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Its privately held, would depend what Musk wants out of it, would he want profit above all else, this is doubtful. There's a case to be made for economies of sc

Its privately held, would depend what Musk wants out of it, would he want profit above all else, this is doubtful. There's a case to be made for economies of scale, the long term opportunities this presents for mars etc.

bumby 2y ago
Since you assume he doesn’t want to prioritize profit, what do you think he is prioritizing?
- db48x 2y ago
  He’s said many times that his goal is an interplanetary civilization. Why not simply take him at his word?
  - bumby 2y ago
    Do you take politicians at their word? Car salesmen? If not, it’s because we recognize people have many different incentives than they publicly display.
    - KoolKat23 2y ago
      What a cynical view of the world. Whilst it can be true (that people have different incentives than they display), it's not always true, nor necessarily important.
      - bumby 2y ago
        Understanding people's incentives is extremely important if you want to understand their behavior. As Charlie Munger once said, "Show me the incentives and I will show you the outcome." Based on your replies, you seem to think neither incentives or promises are important in business and, given the context, possibly not even profits. To give you the benefit of the doubt that those aren't just shallow dismissals, what do you think is important?
        KoolKat23 2y ago
        Improving the human condition. His intentions could be interplanetary expansion, profits, or more likely both. It doesn't matter. At the end of the day we now have reusable rockets and starlink thanks to this.
        bumby 2y ago
        Do you extend the same generous interpretations to the other space-faring company owners like Bezos, Branson, Bigelow etc. or is this unique to Musk?
        KoolKat23 2y ago
        Well SpaceX has delivered reusable orbital rockets, it is currently developing starship, those were stated pre-requisites for his mars plan. Blue origin has delivered New Glenn but it's only suborbital so far? Still possible, at the stroke of a pen, they'll get the needed funds to develop capabilities (so at Bezos mercy), they also are actively bidding for government contracts (where the money to make it sustainable is). Virgin Galactic went bankrupt and no one seems to be willing to fund it, so no to them. I don't follow Bigelow closely, I see they closed down.
        bumby 2y ago
        I meant moreso the “betterment of the human condition” than the Mars mission specifically. I believe Bezos has said he’s not in favor of an approach to colonize another planet. My issue is that each of those steps can also be cast as a pathway to more profit. Granted profit and Mars/betterment of the human condition aren’t mutually exclusive, but outside of mere talk I haven’t seen anything convincing that differentiates that one is the primary objective, e.g., a move that undermines profitability but helps the Mars mission
  - CoastalCoder 2y ago
    > Why not simply take him at his word? I don't know why he'd lie on this particular topic. But Musk absolutely has a history of lying on commercial matters. I don't believe his statements deserve the presumption of honesty. (Comment edited for tone.)
    - KoolKat23 2y ago
      Does it matter, no. Does his stated reason make sense, yes. These things are not mutually exclusive. It would need to be financially sustainable to actually deliver on whatever long term goal. Edited: for guidelines
      - bumby 2y ago
        >Does it matter, no. I think the OP may be a bit strong in their language, but I think your quote borders on cult-of-personality. Can you name a business where delivering on promises does not matter? To take it back to the featured article, there's a lot to be said for Boeing not delivering on their contract (really just a legally binding promise) and how it caused all kinds of schedule and cost pressure. >"What did he do to hurt you?" Also, snarky replies go against HN guidelines. Please review them.
        KoolKat23 2y ago
        SpaceX have a contract with NASA where delivering on their promises matters. Despite what some in the general public would have you believe, the evidence to date is clearly they're currently the most capable at delivering, one only has to look to Falcon9 or Dragons record to date. What I don't get is when the public feels entitled to some forensically audited answer. Especially when the business in question is privately held. He's entitled to his view, I mean someone else asked for it, we're entitled to disagree, we know he is often over-optimistic on timelines but there's no need for people to get butthurt over it like many seem to do. Imagine every time some other influential person made a comment, people fervently came out specifically to comment "They're a liar because of x reason". He runs the company, we don't, he's our best insight into the business, we can adjust expectations accordingly. Sorry I removed the snarky comment.
  - peddling-brink 2y ago
    I’d imagine that building interplanetary civilizations cost lots of money, so I think we can take him at his word and also read the subtext in this case.

bumby 2y ago

Since you assume he doesn’t want to prioritize profit, what do you think he is prioritizing?

db48x 2y ago
He’s said many times that his goal is an interplanetary civilization. Why not simply take him at his word?
- bumby 2y ago
  Do you take politicians at their word? Car salesmen? If not, it’s because we recognize people have many different incentives than they publicly display.
  - KoolKat23 2y ago
    What a cynical view of the world. Whilst it can be true (that people have different incentives than they display), it's not always true, nor necessarily important.
    - bumby 2y ago
      Understanding people's incentives is extremely important if you want to understand their behavior. As Charlie Munger once said, "Show me the incentives and I will show you the outcome." Based on your replies, you seem to think neither incentives or promises are important in business and, given the context, possibly not even profits. To give you the benefit of the doubt that those aren't just shallow dismissals, what do you think is important?
      - KoolKat23 2y ago
        Improving the human condition. His intentions could be interplanetary expansion, profits, or more likely both. It doesn't matter. At the end of the day we now have reusable rockets and starlink thanks to this.
        bumby 2y ago
        Do you extend the same generous interpretations to the other space-faring company owners like Bezos, Branson, Bigelow etc. or is this unique to Musk?
        KoolKat23 2y ago
        Well SpaceX has delivered reusable orbital rockets, it is currently developing starship, those were stated pre-requisites for his mars plan. Blue origin has delivered New Glenn but it's only suborbital so far? Still possible, at the stroke of a pen, they'll get the needed funds to develop capabilities (so at Bezos mercy), they also are actively bidding for government contracts (where the money to make it sustainable is). Virgin Galactic went bankrupt and no one seems to be willing to fund it, so no to them. I don't follow Bigelow closely, I see they closed down.
        bumby 2y ago
        I meant moreso the “betterment of the human condition” than the Mars mission specifically. I believe Bezos has said he’s not in favor of an approach to colonize another planet. My issue is that each of those steps can also be cast as a pathway to more profit. Granted profit and Mars/betterment of the human condition aren’t mutually exclusive, but outside of mere talk I haven’t seen anything convincing that differentiates that one is the primary objective, e.g., a move that undermines profitability but helps the Mars mission
- CoastalCoder 2y ago
  > Why not simply take him at his word? I don't know why he'd lie on this particular topic. But Musk absolutely has a history of lying on commercial matters. I don't believe his statements deserve the presumption of honesty. (Comment edited for tone.)
  - KoolKat23 2y ago
    Does it matter, no. Does his stated reason make sense, yes. These things are not mutually exclusive. It would need to be financially sustainable to actually deliver on whatever long term goal. Edited: for guidelines
    - bumby 2y ago
      >Does it matter, no. I think the OP may be a bit strong in their language, but I think your quote borders on cult-of-personality. Can you name a business where delivering on promises does not matter? To take it back to the featured article, there's a lot to be said for Boeing not delivering on their contract (really just a legally binding promise) and how it caused all kinds of schedule and cost pressure. >"What did he do to hurt you?" Also, snarky replies go against HN guidelines. Please review them.
      - KoolKat23 2y ago
        SpaceX have a contract with NASA where delivering on their promises matters. Despite what some in the general public would have you believe, the evidence to date is clearly they're currently the most capable at delivering, one only has to look to Falcon9 or Dragons record to date. What I don't get is when the public feels entitled to some forensically audited answer. Especially when the business in question is privately held. He's entitled to his view, I mean someone else asked for it, we're entitled to disagree, we know he is often over-optimistic on timelines but there's no need for people to get butthurt over it like many seem to do. Imagine every time some other influential person made a comment, people fervently came out specifically to comment "They're a liar because of x reason". He runs the company, we don't, he's our best insight into the business, we can adjust expectations accordingly. Sorry I removed the snarky comment.
- peddling-brink 2y ago
  I’d imagine that building interplanetary civilizations cost lots of money, so I think we can take him at his word and also read the subtext in this case.