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Russia has drawn several "red lines" that have been crossed without them sending the promised nukes. At this point one must wonder if they even have functionin

by lawn 2y ago

Russia has drawn several "red lines" that have been crossed without them sending the promised nukes. At this point one must wonder if they even have functioning nukes left or if everything is just posturing.

mppm 2y ago
Eh.. am I misunderstanding something, or did you just suggest that Russia should have shown some balls and actually launched those nukes? Just asking.
- lawn 2y ago
  I really don't want them to, no.
cmrdporcupine 2y ago
The Polish foreign minister already let slip some months ago what's probably really going on behind the scenes -- the US has made it clear to Russia through back channels that any use of "tactical" nukes would be met with the uncorked arsenal of US or NATO conventional forces along the front line in Ukraine. That's, I believe, a legit red line that Russia cannot cross. As for so-called "strategic" nuclear weapons, nobody is that stupid. Russia knows full well what it's up against and that it's an inferior force in all respects. All the bluster from idiots like Medvedev is for domestic audiences. What they can't take by force in Ukraine they'll ruin, covering it in minefields and destroyed cities. If they can't have it, they want it destroyed as an internal example of what happens if you try to toss off their kleptocracy. Belarus among others I'm sure are watching closely.
- lawn 2y ago
  Yes, I do believe this is the correct take.
mc32 2y ago
Just because they are rattling their rattler doesn’t mean they don’t also have ability to bite. War hawks like to test the opponent in hopes the opponent is rational. One hopes Russia, North Korea and China remain rational. Yet they retain the ability to strike and underestimating that is foolish.
pydry 2y ago
Those were escalations not red lines, and Putin has not threatened a nuclear response to anything Ukraine has done (or even anything it could feasibly do). The western media declares pretty much every escalation step to be a crossed red line though. This meme has reached new heights of absurdity. Edit: * No, Putin did not threaten to nuke anyone if Sweden joined NATO. A western newspaper might have declared it to be a red line. It's not a red line. * No, Putin did not threaten to nuke anyone if Finland joined NATO. A western newspaper might have declared it to be a red line. It's not a red line. * No, Putin did not threaten to use nukes if Ukraine invaded pre 2014 Russian territory or fired drones at refineries. A western newspaper might have declared it to be a red line. It's not a red line. * No, "Putin said something vaguely ominous about nukes" is not drawing a red line.
- ceejayoz 2y ago
  Promised, no. Thinly veiled threats, definitely, from Putin and other Russian leadership. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_risk_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#Russian_nuclear_blackmail https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_risk_during_the_Russia... Same mistake Obama made in Syria: red lines that aren't actual red lines just make you look a bit feckless when they're crossed without consequence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukraini...
  - pydry 2y ago
    Your wikipedia article doesnt seem to have an understanding of what a red line is: >Crossing a red line to the Russian Federation is often identified as being an action that damages Russian national interests. It's a bit more than just that.
    - ceejayoz 2y ago
      I welcome your "not a red line" interpretation of quotes like these: > Dmitry Medvedev, who serves as deputy chairman of Putin’s powerful security council, was more explicit in January. “The defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war,” he said. - https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/01/ukraine-f-16s-biden-russia-escalation/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/01/... > Anticipating international condemnation and countermeasures, Putin issued a stark warning to other countries not to meddle, saying, “whoever tries to impede us, let alone create threats for our country and its people, must know that the Russian response will be immediate and lead to the consequences you have never seen in history.” https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-launches-attacks-ukraine-as-putin-warns-countries-who-interfere-consequences-you-have-never-seen https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-launches-attacks-u...

by lawn 2y ago

mppm 2y ago

Eh.. am I misunderstanding something, or did you just suggest that Russia should have shown some balls and actually launched those nukes? Just asking.

lawn 2y ago
I really don't want them to, no.

cmrdporcupine 2y ago

The Polish foreign minister already let slip some months ago what's probably really going on behind the scenes -- the US has made it clear to Russia through back channels that any use of "tactical" nukes would be met with the uncorked arsenal of US or NATO conventional forces along the front line in Ukraine. That's, I believe, a legit red line that Russia cannot cross. As for so-called "strategic" nuclear weapons, nobody is that stupid. Russia knows full well what it's up against and that it's an inferior force in all respects. All the bluster from idiots like Medvedev is for domestic audiences. What they can't take by force in Ukraine they'll ruin, covering it in minefields and destroyed cities. If they can't have it, they want it destroyed as an internal example of what happens if you try to toss off their kleptocracy. Belarus among others I'm sure are watching closely.

lawn 2y ago
Yes, I do believe this is the correct take.

mc32 2y ago

Just because they are rattling their rattler doesn’t mean they don’t also have ability to bite. War hawks like to test the opponent in hopes the opponent is rational. One hopes Russia, North Korea and China remain rational. Yet they retain the ability to strike and underestimating that is foolish.

pydry 2y ago

Those were escalations not red lines, and Putin has not threatened a nuclear response to anything Ukraine has done (or even anything it could feasibly do). The western media declares pretty much every escalation step to be a crossed red line though. This meme has reached new heights of absurdity. Edit: * No, Putin did not threaten to nuke anyone if Sweden joined NATO. A western newspaper might have declared it to be a red line. It's not a red line. * No, Putin did not threaten to nuke anyone if Finland joined NATO. A western newspaper might have declared it to be a red line. It's not a red line. * No, Putin did not threaten to use nukes if Ukraine invaded pre 2014 Russian territory or fired drones at refineries. A western newspaper might have declared it to be a red line. It's not a red line. * No, "Putin said something vaguely ominous about nukes" is not drawing a red line.

ceejayoz 2y ago
Promised, no. Thinly veiled threats, definitely, from Putin and other Russian leadership. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_risk_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#Russian_nuclear_blackmail https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_risk_during_the_Russia... Same mistake Obama made in Syria: red lines that aren't actual red lines just make you look a bit feckless when they're crossed without consequence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukraini...
- pydry 2y ago
  Your wikipedia article doesnt seem to have an understanding of what a red line is: >Crossing a red line to the Russian Federation is often identified as being an action that damages Russian national interests. It's a bit more than just that.
  - ceejayoz 2y ago
    I welcome your "not a red line" interpretation of quotes like these: > Dmitry Medvedev, who serves as deputy chairman of Putin’s powerful security council, was more explicit in January. “The defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war,” he said. - https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/01/ukraine-f-16s-biden-russia-escalation/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/01/... > Anticipating international condemnation and countermeasures, Putin issued a stark warning to other countries not to meddle, saying, “whoever tries to impede us, let alone create threats for our country and its people, must know that the Russian response will be immediate and lead to the consequences you have never seen in history.” https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-launches-attacks-ukraine-as-putin-warns-countries-who-interfere-consequences-you-have-never-seen https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-launches-attacks-u...