4 ms·
How do you know it’s the right decision?
by tmalsburg2 2y ago
How do you know it’s the right decision?
- baggy_trough 2y agoBecause every Starliner flight has had serious problems but the same cannot be said of the SpaceX vehicle, which is in addition more proven.
- alangibson 2y agoAcceptable loss of crew event is like 1 in 250 (can't remember the exact number). They can't quantify the probability of failure, so not putting them in Starliner is the right call.
- schiffern 2y agoYep, 1-in-270. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_Crew_Program#Spacecraft https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_Crew_Program#Spacec...
- skissane 2y ago1-in-270 is overall probability threshold for a 210 day notional ISS stay. For the journey home from ISS to Earth, the probability threshold is 1-in-1000. Likewise, it is 1-in-1000 for the journey from Earth to ISS. The riskiest part, which increases the probability from 1-in-500 to 1-in-270, is the ISS stay – the extended stay in space is faced with a continuous risk of micrometeoroid damage.
- cdchn 2y agoIts kind of grim to think a trip to the ISS has a 1:270 chance of death just from the unavoidable roulette of getting zinged by a micrometeroid.
- schiffern 2y ago1/270 is the total risk from all causes. Just the risk from micrometeoroids would be (at most) 1/270 - 1/500, which is roughly 1/587 (0.17%).
- mrguyorama 2y agoWelcome to space, it's really fucking inhospitable and will always be.