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That doesn’t necessarily imply individual predictions are particularly good. If between two outcomes I say X wins 50% and I pick the winner randomly I’m going
by Retric 2y ago
That doesn’t necessarily imply individual predictions are particularly good. If between two outcomes I say X wins 50% and I pick the winner randomly I’m going to be correct 50% of the time. However, if I offered people bets at 50/50 odds based on those predictions I would lose a great deal of money to people making more accurate predictions.
- kqr 2y agoThis is true! The Metaculus community forecasts also performs very well (in terms of score) in tournaments including other aggregation mechanisms though.