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They do actually. Climate models are iterative so error compounds. If you dig into what those models do, well... cover your eyes. Some frequently run off the r
by mike_hearn 2y ago
They do actually. Climate models are iterative so error compounds.
If you dig into what those models do, well... cover your eyes. Some frequently run off the rails and predict a climate like Venus or Pluto. They're non-deterministic and don't always do this. Obviously that's due to bugs but the bugs don't get fixed. Instead they just do lots of runs and pick the ones that don't go crazy.
- _heimdall 2y agoThis is a huge blind spot with regards to how climate models are actually reported. If you see the sheer number of models run and number of models reported on, you could easily think researchers are throwing darts and cherry picking results that match the narrative they wish to tell. More importantly, because models are iterative the data becomes more and more useless as time goes on and predictions are missed. In this case, any model that expected the Atlantic to increase in temperature this year will likely be even less accurate for next year's prediction. Sure the models can be re-run with the latest climate data, but that just moves the goal posts and raises the question of when we realize the models aren't predictive.