3 ms·

>I do think this problem will escalate in the next 10 years I think low/declining birth rate is a self-solving problem (assuming it is a problem) that isn't wo

>I do think this problem will escalate in the next 10 years I think low/declining birth rate is a self-solving problem (assuming it is a problem) that isn't worth crying bloody murder about. Why? Simple: The world will always be inherited by children, childless people literally have no equity in the future. Childless people cannot affect future birth rates, people with children can and the children will. The birth rate decline will eventually level out because life selects for people who have children.

fragmede 2y ago
> Childless people cannot affect future birth rates That's not true. Maybe in a vacuum it's true, but those children don't exist in a vacuum, and as such, are human beings with agency which is influenced by people around them, including the childless people. If a childless person convinces the child to also not have kids, the child won't have kids, affecting future birth rates. If childless people make the world a bleak place, with climate change and politics, such that children who have grown into adults don't want to bring a child into the world, then they've affected future birth rates.
kredd 2y ago
Again, if every couple only had one child, we still would be having this issue, albeit slower. There’s no point in time we’ve had disproportionately high percentage older people either. Theoretically the issue might be resolved by itself, but it would be an incredibly tough road for everyone involved. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with people who don’t want children right now. They don’t want it, again, because given current paradigm, it’s just a net negative for a young couple to have a kid. We can preach “no equity in the future” as much as we want, but in the real world, you don’t need it unless you’re subscribed to a specific cultural or moral belief. Also, the more childless people live through their lives and pave the way to emotional fulfilment, the more likely for others to follow.
- randomdata 2y ago
  > it’s just a net negative for a young couple to have a kid. Funnily enough, that fact alone might be enough to reverse course! What we see over and over and over and over again throughout history is that the rich will do something that stands out and then the poor will try their best to emulate it; seemingly stemming from a subconscious (and perhaps sometimes conscious) "That must be why they are rich. If I do the same, I will become rich too!" In fact, I would argue that the fertility situation is just another example of that. When the rich were able to start choosing to not have children, they did, and the poor have been trying to do the same ever since. As suggested in earlier comments, it is quite clear that the no children/few children movement started with the rich, and now is working its way through the entire population. Like you imply, perhaps unintentionally, it has become assumed in our culture that the rich are rich because they don't have children. To the point that we see a lot of messaging towards our youth along the lines of "What about your education? Having children is throwing your future away." However, as we reach the long tail of the poor no longer having children, there is a pretty good chance that the rich will start having children again because they can – as a display of their opulence. Should that take hold, the poor will try everything they can to follow suit. They always do. And then... Problem solved.

fragmede 2y ago

> Childless people cannot affect future birth rates That's not true. Maybe in a vacuum it's true, but those children don't exist in a vacuum, and as such, are human beings with agency which is influenced by people around them, including the childless people. If a childless person convinces the child to also not have kids, the child won't have kids, affecting future birth rates. If childless people make the world a bleak place, with climate change and politics, such that children who have grown into adults don't want to bring a child into the world, then they've affected future birth rates.

kredd 2y ago

Again, if every couple only had one child, we still would be having this issue, albeit slower. There’s no point in time we’ve had disproportionately high percentage older people either. Theoretically the issue might be resolved by itself, but it would be an incredibly tough road for everyone involved. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with people who don’t want children right now. They don’t want it, again, because given current paradigm, it’s just a net negative for a young couple to have a kid. We can preach “no equity in the future” as much as we want, but in the real world, you don’t need it unless you’re subscribed to a specific cultural or moral belief. Also, the more childless people live through their lives and pave the way to emotional fulfilment, the more likely for others to follow.

randomdata 2y ago
> it’s just a net negative for a young couple to have a kid. Funnily enough, that fact alone might be enough to reverse course! What we see over and over and over and over again throughout history is that the rich will do something that stands out and then the poor will try their best to emulate it; seemingly stemming from a subconscious (and perhaps sometimes conscious) "That must be why they are rich. If I do the same, I will become rich too!" In fact, I would argue that the fertility situation is just another example of that. When the rich were able to start choosing to not have children, they did, and the poor have been trying to do the same ever since. As suggested in earlier comments, it is quite clear that the no children/few children movement started with the rich, and now is working its way through the entire population. Like you imply, perhaps unintentionally, it has become assumed in our culture that the rich are rich because they don't have children. To the point that we see a lot of messaging towards our youth along the lines of "What about your education? Having children is throwing your future away." However, as we reach the long tail of the poor no longer having children, there is a pretty good chance that the rich will start having children again because they can – as a display of their opulence. Should that take hold, the poor will try everything they can to follow suit. They always do. And then... Problem solved.