 2y ago
  All I’m saying is that the degree is unique. By and large, home prices have went up in other parts of the country but not by 10x like implied by the author. Once you strip away the preference piece (ie, measure by $/sqft rather than absolute values) the effect is still there but much less pronounced.
  - chrsw 2y ago
    That's true. My point was if you're part of the population that has a good job and still can't afford a home where you live, because of how we've allowed this situation in the housing market to happen, and which is a large population of people, then I don't think your zip code matters very much.
recursivedoubts 2y ago
the housing/income ratio of the US is at an all time high: https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/ https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-inco...
- randomdata 2y ago
  Fairly low with respect to average personal income, though.
  - DHPersonal 2y ago
    Average personal income of the entire population of the country, millionaires and billionaires included? If so, wouldn't that deeply skew the results?
    - randomdata 2y ago
      Skew in what way?
      - DHPersonal 2y ago
        > Skew in what way? https://introductorystats.wordpress.com/2011/09/04/when-bill-gates-walks-into-a-bar/ https://introductorystats.wordpress.com/2011/09/04/when-bill...
        randomdata 2y ago
        Implying that Bill Gates buys a lot of real estate? That's probably true – he does have nearly 300,000 acres of farmland after all – but I'm not sure really answers the question.
    - nairboon 2y ago
      The chart says it's median income.
      - randomdata 2y ago
        The first chart is median household income, but the second chart is average personal income.
  - recursivedoubts 2y ago
maxsilver 2y ago
> The author cherry picks the SV area which is not indicative of the country as a whole. The whole country is SV now, plus or minus a few percentage points. Even in nowheresville-Michigan, any house near any job costs about 4 to 5 times what it did 15 years ago. We even have cities that have lost total population and the prices still skyrocketed. Even if you scope it to just say, a specific small town -- a house that cost $80k in 2012, that exact same house now costs $360k in 2024, and wages did not rise 400% to compensate. Tech folks sit in SV with a $200k/yr income and think, "ah, see, Michigan is so affordable". But the people here are holding Masters Degrees and student debt and make $45k/yr, $360k is every bit as out of reach to them, as a $1.5 million house is to you in SV. Sure, not every place is SV from a literal perspective. But from a relative percent basis, nearly every city in every state in the US is now experiencing their own SV-like housing price explosion (regardless of whether their total population has grown or shrank, regardless of whether they have made it difficult to develop, or have been very open to new development, as most of Michigan has always been).
- randomdata 2y ago
  > But the people here are holding Masters Degrees and student debt I wonder how long before we finally admit that said student debt is the very source of money that has pushed home prices so high? Not backed by anything real and non-dischargeable makes it a dream for the benefactors.
  - iosguyryan 2y ago
    Huh? Debt. Paid to another entity that was not the house seller. Walk me through the logic.
    - randomdata 2y ago
      It turns out colleges don't burn the money they receive. They either invest it themselves or pass it on to the next guy to do the same.
  - rchaud 2y ago
    Student debt didn't cause the financial crisis of '08, opaque securitization of home mortgages did. That created a domino effect of brokers handing out variable-rate loans to people who didn't understand the terms. They didn't care about the deliquency rate because they could sell that mortgage to another party and make it their problem. The whole thing was a ticking time bomb. None of that applies to student loans because those aren't collateralized with a real asset the way home loans are.

by bumby 2y ago

chrsw 2y ago

I don't think what happened in SV is completely unique though. I live on the other coast and the price of housing maybe isn't as bad as SV but it is still outrageous. And I think some people lucky enough to afford it are buying in on the promise that will be even worse in the future so they can sell off.

bumby 2y ago
All I’m saying is that the degree is unique. By and large, home prices have went up in other parts of the country but not by 10x like implied by the author. Once you strip away the preference piece (ie, measure by $/sqft rather than absolute values) the effect is still there but much less pronounced.
- chrsw 2y ago
  That's true. My point was if you're part of the population that has a good job and still can't afford a home where you live, because of how we've allowed this situation in the housing market to happen, and which is a large population of people, then I don't think your zip code matters very much.

recursivedoubts 2y ago

the housing/income ratio of the US is at an all time high: https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/ https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-inco...

randomdata 2y ago
Fairly low with respect to average personal income, though.
- DHPersonal 2y ago
  Average personal income of the entire population of the country, millionaires and billionaires included? If so, wouldn't that deeply skew the results?
  - randomdata 2y ago
    Skew in what way?
    - DHPersonal 2y ago
      > Skew in what way? https://introductorystats.wordpress.com/2011/09/04/when-bill-gates-walks-into-a-bar/ https://introductorystats.wordpress.com/2011/09/04/when-bill...
      - randomdata 2y ago
        Implying that Bill Gates buys a lot of real estate? That's probably true – he does have nearly 300,000 acres of farmland after all – but I'm not sure really answers the question.
  - nairboon 2y ago
    The chart says it's median income.
    - randomdata 2y ago
      The first chart is median household income, but the second chart is average personal income.
- recursivedoubts 2y ago

maxsilver 2y ago

> The author cherry picks the SV area which is not indicative of the country as a whole. The whole country is SV now, plus or minus a few percentage points. Even in nowheresville-Michigan, any house near any job costs about 4 to 5 times what it did 15 years ago. We even have cities that have lost total population and the prices still skyrocketed. Even if you scope it to just say, a specific small town -- a house that cost $80k in 2012, that exact same house now costs $360k in 2024, and wages did not rise 400% to compensate. Tech folks sit in SV with a $200k/yr income and think, "ah, see, Michigan is so affordable". But the people here are holding Masters Degrees and student debt and make $45k/yr, $360k is every bit as out of reach to them, as a $1.5 million house is to you in SV. Sure, not every place is SV from a literal perspective. But from a relative percent basis, nearly every city in every state in the US is now experiencing their own SV-like housing price explosion (regardless of whether their total population has grown or shrank, regardless of whether they have made it difficult to develop, or have been very open to new development, as most of Michigan has always been).

randomdata 2y ago
> But the people here are holding Masters Degrees and student debt I wonder how long before we finally admit that said student debt is the very source of money that has pushed home prices so high? Not backed by anything real and non-dischargeable makes it a dream for the benefactors.
- iosguyryan 2y ago
  Huh? Debt. Paid to another entity that was not the house seller. Walk me through the logic.
  - randomdata 2y ago
    It turns out colleges don't burn the money they receive. They either invest it themselves or pass it on to the next guy to do the same.
- rchaud 2y ago
  Student debt didn't cause the financial crisis of '08, opaque securitization of home mortgages did. That created a domino effect of brokers handing out variable-rate loans to people who didn't understand the terms. They didn't care about the deliquency rate because they could sell that mortgage to another party and make it their problem. The whole thing was a ticking time bomb. None of that applies to student loans because those aren't collateralized with a real asset the way home loans are.