You're both right! This is where the subjective Bayesian framework helps clarify things. The passive-voice term "expected winners" leaves ambiguous a key idea:

You're both right! This is where the subjective Bayesian framework helps clarify things. The passive-voice term "expected winners" leaves ambiguous a key idea: Expected by whom? The number of winners you expect depends on what information you have, namely, whether or not you know that you are holding a winning lottery ticket or not!