14 ms·

To be honest, I was surprised by ChatGPT. I didn’t think we were close. We are running out of textual data now to train on… so now they have switched to VIDEO.

by h_tbob 2y ago

To be honest, I was surprised by ChatGPT. I didn’t think we were close. We are running out of textual data now to train on… so now they have switched to VIDEO. Geez now they can train on all the VIDEOS on the internet. And when they finally get bots working, they will have limitless streams of TACTILE data… Writing it off as the next fad seems fun. But to be honest, I was shocked by what openai did the first time. So they have my respect. I don’t think many of us saw it coming. And I think writing their creativity off again may not be wise. So when they say the bubble is about to break… I get it. But I don’t see how. I hardly ever pay for anything. But I gladly spend money on ai to get the answers I need. Just makes my work work! Also I would say the economic benefit of this tech for workers is that it will 2x the average worker as they catch on. Seriously I am a 2x coder compared to what I was because of this. Therefore if me a person who hardly ever spends money has to buy it… I think eventually all businesses will realize all their employees need it. This driving massive revenue for those who sell it. But it may not be the companies we think.

slashdave 2y ago
Good point about robots. But there will be a throughput issue. You cannot accelerate physical movement.
icholy 2y ago
> Seriously I am a 2x coder compared to what I was because of this. You probably shouldn't advertise that.
- rahimnathwani 2y ago
  They're a 20x coder now.
- CooCooCaCha 2y ago
  I am highly skeptical that a competent coder sees a 2x boost.
  - CuriouslyC 2y ago
    You shouldn't be. For code bases where context is mostly local they destroy human throughput by comparison. They only fall down hard when used in spaghetti dumpster fire codebases where you have to paste the contents of 6+ files into context or the code crosses a multiple service boundaries to do anything. A competent engineer architects their systems to make their tools as effective as possible, so maybe your idea of competent is "first order" and you need higher order conception of a good software engineer.
    - grogenaut 2y ago
      could you provide some examples, code or repos and questions where it does a good job for you (question can also just be completion). Obviously you're having really good experiences with the tools that other aren't having. I'd definitely appreciate that over a lot of assurances taht I'm doing it wrong with my spaghetti code.
      - CuriouslyC 2y ago
        Try these: Take a SQL schema, and ask AI to generate crud endpoints for the schema, then sit down and code it by yourself. Then try generating client side actions and state management for those endpoints. Time yourself, and compare how long it takes you. Even if you're fast and you cut and paste from template work and quickly hand edit, the AI will be done and on a smoke break before you're even a quarter of the way through. Ask the AI to generate correctly typed seed data for your database, using realistic values. Again, the AI will be done long before you. Try porting a library of helper functions from one language to another. This is another task where AI will win handily Also, ask AI to write unit tests with mocks for your existing code. It's not amazing at integration tests but with mocks in play it slays.
        linuxftw 2y ago
        Your experience mirrors mine. I use ChatGPT or meta for boiler plate code like this. I write golang at my day job, and there's a lot of boiler plat for that language, saves a lot of time, but most importantly, does the tedious boring things I hate doing.
- Flop7331 2y ago
  2x loc!
  - corytheboyd 2y ago
    I’ve seen copilot spit out garbage dozens of lines long for something I swore must be one or two stdlib functions. Yep, it was, after reading some real documentation and using my brain. It was some NodeJS stuff, which I never work with. Don’t get me wrong, I still find it a helpful tool, but it is not at all a good, seasoned programmer— it is an algorithm predicting the next token based on the current tokens.
    - warkdarrior 2y ago
      > I still find it a helpful tool, but it is not at all a good, seasoned programmer How quickly the goalposts move! Two years ago it was "AI will never be able to write code", now we're complaining that "AI is not a seasoned programmer". What are we going to be complaining about, two years from now?
      - majewsky 2y ago
        > Two years ago it was "AI will never be able to write code" GitHub Copilot was released nearly three years ago.
      - corytheboyd 2y ago
        I’m not really complaining, I’m saying it’s useful, but don’t pretend it’s better than what it is. It’s cruise control on a car— makes long drives better, but doesn’t literally drive for you.
- alexander2002 2y ago
  lol this made me chuckle
djaouen 2y ago
How are you using AI to double your coding productivity? Are you using ChatGPT, or Claude, or GitHub Copilot? I am an AI-skeptic, so I am curious here. Thanks!
- naet 2y ago
  I've tried various AI coding solutions and have found at best a mild boost but not the amazing multipliers I hear about online. Copilot gives you some autofill that sometimes can be helpful but often not that helpful. I think the best it did for me was helping with something repetitive where I was editing a big list of things in the same way (like adding an ID to every tag in a list) and it helped take over and finish the task with a little less manual clicking. ChatGPT has helped with small code snippets like writing a regular expression. I never got 100% regex mastery, usually I would have to look up a couple things to write one but GPT can shortcut that process. I get a little paranoid about AI provided code not actually working so I end up writing a large number of tests to check it, which could be a good thing but can feel tedious. I'm also curious how other people are leveraging them to get more than I am. I honestly don't try too hard. At one point I did try really hard to get AI to do more heavy code lifting but was disappointed with my results so I stopped... but maybe things have improved a bit since then.
  - bamboozled 2y ago
    I don’t know if I’ve done something wrong my my copilot is so wrong I just turned it off. I don’t understand the appeal at all. I don’t remember the last time I thought one of its suggestions was useful. For me LSP has been the real game changer.
  - paradite 2y ago
    It can get a little tedious if you are just using ChatGPT or Claude as it is. Also you are limited by lack of context on existing codebase. That's why there are a lot of tools that help to setup a proper workflow around these LLMs. For terminal-based workflow, you can checkout aider or plandex. For GUI-based workflow, you can try 16x Prompt (I built it).
  - 2y ago
MrVandemar 2y ago
> Seriously I am a 2x coder compared to what I was because of this. Isn't the energy consumption of this technology pretty catastrophic? Do you consider the issue of energy consumption so abstracted you don't worry about it? Do you do anything to offset your increased carbon emissions?
- danielmarkbruce 2y ago
  They certainly are not providing these services at less than electricity costs. So if you are spending $20 a month on it, they are spending less than that on electricity. It's very low compared to any person in the first world's energy spend.
  - LtWorf 2y ago
    How do you know?
    - danielmarkbruce 2y ago
      Common sense, having been around cloud operations for a bit. The big cloud providers run gross margins around 30%. So if openai are using MSFT and getting a "good deal" maybe MSFT only get 20% GM. So, $1 of openai compute costs MSFT say $0.80. Of that cost of providing the service, something like 30-40% goes to electricity. So, lets say the electricity cost is $0.30 for $1 of OpenAI compute. (And that's probably a steelman, I think it's actually more like $0.20. ) There is about zero chance OpenAI are running their service at a 70% negative gross margin.
      - LtWorf 2y ago
        Doesn't seem anything definitive to me.
        danielmarkbruce 2y ago
        Not definitive. But if you need a water tight argument to change your mind on something, you'll never change it.
bawolff 2y ago
I think all this can be true, and we are still in a massive AI bubble that may pop at any moment. ChatGPT truly is impressive. Nonetheless, i still think most companies integrating "AI" into their products is buzzword bs that is all going to collapse in on itself.

by h_tbob 2y ago

slashdave 2y ago

Good point about robots. But there will be a throughput issue. You cannot accelerate physical movement.

icholy 2y ago

> Seriously I am a 2x coder compared to what I was because of this. You probably shouldn't advertise that.

rahimnathwani 2y ago
They're a 20x coder now.
CooCooCaCha 2y ago
I am highly skeptical that a competent coder sees a 2x boost.
- CuriouslyC 2y ago
  You shouldn't be. For code bases where context is mostly local they destroy human throughput by comparison. They only fall down hard when used in spaghetti dumpster fire codebases where you have to paste the contents of 6+ files into context or the code crosses a multiple service boundaries to do anything. A competent engineer architects their systems to make their tools as effective as possible, so maybe your idea of competent is "first order" and you need higher order conception of a good software engineer.
  - grogenaut 2y ago
    could you provide some examples, code or repos and questions where it does a good job for you (question can also just be completion). Obviously you're having really good experiences with the tools that other aren't having. I'd definitely appreciate that over a lot of assurances taht I'm doing it wrong with my spaghetti code.
    - CuriouslyC 2y ago
      Try these: Take a SQL schema, and ask AI to generate crud endpoints for the schema, then sit down and code it by yourself. Then try generating client side actions and state management for those endpoints. Time yourself, and compare how long it takes you. Even if you're fast and you cut and paste from template work and quickly hand edit, the AI will be done and on a smoke break before you're even a quarter of the way through. Ask the AI to generate correctly typed seed data for your database, using realistic values. Again, the AI will be done long before you. Try porting a library of helper functions from one language to another. This is another task where AI will win handily Also, ask AI to write unit tests with mocks for your existing code. It's not amazing at integration tests but with mocks in play it slays.
      - linuxftw 2y ago
        Your experience mirrors mine. I use ChatGPT or meta for boiler plate code like this. I write golang at my day job, and there's a lot of boiler plat for that language, saves a lot of time, but most importantly, does the tedious boring things I hate doing.
Flop7331 2y ago
2x loc!
- corytheboyd 2y ago
  I’ve seen copilot spit out garbage dozens of lines long for something I swore must be one or two stdlib functions. Yep, it was, after reading some real documentation and using my brain. It was some NodeJS stuff, which I never work with. Don’t get me wrong, I still find it a helpful tool, but it is not at all a good, seasoned programmer— it is an algorithm predicting the next token based on the current tokens.
  - warkdarrior 2y ago
    > I still find it a helpful tool, but it is not at all a good, seasoned programmer How quickly the goalposts move! Two years ago it was "AI will never be able to write code", now we're complaining that "AI is not a seasoned programmer". What are we going to be complaining about, two years from now?
    - majewsky 2y ago
      > Two years ago it was "AI will never be able to write code" GitHub Copilot was released nearly three years ago.
    - corytheboyd 2y ago
      I’m not really complaining, I’m saying it’s useful, but don’t pretend it’s better than what it is. It’s cruise control on a car— makes long drives better, but doesn’t literally drive for you.
alexander2002 2y ago
lol this made me chuckle

djaouen 2y ago

How are you using AI to double your coding productivity? Are you using ChatGPT, or Claude, or GitHub Copilot? I am an AI-skeptic, so I am curious here. Thanks!

naet 2y ago
I've tried various AI coding solutions and have found at best a mild boost but not the amazing multipliers I hear about online. Copilot gives you some autofill that sometimes can be helpful but often not that helpful. I think the best it did for me was helping with something repetitive where I was editing a big list of things in the same way (like adding an ID to every tag in a list) and it helped take over and finish the task with a little less manual clicking. ChatGPT has helped with small code snippets like writing a regular expression. I never got 100% regex mastery, usually I would have to look up a couple things to write one but GPT can shortcut that process. I get a little paranoid about AI provided code not actually working so I end up writing a large number of tests to check it, which could be a good thing but can feel tedious. I'm also curious how other people are leveraging them to get more than I am. I honestly don't try too hard. At one point I did try really hard to get AI to do more heavy code lifting but was disappointed with my results so I stopped... but maybe things have improved a bit since then.
- bamboozled 2y ago
  I don’t know if I’ve done something wrong my my copilot is so wrong I just turned it off. I don’t understand the appeal at all. I don’t remember the last time I thought one of its suggestions was useful. For me LSP has been the real game changer.
- paradite 2y ago
  It can get a little tedious if you are just using ChatGPT or Claude as it is. Also you are limited by lack of context on existing codebase. That's why there are a lot of tools that help to setup a proper workflow around these LLMs. For terminal-based workflow, you can checkout aider or plandex. For GUI-based workflow, you can try 16x Prompt (I built it).
- 2y ago

MrVandemar 2y ago

> Seriously I am a 2x coder compared to what I was because of this. Isn't the energy consumption of this technology pretty catastrophic? Do you consider the issue of energy consumption so abstracted you don't worry about it? Do you do anything to offset your increased carbon emissions?

danielmarkbruce 2y ago
They certainly are not providing these services at less than electricity costs. So if you are spending $20 a month on it, they are spending less than that on electricity. It's very low compared to any person in the first world's energy spend.
- LtWorf 2y ago
  How do you know?
  - danielmarkbruce 2y ago
    Common sense, having been around cloud operations for a bit. The big cloud providers run gross margins around 30%. So if openai are using MSFT and getting a "good deal" maybe MSFT only get 20% GM. So, $1 of openai compute costs MSFT say $0.80. Of that cost of providing the service, something like 30-40% goes to electricity. So, lets say the electricity cost is $0.30 for $1 of OpenAI compute. (And that's probably a steelman, I think it's actually more like $0.20. ) There is about zero chance OpenAI are running their service at a 70% negative gross margin.
    - LtWorf 2y ago
      Doesn't seem anything definitive to me.
      - danielmarkbruce 2y ago
        Not definitive. But if you need a water tight argument to change your mind on something, you'll never change it.

bawolff 2y ago

I think all this can be true, and we are still in a massive AI bubble that may pop at any moment. ChatGPT truly is impressive. Nonetheless, i still think most companies integrating "AI" into their products is buzzword bs that is all going to collapse in on itself.