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> I made some claims, that invalidate the data the author is using to make claims, some were sourced, the others can be easily verified and are well known.
And
> I made some claims, that invalidate the data the author is using to make claims, some were sourced, the others can be easily verified and are well known.
And what I'm saying is that, as usual, pro-nuclear people like you (there are intelligent pro-nuclear people that are way less unbiased) will explain the situation by cherry picking explanation that fit their ideology rather than also accepting the elements that don't.
You had the opportunity to say "it's of course not just due to that but ...", but you did not, you really cherry pick as if the French situation is due to sabotage while it is in great part due to plenty of other factors, include intrinsic to the difficulty of nuclear.
And, sorry, I cannot really bring source so easily, because I work in the sector, and when I keep hearing someone casually saying "well, France difficulties is due to ... and ...", I don't make a note thinking "I need to keep the source for Kuinox in 3 years from now". I think it's a good proof that you are not working in the sector: the sector does not play the ridiculous "renewable vs nuclear" game, it knows it's way more complicated than that in consequence does not pretend one is better than the other. It's just not how it works.
As usual, fake news and cherry picking takes few minutes for you to generate, and if I want to source that it's crap, I will have to spend hours and hours digging up in my conference notes from years and years in the past. And for what? You have absolutely no idea of the reality and you will just say "na, you are bad, you lie, I don't believe you". You are clearly not worth the effort.
If you are honest and want to make sure you don't spread misleading info, the ball is in your corner, you can have a deeper look to check if what I brought to the table is bringing useful nuance (it does). But I doubt you will, you will just reject the idea that maybe you, the armchair militant who only read things that goes in the convenient direction, maybe does not understand the complex situation so perfectly.
You blame me of sharing misleading information but you claim I said things I did not say, then claim I'm an idiot.
You didn't brought nuance, from the beginning you personally attacked me, you never directly contested any claim I made.
I'll welcome discussing the points I brought up and the one you brought (none so far, except saying I'm an idiot).
Let's be clear: I'm not saying that your claims are fundamentally incorrect (even if sometimes they are a bit bullshit, like the German sabotage where the report is not able to give anything concrete, just that French people who think nuclear is not a good idea are unsurprisingly friends with people who think nuclear is not a good idea in other countries, and that political groups that think they have understood the situation well will fund reports, like it happens all the time including with pro-nuclear reports). My problem with your intervention is that your claims are not representative of the situation.
You criticize the sentence "France has lost more annual kWh from nuclear than Germany since 2011", which is sourced and is true (even when accounting projection for 2024), by bringing several correct elements. But you are doing the same error as the sentence you criticize: you bring cherry-picked arguments.
The point I've brought up is that your view of the situation is not the same as the view of the situation in the sector, that your view is just ... caricatural.
For example, how would like react if someone says that the failure of the Energiewende is due to France funding pro-nuclear in Germany and sabotaging the program? I would personally say that it is biased: even if we entertain the idea for the sake of argument, in itself it's way not enough to make the Energiewende fails.
For the French situation, typical reasons given for recent difficulties with the nuclear park are: the mess the government made with EDF privatization, the loss of technical expertise, the short-term vision where the electricity was sold too cheap and did not create budget for infrastructure maintenance/renewal, the fact that now we are going toward a flexible grid (something that was not expected even 50 years ago) and that the initial strategy was not accounting for that at all, the fact that the public/politic opinion is stupidly about "nuclear vs renewable" instead of using the best in specific situations, the learning in the nuclear sector that things are intrinsically complicated which burst the investment enthusiasm, ...
You will notice that these reasons are not "anti-nuclear": some of them implies that the French situation is not due intrinsically to nuclear, but due to the specific French situation.
The problem is that you don't mention any of them. You just mention reasons that are supporting the fact that somehow French nuclear is in fact great or in fact the victim of bad anti-nuclear. Some of these reasons are really anecdotal and never appear when professional discuss the subject. So, yes, it looks very biased, and you sounds like a living proof of what the initial article (I'm not always agreeing with it on all the points, btw) is talking about.
> even if sometimes they are a bit bullshit, like the German sabotage
The report is from the Ecole de Guerre Economique, which is renowed, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Warfare_School https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Warfare_School
They do give concrete examples,
> The Heinrich Böll Foundation has had a physical presence in France since 2016. Based
at 80 quai de Jemmapes in the 10th arrondissement - the same address as the Sherpa
association92 - the Paris branch conducts influence operations against French nuclear power
in several fields: public, media and political. The aim of its presence in these fields is to create
an unfavorable environment for the deployment of nuclear power in France, with the
support of other anti-nuclear relays.
Initially, this presence has manifested itself in the recurrent production of content between
2018 and 2021. Publications included: [...]
And the publications are targeted to the french audience.
It looks like you only read the document superficially.
> You criticize the sentence "France has lost more annual kWh from nuclear than Germany since 2011", which is sourced and is true (even when accounting projection for 2024), by bringing several correct elements. But you are doing the same error as the sentence you criticize: you bring cherry-picked arguments.
Something having multiple causes and pointing them is not "cherry picking".
I gave 3 differents reasons why france lost more annual kWh than germany in their graph, it isn't because you dislike the information that it is cherrypicking, in order to provide it, provide more context that contredict so said "cherry picking".
As I said, there are at least 3 reasons:
- aftermath of the covid, that is now completly recovered only as this year.
- sabotage of our industry, I did not say the direct consequence, but it's closing perfectly working plants because if it.
> (even when accounting projection for 2024)
You again mentioned information without sourced it (well, you sourced none of it since the beginning), please show a projection, this is available public data.
> For example, [...]
You are again making up an exemple that is far from our current discussion to depict what I say as insane.
> nuclear is in fact great or in fact the victim of bad anti-nuclear
Are you saying that the loss of technical expertise isn't tied at all to the anti-nuclear movement ?
> The problem is that you don't mention any of them.
Are you accusing me of not depicting the full picture of the french energy industry when calling out that the author article is very biased ?
> They do give concrete examples
The example you copy is not really anything concrete. Yes, the Heinrich Böll Foundation exists, has physical presence is several country, as an association with a political party and has an opinion on some policies.
That is not at all unusual, and you have similar foundation, sometimes anti-, sometimes pro-nuclear, everywhere. Just put yourself in their shoes: if you were in France and convinced that the nuclear pathway was good for mankind and that some people in Germany were interested to publish results that is consistent with what you think, why would you not collaborate with them?
But what this report does not do is to provide anything concrete. There is absolutely not proof that any of this had any impact whatsoever. There is no proof that it is a inference attempt and not just some people wanting to share their ideas in a given subject. There is no proof is was with the explicit goal of misinforming people (you realize that if these article published by the Heinrich Böll Foundation are scientifically correct, then it is a GOOD THING they have been published in France, right?). There is also no discussion about pro-nuclear publications supported by other foundations and how they could have impacted the French policy.
At the same time as these publications, France government was very pro-nuclear, which is rather a proof that inference from Germany had few to no impact.
> it isn't because you dislike the information that it is cherrypicking
Of course not, and I don't "dislike" these information. I'm just saying that those are pretty low ranking when normal people discuss what's happening in France and that if you were neutral, it's very strange to randomly point to 3 different reasons that are all pretty uninfluencal on the situation while conveniently "forgetting" the other reasons. And I say it again: these other reasons are not particularly anti-nuclear, but they are just not framing the situation as "in fact everything is perfect" or "in fact it's all the fault of the anti-nuclear". They are showing that it is more complex and maybe less about "renewable vs nuclear" like you try to frame the discussion.
> You again mentioned information without sourced it
Uh? YOU were saying that the projection of 2024 is missing. So, I've assumed you had source for it, so I did not need to provide a source. That's really crazy: you seem to use "source" as a random free-of-jail card to reject things that are not convenient for you.
Normal intellectually honest interlocutors don't need to scream "source" each time the other interlocutor does not bring a source, only if it's not easy for them to find the source and therefore suspect the interlocutor got confused in their conclusions.
As for source, a very easily source to find is the following:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#/media/File:Electricity_in_France.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#/media...
As you can see, the French curve is the same in the article than in the svg (you have to subtract the blue area). And as you can see, projection for 2024 are again dropping w.r.t to 2023. So, yes, the conclusion from the article is still correct.
So now, your turn: what are your sources to say that the sentence will not be true if the projection for 2024 are included?
> You are again making up an exemple that is far from our current discussion to depict what I say as insane.
You know what an analogy is, right?
> Are you saying that the loss of technical expertise isn't tied at all to the anti-nuclear movement ?
What? No its not. It's due to budget and short-term vision. At the same time, France was maintaining its expertise in plenty of other sectors that may or may not be popular, in military engineering, in spyware, in chemistry, ... The politicians in France have majoritarly supported the idea of a french nuclear sector until the 2000's, which is well after the expertise started to erode.
(some nice summary of the reasons: https://www.ft.com/content/d23b14ae-2c4e-458c-af8a-22692119f786 https://www.ft.com/content/d23b14ae-2c4e-458c-af8a-22692119f... I'm sure you can cherry-pick stuff, but they explain that the drop of expertise was because of a global drop on industrial jobs for an increase of service jobs and was not at all limited to nuclear. It also affected the automotive industry, for example)
> Are you accusing me of not depicting the full picture of the french energy industry when calling out that the author article is very biased ?
I am saying that you are more biased than the author article. The author article is not perfect, but I see more effort on their side to depict a fair and realistic situation (starting the article with "Nuclear energy has been great", with several sentence pro-nuclear in their article) than from you.
> But what this report does not do is to provide anything concrete.
It is, this foundation is writing publications in France target to french citizen with germany money.
The Ecole de Guerre Economique argue theses funding are targeted.
> There is absolutely not proof that any of this had any impact whatsoever.
Proving that a political campaign had an effect is impossible, especially if the one running the campaign don't want to know they are doing it on purpose.
> At the same time as these publications, France government was very pro-nuclear, which is rather a proof that inference from Germany had few to no impact.
This statements right there shows:
- you don't know how propaganda works
- you don't know the political context of what i'm talking about: the french governement at this time was not pro-nuclear, they kept the line of the previous governement and followed the 50% nuclear target. The current governement adopted a pro-nuclear stance since around the energy crisis.
- You are critizing someone telling them they are out of breadth and the first thing you do is critizing the report of one of the best school in competitive intelligence.
> are all pretty uninfluencal on the situation while conveniently "forgetting" the other reasons
I think you are completely unaware of how the politics works and how they affect the real world.
I pointed politicals problems, which cause problems you point as "typical reasons given for recent difficulties".
> some nice summary of the reasons: https://www.ft.com/content/d23b14ae-2c4e-458c-af8a-22692119f https://www.ft.com/content/d23b14ae-2c4e-458c-af8a-22692119f.
> (some nice summary of the reasons: https://www.ft.com/content/d23b14ae-2c4e-458c-af8a-22692119f https://www.ft.com/content/d23b14ae-2c4e-458c-af8a-22692119f... I'm sure you can cherry-pick stuff, but they explain that the drop of expertise was because of a global drop on industrial jobs for an increase of service jobs and was not at all limited to nuclear. It also affected the automotive industry, for example)
The Financial Time is highly biased, your article is also behind a paywall, the main reason for the loss of expertise is because of the lack of investment in nuclear in the past.
This is what says the EDF CEO here in front of the french deputies: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d91h-2fT2w8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d91h-2fT2w8
> You know what an analogy is, right?
Yes, and your usage of it is manipulative. An analogy is used to illustrate, you are using it to depicting your interlocutor as an idiot.
> Normal intellectually honest interlocutors don't need to scream "source" each time the other interlocutor does not bring a source,
Normal intellectually honest interlocutors don't start a conversation by saying their interlocutor is very "uneducated". Then follows with a graph that finish in 2019 as a source for a projection for 2024.
> And as you can see, projection for 2024 are again dropping w.r.t to 2023. So, yes, the conclusion from the article is still correct.
There is no data past 2019 in your graph.
> What? No its not. It's due to budget and short-term vision.
It is, let me explain you why: the politicians sets the budget, the short term vision, is also sets by the politics.
- Hollande, which was elected with an alliance of the Socialist Party, and the Greens, have set a target to reduce nuclear from 75% to 50%, EDF had to reduce the budget for nuclear due to that.
- Penly 3 was cancelled due to the above line.
- Superphénix, was closed because of the anti-nuclear activists, and the politics bow to this minority.
- Sarkozy, before Hollande, while not being anti nuclear, under-invested in the energy sector, which was needed to correct the course.
> Again, you are saying I said thing I did not say.
I'm saying that the interference of Germany due to propaganda had negligible effect on the french energetic situation.
You are pretending that your "reason" that France was impacted by German propaganda is not a bullshit reason.
You provide a study that fails to show that there was any impact and that there was any real interference. Just that some foundation is funding some article, something that happens all the time and is not a proof of propaganda.
> You voluntarly miss the "it's behind a paywall part" how convenient.
I'm reacting to, quote, "the Financial Time is highly biased". Very easy for you, if you can read the article and you don't like what you read, you can just say "yeah but it's biased".
> The result of the commission are available here, they show a way more nuanced statement that you
The result of the commission says a lot of things that I was already saying, and show that your reasons are at best anecdotical.
I've mentioned, for example, QUOTE FROM MY PREVIOUS COMMENT:
- "the mess the government made with EDF privatization", discussed in chapter 2, section 1 A 2, and chapter 2, section 2.
- "the loss of technical expertise", discussed in chapter 2, section 1 B 2 and chapter 2, section 2 C. A quote from it: "le déclin des compétences dans la filière nucléaire s’inscrit dans le mouvement plus large de la perte du tissu industriel français et de la disparition de nombreux emplois industriels" ("the decline of skills in nuclear is the result of a larger decline in the french industry").
- "the short-term vision where the electricity was sold too cheap and did not create budget for infrastructure maintenance/renewal", discussed in chapter 2, section 1 A 1c and 2b
- "the fact that now we are going toward a flexible grid (something that was not expected even 50 years ago) and that the initial strategy was not accounting for that at all", chapter 2, section 1 A 1b and 1c
- "the fact that the public/politic opinion is stupidly about "nuclear vs renewable" instead of using the best in specific situations", chapter 2, section 1 A 2c
- "the learning in the nuclear sector that things are intrinsically complicated which burst the investment enthusiasm, ...", chapter 2, section 3 B
Your reasons (you say three, but then only manage to explicit two) do not appear in the report as main reasons for the decline of French nuclear. QUOTE FROM YOUR COMMENT
- "aftermath of the covid, that is now completly recovered only as this year.": the report talk about all the problem that started well before covid. It is said that covid increased the problem and that covid arrived "on top" of the existing problems.
- "sabotage of our industry": can you find something about that anywhere?
In fact, the whole report is very much closer to my position than yours. The full chapter 2 explains that the problem of the french nuclear is mainly due to stupid short-term vision rather than just anti-nuclear things (there is some, of course, but the majority is about EDF governance (which includes the state) not doing the correct choices)
> Principally, they are not blaming EDF direction about this failure.
On skill gaps, EDF both says that it's not their responsibility AND that they are building capabilities to properly form new skilled people. So what's the correct one: either they cannot do anything about it and it's not their fault, or they can form people and they failed to start their program when it was needed.
In fact, the situation is the following: EDF got the message "we are slowly closing the nuclear", and, at the same time, saw the skill slowly disappearing but did nothing about it thinking they don't care, they will not need these skills in the future. When the government changed its mind (which was stupid, they should never have pushed to close the nuclear in the first place), then EDF said "well, there is no skills anymore" because they failed to maintain the skills that they should have maintained as long as possible instead of betting that they will not need them.
On the rest, distinguishing EDF from the state is pretty difficult. Decisions were taken in concordance, especially before 2015 where things were already falling apart.
> I suggest to read the report I linked in this comment, which show you are making up shit, the reason are highlighted in it.
In the video you posted, the CEO explicitly said that they get their skilled specialists in other countries.
> It's funny how you claimed being nuanced and we are down to you claiming that closing down fully working plants, that have history of anti-nuclear activists fighting against, and making political alliance in order to close it as "not anti-nuclear".
Did you even read. I've said, I quote: "And of course, the incredible excessive costs have nothing to do with that". I'm not saying that the Green have nothing to do with that, I'm saying that once again, you "forget" to say that Superphénix bad reputation was not just the result of anti-nuclear propaganda, but also of a lot of failures.
Not enough to justify the closing of Superphénix according to me. But again, it's not "it's all anti-nuclear's fault".