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Canon and Nikon are also working on alternatives such as nanoimprint lithography [1]. Chinese universities and companies are working on particle accelerator bas

Canon and Nikon are also working on alternatives such as nanoimprint lithography [1]. Chinese universities and companies are working on particle accelerator based EUV sources [2]. Question is, will they be able to actually commercialize it before ASML manages to get improved versions of their current litho machines out the door? Commercialization of a technology like this can easily take 5-10 years, and ASML aren't twiddling their thumbs. Once the incumbent has a technology that is, say, 80-90% as good as the challenger, the big players will always choose them to minimize risks. [1] https://semiengineering.com/nanoimprint-finds-its-footing-in-photonics/ https://semiengineering.com/nanoimprint-finds-its-footing-in... [2] https://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/business/china-to-build-huge-particle-accelerator-for-litho-2023-09/ https://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/business/china-to-bui...

alephnerd 2y ago
> Question is, will they be able to actually commercialize it before ASML manages to get improved versions of their current litho machines out the door Canon and Nikon don't need to be bleeding edge. Majority of the chip fabrication market is 20nm, 28nm, and 40nm along with analog chips (60nm+). The sub-20nm chips will become more common as more and more fabs get turned on and EUV eventually gets commoditized, but the RoI isn't there yet for most electronics aside from high margins consumer electronics like GPUs, high end cellphones, etc. > Chinese universities and companies are working on particle accelerator based EUV sources Both the Chinese (SMIC) and the Japanese (OIST) attempts don't have great yield rates (the OIST project above is barely 50% of ASML's and SMIC's is reported to be similar). Both will crack it eventually, but the order book for ASML's High NA EUV (3nm and below) is entirely Intel, Samsung, and the American fabs for TSMC for the next 3-4 years so by the time a competitor is ASML comparable, a significant subset of high end US and SK fabs will have transitioned to 3nm.
- EvgeniyZh 2y ago
  Canon and Nikon have these already, and yet their market share is pretty small
- Panzer04 2y ago
  But how much of the monetary value generation derives from small nodes? Surely the vast majority of fab income derives from these small nodes, just based on the sheer pricing disparity between complex semiconductors and everything else.
  - ethbr1 2y ago
    Compounded by the availability of the technology. Few leading node machines = machine manufacturer/fab can charge high margins Multiple trailing node machines/suppliers = machine manufacturers/fabs begin to compete on price, driving down margins
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      ^^^ this. A good example of this principle is the diffusion of analog chip and memory chip fabrication in the 1990s to early 2010s (US/TW/JP/SK in 1980s-90s to MY/SG/PH in the 90s to CN in the 2000s). The ongoing diffusion of specialized DUVL processes like 20nm, 28nm, and 40nm is another great example (US in the 2000s to TW/SK in the 2010s to CN in the late 2010s/early 2020s). Nowadays companies like PSMC are selling the entire end-to-end Fab IP for 28nm/40nm processes to companies in JP, IN, ID, US, etc, further diffusing the know how.
Animats 2y ago
It's interesting that the author's picture is with a linear accelerator. It's quite possible to use a linear accelerator to generate EUV to etch chips. It's been done as a test at SLAC.[1] But that approach was more expensive than AMSL's, since it needed a mile-long accelerator. There was a startup in Fremont, Lyncean Technologies, that had a 10 watt EUV source based on a small synchrotron.[2][3] They supposedly got to 10 watts. But that was too weak for EUV semiconductor work. They struggled for years to find a market, and went bankrupt in 2022. Here's the video of the equipment auction.[4] If, with this new optical system, only 20 watts are needed, that technology is worth reviving. Something YC might be interested in. An accelerator source is much cleaner than the laser tin-zapping thing AMSL uses. It's amazing that works as a commercial product. [1] https://euvlsymposium.lbl.gov/pdf/2014/39af88b9d637418d86614e7d2f4862ea.pdf https://euvlsymposium.lbl.gov/pdf/2014/39af88b9d637418d86614... [2] https://web.archive.org/web/20220119174924/https://lynceantech.com/products/#compact-light-source https://web.archive.org/web/20220119174924/https://lynceante... [3] https://www.euvlitho.com/2017/P17.pdf https://www.euvlitho.com/2017/P17.pdf [4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5eGyeNgCSY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5eGyeNgCSY
- rramadass 2y ago
  > the laser tin-zapping thing ASML uses. The Science/Engineering to make this work is nothing short of magic! There are actually two lasers; the first one to reshape the spherical tin droplet to concave shape and the second one to vaporize it to plasma generating EUV range light. The Extreme Engineering of ASML’s EUV Light Source by Asianometry - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ge2RcvDlgw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ge2RcvDlgw
xbmcuser 2y ago
If I am not wrong cost is a big factor currently not the tech advantage. It's one of the reasons we got the meme Moore's law is dead. So if someone is able to get even a generation or so older node compared to previous at cheaper price it will be a huge shift in the industry.
coliveira 2y ago
If you consider that China is unable to get ASML equipment, they have strong incentive to improve on this technology immediately. If Chinese companies start this path, then the issue is not if ASML will have improved, but if they will be able to withstand the competition.
- talldayo 2y ago
  Eh, we've got time. When NATO allies stopped selling China engines for their fighter jets, it took China more than 15 years to bootstrap an aerospace industry that could design engines on-par with Russia. There are a lot of things that China has every incentive to invest in, but literally cannot as a result of sanctions. On top of that - an underappreciated aspect of lithography is yield. It's likely China can already beat ASML in a lab setting with <5% yield rates, but that's not a competitive process. What makes TSMC so valuable is their relatively high yield on cutting-edge node technology, alongside their fairly large capacity to supply multiple businesses at once. China has to design a scalable EUV alternative, bring it up to acceptable/profitable yield and quality control, and then scale it to replace the demand for most of the domestic chip clients. It's a lot of work, and it would not surprise me if we saw a lot of China's chip efforts echo their confident-but-slowed progress in engine design.
  - sangnoir 2y ago
    Competitiveness is an economic concern one can ignore while the government is willing to pour billions on a decade+ timeframe
    - talldayo 2y ago
      Sure, China said that about their engines too. When Pakistan came to them looking to buy an F-16 replacement under contract, China couldn't provide competitive designs without using Russian powerplants. They would build the JF-17 for export, and that jet (built in 2003) wouldn't receive domestic engines until a 2019 overhaul. By that time they were competing with a ~45 year old USSR-designed engine, the Klimov RD-33. I full well expect that China is interested in producing silicon at-cost for the defense industry. It remains to be seen if they even have competitive designs though. Their premier domestic ISA, LoongArch, is based on 40-year-old MIPS architecture design. Cut off from international designs, it's not really clear how strong China's engineering chops are.

alephnerd 2y ago

> Question is, will they be able to actually commercialize it before ASML manages to get improved versions of their current litho machines out the door Canon and Nikon don't need to be bleeding edge. Majority of the chip fabrication market is 20nm, 28nm, and 40nm along with analog chips (60nm+). The sub-20nm chips will become more common as more and more fabs get turned on and EUV eventually gets commoditized, but the RoI isn't there yet for most electronics aside from high margins consumer electronics like GPUs, high end cellphones, etc. > Chinese universities and companies are working on particle accelerator based EUV sources Both the Chinese (SMIC) and the Japanese (OIST) attempts don't have great yield rates (the OIST project above is barely 50% of ASML's and SMIC's is reported to be similar). Both will crack it eventually, but the order book for ASML's High NA EUV (3nm and below) is entirely Intel, Samsung, and the American fabs for TSMC for the next 3-4 years so by the time a competitor is ASML comparable, a significant subset of high end US and SK fabs will have transitioned to 3nm.

EvgeniyZh 2y ago
Canon and Nikon have these already, and yet their market share is pretty small
Panzer04 2y ago
But how much of the monetary value generation derives from small nodes? Surely the vast majority of fab income derives from these small nodes, just based on the sheer pricing disparity between complex semiconductors and everything else.
- ethbr1 2y ago
  Compounded by the availability of the technology. Few leading node machines = machine manufacturer/fab can charge high margins Multiple trailing node machines/suppliers = machine manufacturers/fabs begin to compete on price, driving down margins
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    ^^^ this. A good example of this principle is the diffusion of analog chip and memory chip fabrication in the 1990s to early 2010s (US/TW/JP/SK in 1980s-90s to MY/SG/PH in the 90s to CN in the 2000s). The ongoing diffusion of specialized DUVL processes like 20nm, 28nm, and 40nm is another great example (US in the 2000s to TW/SK in the 2010s to CN in the late 2010s/early 2020s). Nowadays companies like PSMC are selling the entire end-to-end Fab IP for 28nm/40nm processes to companies in JP, IN, ID, US, etc, further diffusing the know how.

Animats 2y ago

It's interesting that the author's picture is with a linear accelerator. It's quite possible to use a linear accelerator to generate EUV to etch chips. It's been done as a test at SLAC.[1] But that approach was more expensive than AMSL's, since it needed a mile-long accelerator. There was a startup in Fremont, Lyncean Technologies, that had a 10 watt EUV source based on a small synchrotron.[2][3] They supposedly got to 10 watts. But that was too weak for EUV semiconductor work. They struggled for years to find a market, and went bankrupt in 2022. Here's the video of the equipment auction.[4] If, with this new optical system, only 20 watts are needed, that technology is worth reviving. Something YC might be interested in. An accelerator source is much cleaner than the laser tin-zapping thing AMSL uses. It's amazing that works as a commercial product. [1] https://euvlsymposium.lbl.gov/pdf/2014/39af88b9d637418d86614e7d2f4862ea.pdf https://euvlsymposium.lbl.gov/pdf/2014/39af88b9d637418d86614... [2] https://web.archive.org/web/20220119174924/https://lynceantech.com/products/#compact-light-source https://web.archive.org/web/20220119174924/https://lynceante... [3] https://www.euvlitho.com/2017/P17.pdf https://www.euvlitho.com/2017/P17.pdf [4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5eGyeNgCSY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5eGyeNgCSY

rramadass 2y ago
> the laser tin-zapping thing ASML uses. The Science/Engineering to make this work is nothing short of magic! There are actually two lasers; the first one to reshape the spherical tin droplet to concave shape and the second one to vaporize it to plasma generating EUV range light. The Extreme Engineering of ASML’s EUV Light Source by Asianometry - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ge2RcvDlgw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ge2RcvDlgw

xbmcuser 2y ago

If I am not wrong cost is a big factor currently not the tech advantage. It's one of the reasons we got the meme Moore's law is dead. So if someone is able to get even a generation or so older node compared to previous at cheaper price it will be a huge shift in the industry.

coliveira 2y ago

If you consider that China is unable to get ASML equipment, they have strong incentive to improve on this technology immediately. If Chinese companies start this path, then the issue is not if ASML will have improved, but if they will be able to withstand the competition.

talldayo 2y ago
Eh, we've got time. When NATO allies stopped selling China engines for their fighter jets, it took China more than 15 years to bootstrap an aerospace industry that could design engines on-par with Russia. There are a lot of things that China has every incentive to invest in, but literally cannot as a result of sanctions. On top of that - an underappreciated aspect of lithography is yield. It's likely China can already beat ASML in a lab setting with <5% yield rates, but that's not a competitive process. What makes TSMC so valuable is their relatively high yield on cutting-edge node technology, alongside their fairly large capacity to supply multiple businesses at once. China has to design a scalable EUV alternative, bring it up to acceptable/profitable yield and quality control, and then scale it to replace the demand for most of the domestic chip clients. It's a lot of work, and it would not surprise me if we saw a lot of China's chip efforts echo their confident-but-slowed progress in engine design.
- sangnoir 2y ago
  Competitiveness is an economic concern one can ignore while the government is willing to pour billions on a decade+ timeframe
  - talldayo 2y ago
    Sure, China said that about their engines too. When Pakistan came to them looking to buy an F-16 replacement under contract, China couldn't provide competitive designs without using Russian powerplants. They would build the JF-17 for export, and that jet (built in 2003) wouldn't receive domestic engines until a 2019 overhaul. By that time they were competing with a ~45 year old USSR-designed engine, the Klimov RD-33. I full well expect that China is interested in producing silicon at-cost for the defense industry. It remains to be seen if they even have competitive designs though. Their premier domestic ISA, LoongArch, is based on 40-year-old MIPS architecture design. Cut off from international designs, it's not really clear how strong China's engineering chops are.