2 ms·
In countries where this does not happen, the TFR has nevertheless fallen. I believe this is a case where people are overindexing on something specific to Japan
by solidsnack9000 2y ago
In countries where this does not happen, the TFR has nevertheless fallen. I believe this is a case where people are overindexing on something specific to Japan in order to explain an effect that is far more general.
- bobthepanda 2y agoThe effect is far more severe in Japan. Japan ranks at 192 out of 204 according to the UN. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate?wprov=sfti1#Country_ranking_by_international_organizations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fer...
- solidsnack9000 2y agoWhile the absolute difference in rank of course occurs in steps of 1, the difference in TFR between the ranks is much smaller. Replacement is a TFR of about 2.1 and few modernized countries reach that. France has a relatively high value for a modernized country -- its TFR for 2022 is listed as 1.79 (rank 124) at the source you cite. Japan's TFR in 2022 is listed as 1.26 (rank 199), while we have 1.46 for Germany (rank 172), 1.41 for Norway, 1.33 for Canada and 1.32 for Finland. If progressive policy in the area of women's employment were a significant factor in TFR, the relatively large difference between France and Finland or Canada (both quite progressive countries) and the relatively small difference between Japan and Finland are both hard to explain. If we look at the 2024 figures, which seem to be what you pulled for the ranking (Japan's ranking is higher in 2024 than in 2022, interestingly), then we have 1.8 for France, 1.6 for the UK, 1.5 for Germany, 1.5 for Canada, 1.5 for Norway, 1.4 for Finland and 1.3 for Japan. These seem to be provisional figures, though -- 2024 is not over -- I'm not sure we should take them as the basis for our discussion.