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So wordy. What was his prediction? I still don't know what he's talking about.

• skybrian 2y ago
  He predicted a big Covid outbreak in Japan and it didn't happen. Predicting the future is hard!
  • bdjsiqoocwk 2y ago
    Wasn't there a COVID outbreak everywhere in the world around that time?
  • panarky 2y ago
    That's why reasonable, intelligent, well read people who have a strong understanding of complex systems have a healthy respect for how difficult it is to predict the future with accuracy measurably better than throwing darts. So when Patrick is so confident in his own skills at interpreting and predicting complex systems that he stakes his reputation on getting the prediction right, that reputation should be diminished for his audience and for himself when it turns out he got it all exactly backward. Instead, he now runs a popular podcast to tutor the rest of us who already know better than to make confident predictions about complex systems that we don't understand.
    • skybrian 2y ago
      While it's not great, making accurate predictions isn't really why I like reading his articles, so I'm not going to stop reading due to one blown prediction. You do need to discount for overconfidence a bit.