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Hasn't Putin already cracked down strongly on any dissent to his rule? So most if not all the people who would take action in relation to this sentiment are neu

by tivert 2y ago

Hasn't Putin already cracked down strongly on any dissent to his rule? So most if not all the people who would take action in relation to this sentiment are neutralized?

dave4420 2y ago
Putin could go very quickly from President to under arrest as a scapegoat, if enough insiders decide that’s the way forward. It doesn’t require any opposition politicians. More prosaically, the less popular the government, the more the people will cheat on their taxes, avoid signing up to serve in the army or the police, emigrate, and generally co-operate less with them.
rich_sasha 2y ago
The Pax Putin has been for a long time, apparently, an unwritten deal with the society, whereby he provides prosperity and prestige ("everyone is scared of Russia") in return for the society accepting authoritarian, undemocratic rule. I suppose if you think that's a worthwhile deal, then you would be satisfied with what Putin delivered, up to about March 2022. Gas money was flowing in, minor wars were won, Olympic medals collected with only minor rumblings about state-sponsored doping programs. Since the war started, it's been worse, but not enough to topple Putin. Conscripts were supposedly not sent to the frontline, for example. But sanctions are biting further, Russia is now under attack, and conscripts are totally used to repel that incursion (which is legal, but maybe unpopular). Impossible to know how topplable Putin is, but he is now outside of the parameters of the deal he brokered with his people.
- tivert 2y ago
  > The Pax Putin has been for a long time, apparently, an unwritten deal with the society, whereby he provides prosperity and prestige ("everyone is scared of Russia") in return for the society accepting authoritarian, undemocratic rule.... > Impossible to know how topplable Putin is, but he is now outside of the parameters of the deal he brokered with his people. People have been saying similar things about the Chinese Communist Party for years, and no meaningful "progress" has happened (in fact, quite the opposite). I suspect a lot of it is liberals, usually Western, reading in hope where there is none (e.g. "the deal" is just a surface-level propaganda structure, and the regime is far more solid than that alone).
  - rich_sasha 2y ago
    Indeed... Realistically the regime rests on praetorians. These can be both rock solid and flippant. I think unquestionably this "deal" and the ensuing cult of personality has been a pillar of Putin's domestic success, I guess we'll now see how strong the other pillars are.

by tivert 2y ago

Hasn't Putin already cracked down strongly on any dissent to his rule? So most if not all the people who would take action in relation to this sentiment are neutralized?

dave4420 2y ago

Putin could go very quickly from President to under arrest as a scapegoat, if enough insiders decide that’s the way forward. It doesn’t require any opposition politicians. More prosaically, the less popular the government, the more the people will cheat on their taxes, avoid signing up to serve in the army or the police, emigrate, and generally co-operate less with them.

rich_sasha 2y ago

The Pax Putin has been for a long time, apparently, an unwritten deal with the society, whereby he provides prosperity and prestige ("everyone is scared of Russia") in return for the society accepting authoritarian, undemocratic rule. I suppose if you think that's a worthwhile deal, then you would be satisfied with what Putin delivered, up to about March 2022. Gas money was flowing in, minor wars were won, Olympic medals collected with only minor rumblings about state-sponsored doping programs. Since the war started, it's been worse, but not enough to topple Putin. Conscripts were supposedly not sent to the frontline, for example. But sanctions are biting further, Russia is now under attack, and conscripts are totally used to repel that incursion (which is legal, but maybe unpopular). Impossible to know how topplable Putin is, but he is now outside of the parameters of the deal he brokered with his people.

tivert 2y ago
> The Pax Putin has been for a long time, apparently, an unwritten deal with the society, whereby he provides prosperity and prestige ("everyone is scared of Russia") in return for the society accepting authoritarian, undemocratic rule.... > Impossible to know how topplable Putin is, but he is now outside of the parameters of the deal he brokered with his people. People have been saying similar things about the Chinese Communist Party for years, and no meaningful "progress" has happened (in fact, quite the opposite). I suspect a lot of it is liberals, usually Western, reading in hope where there is none (e.g. "the deal" is just a surface-level propaganda structure, and the regime is far more solid than that alone).
- rich_sasha 2y ago
  Indeed... Realistically the regime rests on praetorians. These can be both rock solid and flippant. I think unquestionably this "deal" and the ensuing cult of personality has been a pillar of Putin's domestic success, I guess we'll now see how strong the other pillars are.