Ah, text. It's so shit for conversation. I feel like I'm speaking to a smart person and we'd do a lot better over a beer, and we're probably a lot closer in op

Ah, text. It's so shit for conversation. I feel like I'm speaking to a smart person and we'd do a lot better over a beer, and we're probably a lot closer in opinion somewhere. Maybe. > Surely ChatGPT 5 will prove one of us right, eh? I have zero trust in LLM's becoming any kind of AI, I think they're more of a warning shot that AI could be coming one day. I think what it requires is (only) a few fundamental architectural insights. I think there's enough effort, stock prices to defend, country strategic advantages resting on someone somewhere getting it right that people will eventually discover those insights. (No prediction on when, we still can't agree on quantum interpretations 100 years later.) Humans evolved from single cells, purely from randomness, and our efforts at replicating that have many good examples to work from. A simple change in architecture, on the right track, could unlock an entirely different entity. In general, my intuition follows something similar to a proof-by-induction. We have a level of capability, we have continuous effort at improving it, we never go backwards in levels of capability. Choose any (rational) level, or limit, or barrier. It will get hit eventually. (All LLM's do is move it from "20 years away, we can't see it from here" to "ah ok, maybe a glimpse. Could very easily be less than 20 years.") For it to not hit the limit, you need a barrier of sorts that cannot ever be crossed. That is much harder to make true than the alternative. The limit-crossing applies to levels of intelligence, and control, and possibilities of danger. Take the limit, apply continuous effort to cross it, it'll get hit. In terms of losing control or dangers: state-level actors in a crisis might very well switch the wrong switch to not lose a war. Does it mean guaranteed doom? No of course not. It just means past a certain level of capability, humans won't be making the decisions anymore. That excites the builders, and scares the chief security architects. People whose job it is to prevent bad things from happening have a different mindset to those looking to make something new. Both have a place.