3 ms·
Why are software development task estimations regularly off by a factor of 2-3?
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- squircle 2y ago> Essentially whoever comes later in a software project has to work within the universe the previous developers have created, even if it's a total wreck. I call it "being handed a turd and told to make it float".
- chiefalchemist 2y agoIt's not limited to software. In the early 90s - 1990 to be exact - I open a retail store. I don't remember where I read it, but this heuristic has served me *very* well ever since: It - whatever it is - will take you twice as long and cost twice as much as your original estimate. Sure occasionally you'll do better or worst, but on average it's spot on. Or cost might not double as the raw goods (e.g., lumber) are fixed, but time is nearly always 2x'ed. Needless to say, I often get into deep (read: heated) discussion over estimates that don't use this framework.
- KingOfCoders 2y agoSoftware estimation is fractal. Just like the UK coast [0]. The closer you look, the longer it gets. I have the idea that your software project has a fractal dimension. This would be 2-3. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coastline_paradox#Measuring_a_coastline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coastline_paradox#Measuring_a_...