3 ms·

Competitiveness is an economic concern one can ignore while the government is willing to pour billions on a decade+ timeframe

talldayo 2y ago
Sure, China said that about their engines too. When Pakistan came to them looking to buy an F-16 replacement under contract, China couldn't provide competitive designs without using Russian powerplants. They would build the JF-17 for export, and that jet (built in 2003) wouldn't receive domestic engines until a 2019 overhaul. By that time they were competing with a ~45 year old USSR-designed engine, the Klimov RD-33. I full well expect that China is interested in producing silicon at-cost for the defense industry. It remains to be seen if they even have competitive designs though. Their premier domestic ISA, LoongArch, is based on 40-year-old MIPS architecture design. Cut off from international designs, it's not really clear how strong China's engineering chops are.
- sangnoir 2y ago
  > Cut off from international designs, it's not really clear how strong China's engineering chops are. CATL, DJI, Douyin & post-grad engineering programs all over the US suggest the answer is "very strong." Underestimating China is not good for anyone wishing to remain competitive
  - talldayo 2y ago
    I don't underestimate China, but I also don't take them at their word. They have a vested interest in appearing competitive even if they're not, same as the US does. I've acknowledged that both are nearly equals in terms of being importer-states reliant on foreign trade for competitive silicon. To my knowledge, China's most advanced domestic lithography is a dubious 7nm chip with unknown yields made entirely with DUV, not EUV. This is really quite poor and I invite you to share more updated sources if you think that I'm underestimating them here.
    - coliveira 2y ago
      You don't need to take their word, just look at the products they're releasing, especially in the EV segment. It is now above everybody else, even with the head start western companies had. They're at the top of telecom tech as well, and Huawei had to be cancelled in the West to stop its total dominance. Even in chips, where they have closed the gap in many ways in a matter of a few years.
      - talldayo 2y ago
        > just look at the products they're releasing, especially in the EV segment. Since when have EVs required high-density silicon? China's EVs are impressive, but it's 100% more of an endorsement of their lithium supply chain than their silicon one. > They're at the top of telecom tech as well That's a funny rendering of events. Didn't Huawei get forcibly removed from the market after they refused to let governments audit their security? I don't think that's an industry-leading attitude compared to Cisco. The only thing Huawei can win on is low prices, which really isn't a priority of telecoms when you're trying to sell backdoored hardware. Additionally - telecom tech doesn't require advanced silicon either. Most WiFi routers and Ethernet switches are made with the same silicon the US already manufactures in GlobalFoundries and Intel fabs. The fact that China has 24nm DUV is not at all impressive when half the world was already exporting similar density silicon for cars and routers. So... yeah, I do need to look at better examples if I want to trust their word. From both the examples you've given me it seems like China is focusing on cheap low-density hardware that anyone can make, but China can make cheaper thanks to their political prisoners and labor camps. Not only is it unimpressive, it's not even a slight example of how China can put modern silicon nodes into mass-production. You are describing 2010-era fab technology, when talking about EV and telecom chips. I just hope you know that's what you're bragging about here.

talldayo 2y ago

Sure, China said that about their engines too. When Pakistan came to them looking to buy an F-16 replacement under contract, China couldn't provide competitive designs without using Russian powerplants. They would build the JF-17 for export, and that jet (built in 2003) wouldn't receive domestic engines until a 2019 overhaul. By that time they were competing with a ~45 year old USSR-designed engine, the Klimov RD-33. I full well expect that China is interested in producing silicon at-cost for the defense industry. It remains to be seen if they even have competitive designs though. Their premier domestic ISA, LoongArch, is based on 40-year-old MIPS architecture design. Cut off from international designs, it's not really clear how strong China's engineering chops are.

sangnoir 2y ago
> Cut off from international designs, it's not really clear how strong China's engineering chops are. CATL, DJI, Douyin & post-grad engineering programs all over the US suggest the answer is "very strong." Underestimating China is not good for anyone wishing to remain competitive
- talldayo 2y ago
  I don't underestimate China, but I also don't take them at their word. They have a vested interest in appearing competitive even if they're not, same as the US does. I've acknowledged that both are nearly equals in terms of being importer-states reliant on foreign trade for competitive silicon. To my knowledge, China's most advanced domestic lithography is a dubious 7nm chip with unknown yields made entirely with DUV, not EUV. This is really quite poor and I invite you to share more updated sources if you think that I'm underestimating them here.
  - coliveira 2y ago
    You don't need to take their word, just look at the products they're releasing, especially in the EV segment. It is now above everybody else, even with the head start western companies had. They're at the top of telecom tech as well, and Huawei had to be cancelled in the West to stop its total dominance. Even in chips, where they have closed the gap in many ways in a matter of a few years.
    - talldayo 2y ago
      > just look at the products they're releasing, especially in the EV segment. Since when have EVs required high-density silicon? China's EVs are impressive, but it's 100% more of an endorsement of their lithium supply chain than their silicon one. > They're at the top of telecom tech as well That's a funny rendering of events. Didn't Huawei get forcibly removed from the market after they refused to let governments audit their security? I don't think that's an industry-leading attitude compared to Cisco. The only thing Huawei can win on is low prices, which really isn't a priority of telecoms when you're trying to sell backdoored hardware. Additionally - telecom tech doesn't require advanced silicon either. Most WiFi routers and Ethernet switches are made with the same silicon the US already manufactures in GlobalFoundries and Intel fabs. The fact that China has 24nm DUV is not at all impressive when half the world was already exporting similar density silicon for cars and routers. So... yeah, I do need to look at better examples if I want to trust their word. From both the examples you've given me it seems like China is focusing on cheap low-density hardware that anyone can make, but China can make cheaper thanks to their political prisoners and labor camps. Not only is it unimpressive, it's not even a slight example of how China can put modern silicon nodes into mass-production. You are describing 2010-era fab technology, when talking about EV and telecom chips. I just hope you know that's what you're bragging about here.