No, it it still the case that “if you win the lottery jackpot, then you will win less than the average lottery winner”. Let me see if I can explain in another w

No, it it still the case that “if you win the lottery jackpot, then you will win less than the average lottery winner”. Let me see if I can explain in another way that might make this more clear… the example of only 2 people actually confuses the issue. So in our example with 50% chance of winning, we know the average number of winners will be n/2, where n is the number of players. This means that the average lottery winner will win prize_pool / (n/2). Now, let’s say we know I won. That means the average number of other winners is going to be (n-1) / 2. If you add in the known winner (me), we would have an average of 1 + (n-1)/2 winners… meaning the prize per person when I win is going to be prize_pool / (1 + (n-1)/2). You can clearly see that the prize pool will be smaller when you know I am a winner. If it isn’t clear, just sub in 10 for N and solve it… the average winner will get prize_pool / (10/2) or prize_pool / 5. When I win, the average winner will get prize_pool / (1 + (10-1)/2), or prize_pool / 5.5. You can see that when I win, the average is lower. This of course works whenever you start with the assumption that a particular person wins… you are turning the 1/2 chance for that person into a 100% chance, which increases the overall average number of winners.