4 ms·

I haven't "snuck in" anything, I very explicitly stated that it's the conditional expectation I'm talking about. Expected(Number of winners | Pop size N and Yo

I haven't "snuck in" anything, I very explicitly stated that it's the conditional expectation I'm talking about. Expected(Number of winners | Pop size N and You win) = 1 + Expected(Number winners | Pop size N-1) For small p, large N, that's ~1 + Expected(number of winners).

kgwgk 2y ago
The main problem with your argument is that the "average lottery winner" doesn't win JackpotPool/Average winners.