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I tend to agree that it's a pointless race to the bottom with too many jobs per household, but that's really a game theoretic outcome. If your neighbors want to

I tend to agree that it's a pointless race to the bottom with too many jobs per household, but that's really a game theoretic outcome. If your neighbors want to "get ahead" by having two employed adults, or several jobs each, then it basically forces you to earn equivalently or you'll be priced out. However, the most interesting thing to note is the discourse. You and the sibling commenter have advanced incompatible and opposite narratives.

toomuchtodo 2y ago
I don't think it's incompatible, I think you are having trouble reconciling the data (which is totally fair, we are discussing a very complex system with a lot of inherent data blindness). Labor force participation rate is high because higher price levels have brought people back into the labor force (which fuzzes the unemployment rate, because people newly looking for a job are considered unemployed while searching), along with folks having to work multiple jobs and households that require dual incomes just to get by. If labor force participation rate is at all time highs, unemployment is historically low but ticking up, the consumer is not confident, the number of folks searching for new jobs is at all time highs, it is taking folks 3, 6, 9, 12 months to get a job (even with "low" unemployment), and credit card and auto loan defaults are hitting a decade high, what does this tell us? Everyone employed is meaningless if they're living hand to mouth, their job can evaporate at any time, they're filling the wage expense gap with credit (that there is evidence they're no longer able to service), and if you get knocked out of your job, it could take months or a year+ to get into a new one. I argue the economy can handle "labor shortages" (or rather, having to pay people a living wage) vs the current macro, by lowering the federal funds rate. If the Fed waits until there is a labor market crises, they're already too late. https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2024-08-20/fed-officials-uneasy-about-job-market-they-get-ready-jackson-hole https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2024-08-20/fed-offic... https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/28-americans-are-now-searching-new-job-highest-rate-decade-rcna167368 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/28-americans-are-no... https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/oxfam-report-low-wage-workers-still-make-up-23percent-of-us-workers.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/oxfam-report-low-wage-worker... https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/29/us-workers-are-less-satisfied-with-nearly-every-aspect-of-their-jobs-survey-finds.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/29/us-workers-are-less-satisfie... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumers-increasingly-tapped-110000591.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumers-increasingly-tap... https://www.bai.org/banking-strategies/credit-card-and-auto-loans-falling-into-delinquency-hit-highest-rate-in-a-decade-and-defaults-have-not-peaked-fed-says/ https://www.bai.org/banking-strategies/credit-card-and-auto-... https://www.marketplace.org/2024/08/20/for-most-u-s-households-buying-a-home-isnt-within-reach/ https://www.marketplace.org/2024/08/20/for-most-u-s-househol...

toomuchtodo 2y ago

I don't think it's incompatible, I think you are having trouble reconciling the data (which is totally fair, we are discussing a very complex system with a lot of inherent data blindness). Labor force participation rate is high because higher price levels have brought people back into the labor force (which fuzzes the unemployment rate, because people newly looking for a job are considered unemployed while searching), along with folks having to work multiple jobs and households that require dual incomes just to get by. If labor force participation rate is at all time highs, unemployment is historically low but ticking up, the consumer is not confident, the number of folks searching for new jobs is at all time highs, it is taking folks 3, 6, 9, 12 months to get a job (even with "low" unemployment), and credit card and auto loan defaults are hitting a decade high, what does this tell us? Everyone employed is meaningless if they're living hand to mouth, their job can evaporate at any time, they're filling the wage expense gap with credit (that there is evidence they're no longer able to service), and if you get knocked out of your job, it could take months or a year+ to get into a new one. I argue the economy can handle "labor shortages" (or rather, having to pay people a living wage) vs the current macro, by lowering the federal funds rate. If the Fed waits until there is a labor market crises, they're already too late. https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2024-08-20/fed-officials-uneasy-about-job-market-they-get-ready-jackson-hole https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2024-08-20/fed-offic... https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/28-americans-are-now-searching-new-job-highest-rate-decade-rcna167368 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/28-americans-are-no... https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/oxfam-report-low-wage-workers-still-make-up-23percent-of-us-workers.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/oxfam-report-low-wage-worker... https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/29/us-workers-are-less-satisfied-with-nearly-every-aspect-of-their-jobs-survey-finds.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/29/us-workers-are-less-satisfie... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumers-increasingly-tapped-110000591.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumers-increasingly-tap... https://www.bai.org/banking-strategies/credit-card-and-auto-loans-falling-into-delinquency-hit-highest-rate-in-a-decade-and-defaults-have-not-peaked-fed-says/ https://www.bai.org/banking-strategies/credit-card-and-auto-... https://www.marketplace.org/2024/08/20/for-most-u-s-households-buying-a-home-isnt-within-reach/ https://www.marketplace.org/2024/08/20/for-most-u-s-househol...