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> Question is, will they be able to actually commercialize it before ASML manages to get improved versions of their current litho machines out the door Canon a

> Question is, will they be able to actually commercialize it before ASML manages to get improved versions of their current litho machines out the door Canon and Nikon don't need to be bleeding edge. Majority of the chip fabrication market is 20nm, 28nm, and 40nm along with analog chips (60nm+). The sub-20nm chips will become more common as more and more fabs get turned on and EUV eventually gets commoditized, but the RoI isn't there yet for most electronics aside from high margins consumer electronics like GPUs, high end cellphones, etc. > Chinese universities and companies are working on particle accelerator based EUV sources Both the Chinese (SMIC) and the Japanese (OIST) attempts don't have great yield rates (the OIST project above is barely 50% of ASML's and SMIC's is reported to be similar). Both will crack it eventually, but the order book for ASML's High NA EUV (3nm and below) is entirely Intel, Samsung, and the American fabs for TSMC for the next 3-4 years so by the time a competitor is ASML comparable, a significant subset of high end US and SK fabs will have transitioned to 3nm.

EvgeniyZh 2y ago
Canon and Nikon have these already, and yet their market share is pretty small
Panzer04 2y ago
But how much of the monetary value generation derives from small nodes? Surely the vast majority of fab income derives from these small nodes, just based on the sheer pricing disparity between complex semiconductors and everything else.
- ethbr1 2y ago
  Compounded by the availability of the technology. Few leading node machines = machine manufacturer/fab can charge high margins Multiple trailing node machines/suppliers = machine manufacturers/fabs begin to compete on price, driving down margins
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    ^^^ this. A good example of this principle is the diffusion of analog chip and memory chip fabrication in the 1990s to early 2010s (US/TW/JP/SK in 1980s-90s to MY/SG/PH in the 90s to CN in the 2000s). The ongoing diffusion of specialized DUVL processes like 20nm, 28nm, and 40nm is another great example (US in the 2000s to TW/SK in the 2010s to CN in the late 2010s/early 2020s). Nowadays companies like PSMC are selling the entire end-to-end Fab IP for 28nm/40nm processes to companies in JP, IN, ID, US, etc, further diffusing the know how.

EvgeniyZh 2y ago

Canon and Nikon have these already, and yet their market share is pretty small

Panzer04 2y ago

But how much of the monetary value generation derives from small nodes? Surely the vast majority of fab income derives from these small nodes, just based on the sheer pricing disparity between complex semiconductors and everything else.

ethbr1 2y ago
Compounded by the availability of the technology. Few leading node machines = machine manufacturer/fab can charge high margins Multiple trailing node machines/suppliers = machine manufacturers/fabs begin to compete on price, driving down margins
- alephnerd 2y ago
  ^^^ this. A good example of this principle is the diffusion of analog chip and memory chip fabrication in the 1990s to early 2010s (US/TW/JP/SK in 1980s-90s to MY/SG/PH in the 90s to CN in the 2000s). The ongoing diffusion of specialized DUVL processes like 20nm, 28nm, and 40nm is another great example (US in the 2000s to TW/SK in the 2010s to CN in the late 2010s/early 2020s). Nowadays companies like PSMC are selling the entire end-to-end Fab IP for 28nm/40nm processes to companies in JP, IN, ID, US, etc, further diffusing the know how.