I’d agree, being wrong doesn’t mean the reasoning was wrong. They bet on the most likely and I would think it was at the time the most likely. Something less li

I’d agree, being wrong doesn’t mean the reasoning was wrong. They bet on the most likely and I would think it was at the time the most likely. Something less likely happened instead. Doesn’t make them stupid at all, it just illustrates that predicting the future is hard if not impossible.