“AI” never existed, at least AGI never did. AI that works is called machine learning and it’s not going away because it actually drives revenue at many companie

“AI” never existed, at least AGI never did. AI that works is called machine learning and it’s not going away because it actually drives revenue at many companies. But the people who are working on that were working on it before blockchain and they’ll be working on it long after the next hype cycle runs out of steam. Unlike grifting, actual expertise takes time. I have mixed feelings. On the one hand, I have a ton of schadenfreude for the AI maximalists (see: Leopold Aschenbrenner and the $1 trillion cluster that will never be), hype men (LinkedIn gurus and Twitter “technologists” that post threads with the thread emoji regurgitating listicles) or grifters (see: Rabbit R1 and the LAM vaporware). On the other hand, I’m worried about another AI winter. We don’t need more people figuring out how to make bigger models, we need more fundamental research on low-resource contexts. Transformers are really just a trick to be able to ingest the whole internet. But there are many times where we don’t have a whole internet worth of data. The failure of LLMs on ARC is a pretty clear indication we’re not there yet (although I wouldn’t consider ARC sufficient either).