5 ms·

It Doesn't Take Much to See That the Future of EVs Is Already Here

8 points by Stratoscope 2y ago

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
ggm 2y ago
Battery Swap works. Thank you for coming to my TED talk. Forget the Gresham's law "bad batteries drive out good" idea, batteries are not a currency they are a use value. Bad batteries will be removed from circulation. As battery energy density rises, and size falls, the idea that batteries need to be complex and integrated into the vehicle monocoque will retire against the use value of a standard size replacable brick. Remember we have EV forever now. We're at the model T Ford era of battery vehicle.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > Battery Swap works Where?
  - ggm 2y ago
    China. Nio in the mainland for cars and gogoro doing scooter batteries in Taiwan. It's been used for industrial vehicles for decades. The videos I've seen of a nio swap show its a sub 5min changeover, for a full charge. And, the swap stacks are obvious candidates to soak surplus wind and solar power.
    - Kirby64 2y ago
      You’re forgetting the dynamic that allows battery swapping to occur there. You’re essentially leasing access to the batteries. I suspect in many countries leasing part of the vehicle (ie the part that actually lets you go anywhere) is pretty unpalatable. Otherwise, if you’re getting a battery swap you’ll get a battery of unknown quality. I know I wouldn’t want one.
      - defrost 2y ago
        Weird take and counter real world experience globally with "leased" items, eg: propane tanks, etc. Kleenheat and other gas tank providers are responsible for tank inspectections and rotating out tanks that are getting old and unreliable. Hot battery swap in Taiwain is logged up the whazoo for seamless ePurchase; you swap a battery for your vehicle and use it - time of purchase is logged, vehicle mileage is on your app, if a battery fails to deliver the expected milage | charge then there's no real issue, data is available and it's easy for the provider to fail that battery and provide customer with replacement and redress an economic issues.
        Kirby64 2y ago
        Propane tanks are a weird comparison. You’re leasing the entire thing, and then paying only for fuel. It’s closer to leasing an entire vehicle. With battery leasing you’ve got a shell of a car you presumably pay for, and lease the battery. Leasing the entire car and also being able to do battery swaps is an advantage, but if you own the car then now the company that does the battery swaps dictates how good of a battery you get in a swap. Again, not sure a lot of people (myself included) would be on board with that.
        hyrix 2y ago
        The tank is not the vehicle, the grill is the vehicle! People own their grills and swap the tanks. No one worries that much about the tanks because they are effectively interchangeable across brands (after some lawsuits and FTC intervention) and their performance is now regulated. Batteries are a great comparison and need the same kinds of consumer protections.
        Kirby64 2y ago
        Are we talking about proper 'leases' on propane tanks (usually very large propane tanks, meant to be attached to the side of a house/business)? Or are you referring to the usual 20 lb tanks that are stored underneath grills? Because everyone I know 'owns' 20 lb tanks. Nobody pays some monthly fee to lease them. You just typically exchange the entire tank, fuel and all, for whatever other tank someone has. If that was how the battery swaps work, then I'd agree, but that isn't what Nio is doing. You are paying a monthly fee for the battery in addition to paying for each swap.
- nashashmi 2y ago
  The battery swap idea is kept away at arm's length by car manufacturers themselves who feel responsible for customers mishandling batteries. Innovative adoptions are thwarted due to lawsuits, legal issues, ethics; like the conversation behind the too-soon viability of self-driving cars. The best use case for battery swap is by vehicle fleet owners, like Amazon and their Rivians. Or by corporations with overlord like discipline over their equipment and workers.
  - ggm 2y ago
    I love it when second order effects are used to justify first order decisions. I believe it's much simpler: there was no financial advantage to Musk toward achieving market dominance and the prior history of auto industry execs collaborating on a standard early in the life of a new product is low. There was significant financial advantage to Musk selling best of breed, and competing on battery quality and range was in his interest. I believe Tesla and Ford and others position on commonality like charger plugging is applicable here. They probably needed to be regulated into it. Which they were in Europe and Asia. US Lawfare would stop alcohol and gasoline dead as new products. And sex, television, and the Internet.
    - talldayo 2y ago
      > I love it when second order effects are used to justify first order decisions. This is how the entire free market works. If you design a product in such a way that it increases liability, manufacturing cost or reusability, a smart business will always veto it. Their goal is to design a product, not a tool. Products are designed to encourage repeat business, not to work best for the user. Tesla and Ford have no reason to encourage each other to drive lower margins. It's probably the main reason neither of them have attempted such a deal, besides the logistics nightmare. > US Lawfare would stop alcohol and gasoline dead as new products. And sex, television, and the Internet. I swear to god; all it took was one FTC suit against Apple and half the damn website wants to depose US regulators. What has gotten into you lot?
      - nashashmi 2y ago
floxy 2y ago
Anyone know the trend in new gas station construction for the recent past for the U.S.? Also would be interested to know stats about gas station trends in places like Norway, where new car sales are something like 90% EVs. https://cleantechnica.com/2024/08/02/evs-take-94-3-share-in-norway-new-record-high/ https://cleantechnica.com/2024/08/02/evs-take-94-3-share-in-...
nashashmi 2y ago
Anyone else find the article quite dense in technical verbiage?

8 points by Stratoscope 2y ago

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

ggm 2y ago

Battery Swap works. Thank you for coming to my TED talk. Forget the Gresham's law "bad batteries drive out good" idea, batteries are not a currency they are a use value. Bad batteries will be removed from circulation. As battery energy density rises, and size falls, the idea that batteries need to be complex and integrated into the vehicle monocoque will retire against the use value of a standard size replacable brick. Remember we have EV forever now. We're at the model T Ford era of battery vehicle.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> Battery Swap works Where?
- ggm 2y ago
  China. Nio in the mainland for cars and gogoro doing scooter batteries in Taiwan. It's been used for industrial vehicles for decades. The videos I've seen of a nio swap show its a sub 5min changeover, for a full charge. And, the swap stacks are obvious candidates to soak surplus wind and solar power.
  - Kirby64 2y ago
    You’re forgetting the dynamic that allows battery swapping to occur there. You’re essentially leasing access to the batteries. I suspect in many countries leasing part of the vehicle (ie the part that actually lets you go anywhere) is pretty unpalatable. Otherwise, if you’re getting a battery swap you’ll get a battery of unknown quality. I know I wouldn’t want one.
    - defrost 2y ago
      Weird take and counter real world experience globally with "leased" items, eg: propane tanks, etc. Kleenheat and other gas tank providers are responsible for tank inspectections and rotating out tanks that are getting old and unreliable. Hot battery swap in Taiwain is logged up the whazoo for seamless ePurchase; you swap a battery for your vehicle and use it - time of purchase is logged, vehicle mileage is on your app, if a battery fails to deliver the expected milage | charge then there's no real issue, data is available and it's easy for the provider to fail that battery and provide customer with replacement and redress an economic issues.
      - Kirby64 2y ago
        Propane tanks are a weird comparison. You’re leasing the entire thing, and then paying only for fuel. It’s closer to leasing an entire vehicle. With battery leasing you’ve got a shell of a car you presumably pay for, and lease the battery. Leasing the entire car and also being able to do battery swaps is an advantage, but if you own the car then now the company that does the battery swaps dictates how good of a battery you get in a swap. Again, not sure a lot of people (myself included) would be on board with that.
        hyrix 2y ago
        The tank is not the vehicle, the grill is the vehicle! People own their grills and swap the tanks. No one worries that much about the tanks because they are effectively interchangeable across brands (after some lawsuits and FTC intervention) and their performance is now regulated. Batteries are a great comparison and need the same kinds of consumer protections.
        Kirby64 2y ago
        Are we talking about proper 'leases' on propane tanks (usually very large propane tanks, meant to be attached to the side of a house/business)? Or are you referring to the usual 20 lb tanks that are stored underneath grills? Because everyone I know 'owns' 20 lb tanks. Nobody pays some monthly fee to lease them. You just typically exchange the entire tank, fuel and all, for whatever other tank someone has. If that was how the battery swaps work, then I'd agree, but that isn't what Nio is doing. You are paying a monthly fee for the battery in addition to paying for each swap.
nashashmi 2y ago
The battery swap idea is kept away at arm's length by car manufacturers themselves who feel responsible for customers mishandling batteries. Innovative adoptions are thwarted due to lawsuits, legal issues, ethics; like the conversation behind the too-soon viability of self-driving cars. The best use case for battery swap is by vehicle fleet owners, like Amazon and their Rivians. Or by corporations with overlord like discipline over their equipment and workers.
- ggm 2y ago
  I love it when second order effects are used to justify first order decisions. I believe it's much simpler: there was no financial advantage to Musk toward achieving market dominance and the prior history of auto industry execs collaborating on a standard early in the life of a new product is low. There was significant financial advantage to Musk selling best of breed, and competing on battery quality and range was in his interest. I believe Tesla and Ford and others position on commonality like charger plugging is applicable here. They probably needed to be regulated into it. Which they were in Europe and Asia. US Lawfare would stop alcohol and gasoline dead as new products. And sex, television, and the Internet.
  - talldayo 2y ago
    > I love it when second order effects are used to justify first order decisions. This is how the entire free market works. If you design a product in such a way that it increases liability, manufacturing cost or reusability, a smart business will always veto it. Their goal is to design a product, not a tool. Products are designed to encourage repeat business, not to work best for the user. Tesla and Ford have no reason to encourage each other to drive lower margins. It's probably the main reason neither of them have attempted such a deal, besides the logistics nightmare. > US Lawfare would stop alcohol and gasoline dead as new products. And sex, television, and the Internet. I swear to god; all it took was one FTC suit against Apple and half the damn website wants to depose US regulators. What has gotten into you lot?
    - nashashmi 2y ago

floxy 2y ago

Anyone know the trend in new gas station construction for the recent past for the U.S.? Also would be interested to know stats about gas station trends in places like Norway, where new car sales are something like 90% EVs. https://cleantechnica.com/2024/08/02/evs-take-94-3-share-in-norway-new-record-high/ https://cleantechnica.com/2024/08/02/evs-take-94-3-share-in-...

nashashmi 2y ago

Anyone else find the article quite dense in technical verbiage?