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It's crazy to me that while we've been fantasizing about lunar bases, Mars settlements, asteroid mining and colony ships, now, 60+ years after our "space" era s
by paxys 2y ago
It's crazy to me that while we've been fantasizing about lunar bases, Mars settlements, asteroid mining and colony ships, now, 60+ years after our "space" era started, we still haven't figured out how to get a single person to low Earth orbit and back in a safe and cost efficient way. We all need a collective reality check on our spacefaring hopes.
- Arch-TK 2y ago[flagged]
- option 2y agolook at track record. Not at tweets. He has delivered more than anyone else. By far and in several areas.
- WalterBright 2y agoI follow Musk on twitter. I usually get a chuckle from his tweets. It's nice to see a major figure speak his mind rather than the careful pablum filtered through a PR department and read off a teleprompter.
- hackernewds 2y agoMusk is the epitome of "never meet your idols"
- dbg31415 2y ago[flagged]
- WalterBright 2y agoI hear "racist" bandied about so often it has lost its meaning. > how does Musk still not have the judgement to just keep his mouth shut when he doesn’t have something nice to say? I'm old, and no longer care what people say. It's what they do that matters.
- hax0ron3 2y agoI can't think of anything Musk has said that is racist.
- WalterBright 2y agoI doubt there is a single person on the national stage who hasn't been called a racist.
- jcranmer 2y agoI don't think he has said anything outright. But he has endorsed (coded) antisemitic tweets, he has directly espoused transphobia, and his companies have lost a few lawsuits alleging racist working conditions. I don't think he himself is racist, but he seems to enjoy hanging out with a lot of racists, and he gives me vibes that he thinks anti-racism is more of a problem than racism.
- hax0ron3 2y agoIt is true that Musk endorsed a post which said that Jewish communities have been endorsing anti-white hatred. There is no doubt that one can easily find many individual Jews, and even groups of Jews, who have endorsed anti-white hatred. However, Jews are prominent in all parts of the political spectrum due probably mainly to their high average level of intellectual ability, so basically anyone could find prominent Jews among their political opponents no matter what sort of politics one has. Some of the most prominent figures who are generally considered far-right in today's Western Overton window, and most definitely are not anti-white, are Jewish. For example, David Horowitz, Curtis Yarvin, Costin Alamariu, and many others. Then there is Israel, which in some ways is far-right by modern US standards, and is a place where I imagine the majority of the population both consider themselves white and are not anti-white in the slightest, rather the opposite. The idea that entire broad communities of Jews promote anti-white hatred is not supportable by reality as far as I can tell. I forgot about that endorsement of his. You make a good point. I am not sure that his endorsement was just a case of misunderstanding on his part rather than revealing a deeper racist sentiment. It could go either way. It is possible that he was just sloppy and interpreted "Jewish communities" to mean "certain groups of Jews", which is what he tried to say when he backtracked from his endorsement later, and it is also possible that he actually dislikes Jewish people in general. But I agree that it is not unlikely that he has at least some underlying anti-Jewish sentiment. Funnily, I notice that many people who have anti-Jewish sentiment misunderstand what is typically happening when individual Jews express anti-white sentiment. Usually what is happening in such cases is that the person considers himself both white and Jewish, so when he expresses anti-white sentiment it is not as a Jewish person hating on whites, it is actually as a self-hating white hating on whites. I would not be surprised if Jewish whites in the US are more likely to express anti-white sentiment than non-Jewish whites are, since Jewish people in the US tend to be leftist and being a self-hating white person is a very common characteristic of leftist whites, but that does not mean that communities of Jews are anti-white unless you use the word "communities" in a rather non-standard way. As far as transphobia goes, I am not so sure. Musk seems to be a bad father to his trans child, but I cannot think off the top of my head of any transphobic things that he has said, unless you think that it is transphobic to not consider a trans woman a woman. Which I do not consider transphobic at all. But I might not be aware of some of his statements.
- option 2y agoI get a laugh too. Also, I love what he has done with Twitter, though name change to X was stupid.
- panick21_ 2y agoSpaceX already regularly brings people to LEO and back reliabily. And they are working on the moon. Boieng not being able to do it isnt relevant.
- WalterBright 2y agoLooks to me like Musk is delivering on his "pipe dreams".
- static_motion 2y agoI'm all for holding him accountable to his outlandishly unrealistic claims, but he and the entire SpaceX team are wholly responsible for the biggest advancements and innovations in space explorations since the space race. Credit where credit is due.
- SoftTalker 2y agoWhat is SpaceX doing that the Apollo project (or the Soviets, for that matter) wasn't doing 50 years ago. Re-usable booster stages is all I can really think of.
- WalterBright 2y agoDoing it for 10% of the cost.
- SoftTalker 2y agoCosts always come down as technologies mature.
- WalterBright 2y agoIt's 10% of NASA's current costs. Costs for NASA never came down.
- SoftTalker 2y agoOK granted. NASA and legacy aerospace contractors were milking a cash cow and never thought they would face a new competitor. But I was more thinking of fundamental capabilites. We (USA and USSR) have had crewed low-orbit space stations since the 1970s and have been sending astronauts to and from them since then. We sent probes to Mars and Venus and other planets in the 1970s. The Voyagers were launched in 1977. The stuff we're capable of doing today has not really advanced.
- 2y ago
- brainphreeze 2y agoWe've been dreaming of space travel since long before Elon was born. The hate people have for Elon is absolutely wild.
- option 2y agolosers hate successful people. it is called jealousy, and sadly a part of human nature
- exe34 2y ago[flagged]
- WalterBright 2y agoI recommend reading a biography of Musk and the creation of Tesla. It's abundantly clear neither would exist without Musk. Anyone would want to be called such a "sad loser"!
- monkeywork 2y agoAnd what exactly have you accomplished in your life that has bettered others' lives? Don't get me wrong it's perfectly fine to criticize someone on specific things - however, you are just blanket calling someone you don't know a sad loser... honestly says more about you than him.
- exe34 2y agooh bugger all, and I'm content with that. I don't think he is though. he just doesn't seem okay. if I were that filthy rich, I'd pay somebody to make sure I'm not coming across as a lunatic, I wouldn't joke about buying a blog and then panic when I can't pull out of the contract. i wouldn't tell advertisers to go fuck themselves and then sue them for not advertising on my blog.
- kwere 2y agoSure, he has become the richest man of the world with various world class companies by accident. Elon Derangement Syndrome is real
- trothamel 2y agoGiven that SpaceX is about to launch four people on what is more-or-less a joyride (Polaris Dawn), it's really only the government and boeing that seem to be having problems.
- armada651 2y ago> it's really only the government and boeing that seem to be having problems. As we've seen these past few years, Boeing is perfectly capable of royally screwing things up on its own without the government's involvement.
- SlightlyLeftPad 2y agoRight, the public-sector government becomes afraid to take risks for political reasons. On the other hand, the publicly traded private sector over-optimizes for shareholder value, putting the cart of gold before the horse; Boeing. SpaceX remains a private company solely focused on their mission undeterred by outside influence which allows engineers the space to do what they do best. There’s a difference and anything that’s truly critical to our lives or human livelihood should consider delisting. Once shareholders demand your company to stray from excellence and quality in the name of raising the bottom line, it’s time to give it a hard look.
- hackernewds 2y agoPrivate companies have shareholders as well.
- vessenes 2y agoAs a (very) small shareholder in SpaceX, I can tell you, it's Elon (and Gwynne's) game, full stop. I would be very surprised to learn an investor has even a tiny bit of influence at SpaceX.
- somenameforme 2y agoThe problem isn't government meddling, but the government creating perverse incentives. Boeing has an extremely strong relationship with the government, which means they get sent endless billions of dollars with quality being only a distant concern. Because it's not like Congress cares about space - NASA is just seen as a convenient jobs/pork medium. So long as money gets redirected to the right people, they're happy. And so maintaining this relationship, and milking it for all it's worth, becomes much more profitable and reliable than trying to compete, innovate, and bring down prices. On the contrary, high prices and long development times just drive even more profit. Most of their contracts have been cost plus where the government pays for all costs and then gives them a fat chunk of profit on top. Even the fixed price contracts tend to end up getting 'adjusted' over time. Any company solely motivated by profit would probably be destroyed in this system, because the incentives created do not reward competence.
- zpeti 2y agoDoes spacex not exist in your world or what?
- option 2y agowe need more than one spacex.
- exe34 2y agoThat appears to be answering a question orthogonal to: > we still haven't figured out how to get a single person to low Earth orbit and back in a safe and cost efficient way
- zpeti 2y agoWe have Ariane space, rocket lab, blue origin. We need more than one musk. Unfortunately that’s like one in a century.
- coryrc 2y agoEven Musk isn't Musk anymore.
- nebula8804 2y agoHe does not have a personally consistent track record but his company SpaceX seems to be executing just as good if not even better than it ever has.
- metabagel 2y agoIt’s all good until he has his Spacex Cybertruck moment.
- nebula8804 2y agoPeople have been waiting for that like forever. It may happen, it may not. I spoke to multiple SpaceX employees post Musk twitter and they are as committed as ever with an insane amount of dedication to the cause...so if he does not lose his top talent, the likelihood of screwups like what you are describing seem small.
- mattmaroon 2y agoWe get people to and from low earth orbit safely and (relative to the 60’s) cost efficiently all the time. One failure isn’t an indictment of the whole industry, any more than one broken down car negates how much better cars are today than in the past.
- thegrim33 2y agoAnd it wasn't even a real failure; they contractually have to provide something like a 1 in 200 chance of failure or better, and in the state the vehicle is in they haven't or can't prove that they're meeting that safety margin, so NASA is choosing to go with an option that does have that safety margin. That's it. If they were to come down in it anyways there's still likely a 1% or less chance of failure.
- SoftTalker 2y agoI fully agree. Personally I don't think we'll ever have an extended manned presence anywhere farther away than the Moon. We might visit Mars in the next century, maybe, but a colony surviving there is pure fantasy.
- diggan 2y agoIt's been 63 years ago since the first human visited the orbit around earth. Since then, development and research happens faster and faster. We now even have commercial companies who are developing space crafts for humans. I don't think we've seen even the beginning of how things will unfold. Just 100 years will render a huge difference from today, and today we're already doing things that were unthinkable ~20 years ago (like reusable rockets).
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- garaetjjte 2y agoIn other words, we are almost as far away from moon landings as they were from Wright brothers first flight. Not particularly optimistic.
- SlightlyLeftPad 2y agoJust a couple hundred years ago, Settlers who risked their lives and spent several months on cutting edge technology (aka wooden sail boats) to find “new” land would like to have a word.
- oceanplexian 2y agoIt's also a bit poetic in that it took 30-60 days to sail from Europe to the New World. When Mars is aligned with Earth, the travel time will be similar. For example, New Horizons was able to reach Mars in 39 days.
- zo1 2y agoWe have to have a collective look at what 1st-world governments, the media, and most "ordinary" people have been focusing on since the late 60's. The world is not mobilizing towards these big "civilization advancing" goals, we're all just faffing about solving the next tiny little thing infront of our faces. That plus we're breeding mediocrity and not promoting excellence through meritocracy. This is purely cultural, and it's right infront of us every day to see and participate in (or not).
- nebula8804 2y ago[flagged]
- biscottigelato 2y agoWouldn't you wonder why then that it seems, at least according to you, society have went backwards and not forward in this time frame? "We have to have a collective look at what 1st-world governments, the media, and most "ordinary" people have been focusing on since the late 60's." still applies. Fixing the everyday problem is part of the problem-set to get to the "civilization advancing" goals.
- kwere 2y agoMost economies are not meritocratic and/or capitalist but mixed economies where the state direct good % of gdp towards political goals. in these societies the ones who makes real money are in proximity of the "printing press", usually finance, banking, real estate and generally incumbent megacorps; all actors that can take full advantage of low interest rates & stimulus programs that end up inflating assets (cantillon effect) further devaluing the value of labour. We need real meritocracy and capitalistic competition to put back power int the hand of labour. But the 50s were a big historical anomaly that should not be taken as benchmark due to a lot of factors, first of all being an overheated economy, the only country with serious industrial capacity post WW2
- nebula8804 2y agoYou are explaining a symptom of the problem. Solve the underlying problem. If humans are to become a space faring civilization and all the other things this cannot be an insurmountable problem. >But the 50s were a big historical anomaly that should not be taken as benchmark due to a lot of factors, first of all being an overheated economy, the only country with serious industrial capacity post WW2 Why is it that society should be expected to solve these extremely difficult problems to go into space and to do all these other sci-fi things but when it comes to the standards of living that humans were once capable of, its "oh what you had were a big historical anomaly that should not be taken as benchmark due to a lot of factors". I'm sorry but I don't buy it. If you want the magic of the future that you see in the comic books get the fundamentals right first!
- rockemsockem 2y agoWe stopped doing serious space development after Apollo and lost a ton of institutional knowledge between then and when SpaceX started picking up where they left off. Documentation and old drawings, often lacking implementation details, can only take you so far There's no big secret, if we do a thing a lot we will be able to do it consistently and reliably. Boeing has not done a lot of spacecraft design and manufacturing recently. They've spent a bunch of "time" on it, but haven't actually produced much. Fortunately other companies, besides just SpaceX, are building lots of spacecraft.
- golergka 2y agoOne could argue that shuttle program didn't end up as successful as was originally hoped, but it is certainly “serious space development”.
- eigenman 2y agoThe first space shuttle prototype (Enterprise) started construction in 1974. The first shuttle launched in 1981. To the best of my knowledge, there were no major upgrades to the design over its career, save avionics. So even though the space shuttle was “serious space development,” it’s been a long time since a new human rated vehicle has been designed.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- rockemsockem 2y agoIt was also initially designed to be able to have nuclear thermal propulsion engines installed in later iterations, but that got scrapped.
- Kim_Bruning 2y agoThose were for the other type(s) of shuttles, for use in space. (The ones that didn't get built). The original STS design looked a lot more like late-game KSP1 (possibly depending on the player).
- electriclove 2y agoSpaceX is solving this and many similar issues.
- Archelaos 2y agoI agree. It reminds me that it is now 6,000+ years (at least) since our agricultural era started, and we still haven't figured out how to provide a decend meal every day for all the children on our spaceship Earth.
- krapp 2y ago> we still haven't figured out how to provide a decend meal every day for all the children on our spaceship Earth. We produce more than enough food to feed every person on Earth and then a few billion more in the future. We simply choose not to. It isn't a technological or logistical issue, but cultural and political.
- Archelaos 2y agoYes indeed. It shows the importance of cultural and political issues in everything. And not least in space flight. See the motivation behind the Apollo programme in the past or who might be part of the next Crew-9 mission in the current situation.
- hereme888 2y agowe haven't? isn't this exclusively a Boeing issue? SpaceX should just get the whole contract.
- ceejayoz 2y agoSpaceX effectively does already. NASA has already bought extra flights from them. It seems likely they'll buy more now.
- echoangle 2y agoWhy would they buy more? They can’t even get the already booked flights done before the ISS is deorbited
- philwelch 2y agoThis is an absurd statement. There are currently three operational spacecraft that have been safely and reliably ferrying people back and forth from LEO for years now: Soyuz, Dragon, and Shenzhou. This is a test flight for a fourth spacecraft.
- dev_tty01 2y agoYou seem to be unaware that the Soyuz system has been safely moving people back and forth to LEO for decades. SpaceX has been doing it since 2020. This failure should only be taken as a comment on Boeing's broken engineering processes and incompetent management. It says nothing about our society's spacefaring capabilities.
- jstummbillig 2y agoThe same goes for secure and bug free software development (while the cost of errors in software rise all the time) Looking at transportation, noise and air pollution or medicine as other examples: We are still just really bad at most things, if you consider how little fantasy is required to find major fault in our important systems. Space flight is not even that, just really exposed.
- treflop 2y agoThis is like the difference between electrical engineering and software engineering. It’s just so more expensive to create and test anything in EE so development cycles are much longer. Compare that to software engineering where people are trying and making new paradigms like every week. Space engineering is wildly more expensive so development and progress cycles are even longer.
- ijidak 2y agoAnd that a brand new company offers the only U.S.-based method for doing so, when NASA and these other companies have been at this since roughly World War II! It's embarrassing for the legacy space industry. Not to downplay the legacy space industry's amazing achievements like some armchair general (literally typing this from my couch...) But, I'm shocked at how badly SpaceX is beating the incumbents.