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> Looking at the extreme weather, if it was a water spout, which it appears to be, it’s what I would class as a black swan event,” Bayesian methods don't deal
by bdjsiqoocwk 2y ago
> Looking at the extreme weather, if it was a water spout, which it appears to be, it’s what I would class as a black swan event,”
Bayesian methods don't deal well with black swans.
- gizajob 2y agoI’ve been pondering the cruel irony of this quite a lot. Double whammy is that his co-accused in the fraud trial was killed by a car the same weekend - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c74jzd22dkno https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c74jzd22dkno Naturally it brought out the conspiracy theorists because the chances of those two events occurring simultaneously seem ludicrously small, like can’t even happen small. But it seems like the statistical gods had other ideas last weekend. It’s a cruel world sometimes, even for the richest.
- NeutralCrane 2y agoNo statistical methods do, Bayesian or frequentist. That’s the definition of a black swan, it’s something completely out of the data set and therefore can’t be forecasted.