5 ms·

Hurricane season has flatlined. When will it roar back to life?

32 points by howard941 2y ago

brink 2y ago
When they measure the heat content in the Gulf, do we know how deep they're measuring? If the weather is still, won't the surface water heat faster from the sun when it's not mixed with the deeper gulf water resulting in new "highs"?
- upon_drumhead 2y ago
  > Oceanic Heat Content (OHC) is the measure of the integrated vertical temperature from the sea surface to the depth of the 26°C isotherm and computed from the altimeter-derived isotherm depths in the upper ocean relative to 20°C. https://coastwatch.noaa.gov/cwn/products/oceanic-heat-content-mixed-layer-depth-and-depths-20degc-and-26degc-isotherms.html https://coastwatch.noaa.gov/cwn/products/oceanic-heat-conten... They calculate based upon the depth of a specific temperature rather then temperature at a specific depth.
- waterthrowaway 2y ago
  In this case it seems ocean heat content is a depth integrated measure (see page 11 of this document I found by following links in the above article https://upper-ocean-dynamics.earth.miami.edu/_assets/pdf/atbd_ohc_nesdis_v3.4.pdf https://upper-ocean-dynamics.earth.miami.edu/_assets/pdf/atb...). Seems like that OHC measure uses some reanalysis model but surface temperatures can be measured by satellite, and temperatures below can be measured from moorings in the Gulf (https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/obs.shtml https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/obs.shtml) and argo floats currently in the region (https://argo.ucsd.edu/about/status/ https://argo.ucsd.edu/about/status/). I would expect them to all show similar trends.
raggi 2y ago
Oddly timed article with Ernesto being what it was and is
- jjulius 2y ago
  This feels akin to, "Global warming probably isn't real because today is colder than usual".
  - ydnaclementine 2y ago
    Too many hurricanes!! Not enough hurricanes!! "Acktshually we have less hurricanes but they are more intense than before"
TheChaplain 2y ago
Always amazed by those living in tornado areas, I've seen the total destruction those things do on YouTube and people just seem to pick up the pieces and rebuild their homes like it's another day. I'd be devastated if something came and obliterated my home..
- SoftTalker 2y ago
  I've lived in midwest "tornado" areas my whole life. I've never seen a tornado. They can be very destructive, but are quite localized. They don't affect nearly as many people as a major hurricane, so cleanup and recovery is much easier.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - matthewdgreen 2y ago
    Few years ago in Iowa we ran into a sudden weather system with (the radio later said) a big tornado in it. Got off the highway, only to be on a different highway with no shelter except for highway overpasses and a flimsy gas station a couple miles down. Technically we also didn't see the tornado, but the weather around it was like nothing I've ever experienced or want to experience again: continuous multi-colored lightning, torrential rain, big hail. (And nothing even close to an appropriate building to shelter in.) Afterward my friend looked a little thoughtful and said "oh, I guess I forgot how bad the weather out here gets." Reminded me of the way people allegedly got used to the Blitz.
    - geerlingguy 2y ago
      Honestly hail and damaging winds cause more cumulative damage; growing up we had a derecho and hail storm that knocked out power for a week and broke at least one window (and added tons of golf ball dents) on every car that was parked outside within about a 3 mile area. The wind pulled up tons of even healthy trees, bringing down a bunch of power lines, and it was probably the last time in my life I remember seeing more than two or three neighbors outside in the front yard at the same time (suburban midwest).
readthenotes1 2y ago
Didn't we just read that an Atlantic La Niña is forming, cooling the surface down? https://preview.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/atlantic-nina-verge-developing-heres-why-we-should-pay-attention https://preview.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/atla...
bloopernova 2y ago
Very cool way of charting the energy used by cyclones, mentioned in the article, Accumulated Cyclone Energy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy I don't suppose anyone knows where to find this graph but for different years? https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/THEJGISQANBTNKLUUUYX4JNS6U.png&w=1200 https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://... Edited to add, this might be the source of the image above, but no charts for previous years: https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=...
- alexk307 2y ago
  Here's ACE since 1851: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurric...

32 points by howard941 2y ago

When they measure the heat content in the Gulf, do we know how deep they're measuring? If the weather is still, won't the surface water heat faster from the sun when it's not mixed with the deeper gulf water resulting in new "highs"?

upon_drumhead 2y ago
> Oceanic Heat Content (OHC) is the measure of the integrated vertical temperature from the sea surface to the depth of the 26°C isotherm and computed from the altimeter-derived isotherm depths in the upper ocean relative to 20°C. https://coastwatch.noaa.gov/cwn/products/oceanic-heat-content-mixed-layer-depth-and-depths-20degc-and-26degc-isotherms.html https://coastwatch.noaa.gov/cwn/products/oceanic-heat-conten... They calculate based upon the depth of a specific temperature rather then temperature at a specific depth.
waterthrowaway 2y ago
In this case it seems ocean heat content is a depth integrated measure (see page 11 of this document I found by following links in the above article https://upper-ocean-dynamics.earth.miami.edu/_assets/pdf/atbd_ohc_nesdis_v3.4.pdf https://upper-ocean-dynamics.earth.miami.edu/_assets/pdf/atb...). Seems like that OHC measure uses some reanalysis model but surface temperatures can be measured by satellite, and temperatures below can be measured from moorings in the Gulf (https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/obs.shtml https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/obs.shtml) and argo floats currently in the region (https://argo.ucsd.edu/about/status/ https://argo.ucsd.edu/about/status/). I would expect them to all show similar trends.

raggi 2y ago

Oddly timed article with Ernesto being what it was and is

jjulius 2y ago
This feels akin to, "Global warming probably isn't real because today is colder than usual".
- ydnaclementine 2y ago
  Too many hurricanes!! Not enough hurricanes!! "Acktshually we have less hurricanes but they are more intense than before"

TheChaplain 2y ago

Always amazed by those living in tornado areas, I've seen the total destruction those things do on YouTube and people just seem to pick up the pieces and rebuild their homes like it's another day. I'd be devastated if something came and obliterated my home..

SoftTalker 2y ago
I've lived in midwest "tornado" areas my whole life. I've never seen a tornado. They can be very destructive, but are quite localized. They don't affect nearly as many people as a major hurricane, so cleanup and recovery is much easier.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- matthewdgreen 2y ago
  Few years ago in Iowa we ran into a sudden weather system with (the radio later said) a big tornado in it. Got off the highway, only to be on a different highway with no shelter except for highway overpasses and a flimsy gas station a couple miles down. Technically we also didn't see the tornado, but the weather around it was like nothing I've ever experienced or want to experience again: continuous multi-colored lightning, torrential rain, big hail. (And nothing even close to an appropriate building to shelter in.) Afterward my friend looked a little thoughtful and said "oh, I guess I forgot how bad the weather out here gets." Reminded me of the way people allegedly got used to the Blitz.
  - geerlingguy 2y ago
    Honestly hail and damaging winds cause more cumulative damage; growing up we had a derecho and hail storm that knocked out power for a week and broke at least one window (and added tons of golf ball dents) on every car that was parked outside within about a 3 mile area. The wind pulled up tons of even healthy trees, bringing down a bunch of power lines, and it was probably the last time in my life I remember seeing more than two or three neighbors outside in the front yard at the same time (suburban midwest).

readthenotes1 2y ago

Didn't we just read that an Atlantic La Niña is forming, cooling the surface down? https://preview.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/atlantic-nina-verge-developing-heres-why-we-should-pay-attention https://preview.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/atla...

bloopernova 2y ago

Very cool way of charting the energy used by cyclones, mentioned in the article, Accumulated Cyclone Energy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy I don't suppose anyone knows where to find this graph but for different years? https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/THEJGISQANBTNKLUUUYX4JNS6U.png&w=1200 https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://... Edited to add, this might be the source of the image above, but no charts for previous years: https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=...

alexk307 2y ago
Here's ACE since 1851: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurric...