4 ms·

The failure mode is much simpler: you don't need to physically break anything, you just need to drop 10GW of production from the grid (send a "turn off" command

The failure mode is much simpler: you don't need to physically break anything, you just need to drop 10GW of production from the grid (send a "turn off" command to all solar inverters) leading to a cascade of failures. Getting the grid back online is a laboreous manual process which will take (a lot of) time. Think https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_blackout_of_2003 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_blackout_of_2003 or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis .

tivert 2y ago
> Getting the grid back online is a laboreous manual process which will take (a lot of) time. Think... It would be even more laborious and take more time to bring things back online if the attacker manages to damage or destroy equipment with an overload like the GP describes.
- msandford 2y ago
  The "turning the grid up to 11" attack isn't really possible. I know it seems like it is, but the inverters will only advance frequency so much before they back off, the inverters will only increase voltage so much. Etc. Sounds scary, isn't practical. Turning everything off when the panels are at peak output? That lets frequency sag enough that plants start tripping offline to protect themselves and the grid and it'll cascade across the continent in just a few minutes. Then you have a black start which might take months. There's an excellent video on how catastrophic a black start is. https://youtu.be/uOSnQM1Zu4w?si=x0dA7X7-19CJm6Kf https://youtu.be/uOSnQM1Zu4w?si=x0dA7X7-19CJm6Kf
  - kortilla 2y ago
    Months isn’t correct. Unless there was damage it could be recovered within a day.
    - msandford 2y ago
      Would love to know more about this. How would that happen? What's the process to bring it back up so fast? The video has a lot of good info and seems compelling. During the Texas freeze many power company officials said the exact same thing, if the Texas grid went down it would have taken weeks to bring everything back online.
      - cesarb 2y ago
        > What's the process to bring it back up so fast? It's called black start (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_start https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_start), and power companies plan for it, and the necessary components are regularly tested. It's not a fast process, it can take many hours to bring most of the grid back up. We had last year a large-scale blackout here in Brazil, and a area larger than Texas lost power; most of it was back in less than a day. > if the Texas grid went down it would have taken weeks to bring everything back online. The trick word here is "everything". Every time there's a large-scale blackout, there's some small parts of the grid which fail to come back and need repairs. What actually matters is how long it takes for most of the grid to come back online.
  - tlb 2y ago
    Inverters may be protected against changing settings, but if you can replace the firmware it can likely cause permanent hardware damage. Which the manufacturer, perhaps under pressure from its government, can do.
huijzer 2y ago
That doesn’t necessarily lead to a failure. In Texas a nuclear plant went down. About 1.2 (or 4 times that) GW (https://www.keranews.org/news/2023-06-22/with-temperatures-soaring-and-a-power-plant-failure-texans-have-the-grid-on-their-minds https://www.keranews.org/news/2023-06-22/with-temperatures-s...). The grid stayed online. Likely thanks to grid batteries, see aforementioned link.
- deanishe 2y ago
  Four units with a combined capacity of 1.2GW. That's a far cry from 10GW.

tivert 2y ago

> Getting the grid back online is a laboreous manual process which will take (a lot of) time. Think... It would be even more laborious and take more time to bring things back online if the attacker manages to damage or destroy equipment with an overload like the GP describes.

msandford 2y ago
The "turning the grid up to 11" attack isn't really possible. I know it seems like it is, but the inverters will only advance frequency so much before they back off, the inverters will only increase voltage so much. Etc. Sounds scary, isn't practical. Turning everything off when the panels are at peak output? That lets frequency sag enough that plants start tripping offline to protect themselves and the grid and it'll cascade across the continent in just a few minutes. Then you have a black start which might take months. There's an excellent video on how catastrophic a black start is. https://youtu.be/uOSnQM1Zu4w?si=x0dA7X7-19CJm6Kf https://youtu.be/uOSnQM1Zu4w?si=x0dA7X7-19CJm6Kf
- kortilla 2y ago
  Months isn’t correct. Unless there was damage it could be recovered within a day.
  - msandford 2y ago
    Would love to know more about this. How would that happen? What's the process to bring it back up so fast? The video has a lot of good info and seems compelling. During the Texas freeze many power company officials said the exact same thing, if the Texas grid went down it would have taken weeks to bring everything back online.
    - cesarb 2y ago
      > What's the process to bring it back up so fast? It's called black start (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_start https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_start), and power companies plan for it, and the necessary components are regularly tested. It's not a fast process, it can take many hours to bring most of the grid back up. We had last year a large-scale blackout here in Brazil, and a area larger than Texas lost power; most of it was back in less than a day. > if the Texas grid went down it would have taken weeks to bring everything back online. The trick word here is "everything". Every time there's a large-scale blackout, there's some small parts of the grid which fail to come back and need repairs. What actually matters is how long it takes for most of the grid to come back online.
- tlb 2y ago
  Inverters may be protected against changing settings, but if you can replace the firmware it can likely cause permanent hardware damage. Which the manufacturer, perhaps under pressure from its government, can do.

huijzer 2y ago

That doesn’t necessarily lead to a failure. In Texas a nuclear plant went down. About 1.2 (or 4 times that) GW (https://www.keranews.org/news/2023-06-22/with-temperatures-soaring-and-a-power-plant-failure-texans-have-the-grid-on-their-minds https://www.keranews.org/news/2023-06-22/with-temperatures-s...). The grid stayed online. Likely thanks to grid batteries, see aforementioned link.

deanishe 2y ago
Four units with a combined capacity of 1.2GW. That's a far cry from 10GW.