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Seems weather websites actually have great reporting on this. Angela Barcares, Mike Lynch’s wife, survived. Speaking to the Italian daily La Repubblica while s
by goles 2y ago
Seems weather websites actually have great reporting on this.
Angela Barcares, Mike Lynch’s wife, survived. Speaking to the Italian daily La Repubblica while sitting in a wheelchair in a Sicilian hospital, Bacares said she was woken at 4 a.m. local time as the boat tilted.
She said she and her husband were initially not concerned, but became worried when the windows of the yacht shattered.
The yacht sank after a small waterspout – a type of tornado – spun over the Mediterranean island, likely capsizing the boat, which was anchored about a half a mile from the port of Porticello. Eyewitnesses described furious gales and hurricane winds that left a mountain of debris near the pier.
One witness, the owner of a villa looking out to where the Bayesian was anchored, said that after news of the sinking yacht emerged, he watched back his CCTV footage, where the boat could be seen sinking.
“In just 60 seconds, you can see the ship disappear,” he told Italian outlet ANSA. “You can see clearly what’s happening. There was nothing that could be done for the vessel. It disappeared in a very short time.”
...
“Looking at the extreme weather, if it was a water spout, which it appears to be, it’s what I would class as a black swan event,” he said, referring to a rare, unpredictable occurence. “Even outside of the maritime industry, all industries struggle with the black swan events,” he added.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/four-bodies-found-in-search-for-those-missing-from-sunken-superyacht/1682998 https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/four-bodies-foun...
Pretty horrific and bizarre especially considering his daughter was among the victims. As others have mentioned the 75-meter mast and position of the keel could have been factors but the investigation has to run it's course.
- djaouen 2y ago[flagged]
- bdjsiqoocwk 2y ago> Looking at the extreme weather, if it was a water spout, which it appears to be, it’s what I would class as a black swan event,” Bayesian methods don't deal well with black swans.
- gizajob 2y agoI’ve been pondering the cruel irony of this quite a lot. Double whammy is that his co-accused in the fraud trial was killed by a car the same weekend - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c74jzd22dkno https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c74jzd22dkno Naturally it brought out the conspiracy theorists because the chances of those two events occurring simultaneously seem ludicrously small, like can’t even happen small. But it seems like the statistical gods had other ideas last weekend. It’s a cruel world sometimes, even for the richest.
- NeutralCrane 2y agoNo statistical methods do, Bayesian or frequentist. That’s the definition of a black swan, it’s something completely out of the data set and therefore can’t be forecasted.