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You completely do not mention, that China is MILITARY THREAT. 1. China takes Taiwan 2. China dominates all chip manufacturing 3. China dominates the AI indus

You completely do not mention, that China is MILITARY THREAT. 1. China takes Taiwan 2. China dominates all chip manufacturing 3. China dominates the AI industry 4. China overthrows the US tech industry supremacy by dominating global markets 5. US economy collapses (It is not exaggerating to say the tech industry is the lifeblood of US economic growth, just look at the stock market) The philosophical argument is actually irrelevant, since China isn't trying to export its ideology that much beyond some alliances of convenience. China never tried to win that argument either, it just blocked off the internet with its firewall, and focused on building its economy. China is first and foremost a military threat, then an economic threat. Hence why winning AI is so pivotal (AI drones will dominate battlefields and jobs).

sschueller 2y ago
Sorry but that take is insane. Don't you think that people in China just want to live just like people in the US? China dominating the Tech industry vs the US makes no difference to a majority of the people in the world. The US no longer being able to print money (without massive inflation) out of thin air would force it to be more fiscally responsible like many other countries have to be.
- anonylizard 2y ago
  Are you insane? China can only achieve that by forcibly conquering Taiwan, with minimum hundreds of thousands of casualties. China can't win a peaceful competition against the US in the long run, because China is undergoing total demographic collapse (Marriage/birth rates declining 10% yoy every year). China's plan is to sprint for the last stretch, while its population can still work. As for the US, it is really held together by the massive wealth from its tech and financial dominance. Given the enormous social fractures today (please don't forget that Trump was nearly assassinated 1 month ago), an structural economic collapse will mean civil war.
  - sschueller 2y ago
    Are you really claiming that there aren't as smart Chinese engineers as in the US? China is very capable of innovating on its own just like Europe and the US. There are even many Chinese that go to US universities and leave after graduation back to China.
    - lupusreal 2y ago
      No such claim appears in his post. Stop trolling.
- kolme 2y ago
  > Don't you think that people in China just want to live just like people in the US? Honestly, I don't think so. And even if they did, they can't do anything about it. Complaining will only give them a bad social score which will make their lives difficult. I think this is geopolitically irrelevant. > China dominating the Tech industry vs the US makes no difference to a majority of the people in the world. Economy, technology, industrial capacity and military power absolutely go hand in hand. If you can't get chips because the production is controlled by China. You can't build missiles, fighter jets, drones or really anything. Not even modern helmets. If China gets Taiwan, the US are geopolitically toast. That's why the US will not tolerate it and will even go to war if necessary.
  - sschueller 2y ago
    It doesn't work like that. Over 90% of the machines that Taiwan needs for chip making are made in Europe. If anyone has a hold on chip making it's ASML.
    - kolme 2y ago
      I wish you were right about this. But then again, why does the US risk going to war with China over Taiwan? You think it's because democracy, liberty and or human rights? It is very obviously strong geopolitical interest.
      - cynicalsecurity 2y ago
        Oh no, what a blatant hypocrisy. The West wants liberty and democracy to prevail in the world and doesn't want to lose them, thus they care of their geopolitical interests. Who would have thought!
gexla 2y ago
You missed the most important items... 1. The U.S. fails to protect Taiwan. 2. All allies lose confidence in the U.S. nuclear umbrella, and they create their own nuke programs. 3. Japan and S. Korea produce nukes nearly overnight. Lots of other countries follow. We now have a much worse nuclear arms race. China needs only one reason to make the argument for taking control of Taiwan. That's national security. Taiwan is extremely important as a strategic island for defense of the mainland. For example, go look at a map of Taiwan airspace vs Chinese airspace. Honestly, I find it almost ridiculous that such a great power is boxed in so much by a tiny neighbor. Personally, I think Taiwan needs to take one for the team and commit to reunification with China. That would cool things down significantly. Maybe the Chinese could even throw in some deals on borders to give the Philippines and other neighbors a break.
- anonylizard 2y ago
  “ I think Taiwan needs to take one for the team and commit to reunification with China” That approach was already tried against Hitler, allowing Germany to reunify with Austria (Austrians were even willing), and then taking Sudetenland. If you reward aggression, you will only get more aggression.
  - Jensson 2y ago
    > If you reward aggression, you will only get more aggression. That is not true, punishing aggression creates more criminals, fixing their problems creates less criminals, there is plenty of evidence of this. USA rewarded Germanys aggression with the Marshal plan, rewarding aggression is great! Another example, Norway didn't want to be a part of Sweden any longer, Sweden rewarded this "aggression" by giving Norway independence. Everyone lived happily ever after, the end. Happy endings are possible. If you say that isn't "aggression", that is what people say about other separatist movements, separatists are always labeled aggressive and combative, somehow people always argue that separatists are never happy and always wants more, but evidence suggests that letting them separate actually can work and make both sides happy. So I am pretty sure that sometimes when two countries wants to unify you should let them, meaning "rewarding aggression" is sometimes the right play. For example, if England instead of waging a war against Irish separatists let them separate I think both would be happier, but instead of doing like Sweden they punished the aggression and just caused misery for everyone. Now about China you are possibly right, I just think you can't say that you shouldn't reward aggression in general, because often that is exactly what you should do.
js8 2y ago
China has no reason to take over Taiwan militarily. They already have like 60% of trade with it, and that share is only going to grow in the future, simply because they are so close. It's the US who is worried to be cut off Taiwan. Anyway, China dominating chip and AI will likely happen soon. They don't really need Taiwan for that.
- anonylizard 2y ago
  TSMC is banned from exporting high-end chips to China. The Taiwanese want to be an US ally, and not end up destroyed like Hong-Kong, hence they'll comply with US sanctions. China is still far behind the US in high-end chips. Sure they are catching up. But China is on borrowed time due to population collapse. China will run out of young engineers far more quickly than the US will. The first mover can have overwhelming advantages. If the US gets to AI first, dominates the global AI market, China facing demographic collapse, economic decline, will lose the ability to compete for supremacy
  - dmnmnm 2y ago
    > But China is on borrowed time due to population collapse. China will run out of young engineers far more quickly than the US will. And the US can attract foreign engineers far better than China ever will. For many, many reasons, whether it is the language (English is far more common as a second language than Chinese, even though Chinese is among the top spoken as a first. And Chinese is ridiculously hard to learn, it's not just the writing system, the spoken language being a tonal language is not helpful either.), the capital - US corporations pay better, the higher quality of life/work environment etc. This is what happens when people foreign to Chinese corporate culture have to deal with it (the first link is about Taiwan but they're not too dissimilar when it comes down to this): https://restofworld.org/2024/tsmc-arizona-expansion/ https://restofworld.org/2024/tsmc-arizona-expansion/ > Chang, speaking last year about Taiwan’s competitiveness compared to the U.S., said that “if [a machine] breaks down at one in the morning, in the U.S. it will be fixed in the next morning. But in Taiwan, it will be fixed at 2 a.m.” And, he added, the wife of a Taiwanese engineer would “go back to sleep without saying another word.” No, I don't want to work for this kind of asshole. https://www.yahoo.com/tech/quit-facebook-tiktok-biggest-differences-161138573.html https://www.yahoo.com/tech/quit-facebook-tiktok-biggest-diff... > Although US and Singapore teams aren't expected to do 996 — I work normal US working hours — the reality is that US employees still often attend late night meetings to collaborate with teams in Asia. > The lack of process, mentorship, standardized performance review, and internal documentation means that it's harder to learn best practices and mature in your profession. Oof. The US can afford a population decline more than many other nations of the earth, and it is continously draining brain power from the rest of the world. Many of the more talented programmers I've known as a French living in France moved to the US for greener pasture. Americans should not have too many worries about the future: if it ever gets bad for them, it means the rest of the world will suffer even harder.
impossiblefork 2y ago
China will probably catch up in chip manufacturing and microchip design even without invading Taiwan though. There's just too many of them, and there'll always be diminishing returns, so at some point what they do will be alright even if it is slightly behind.
jq-r 2y ago
If China takes over Taiwan they gain nothing technology wise. All the manufacturing would be destroyed and many engineers would flee or get killed.

sschueller 2y ago

Sorry but that take is insane. Don't you think that people in China just want to live just like people in the US? China dominating the Tech industry vs the US makes no difference to a majority of the people in the world. The US no longer being able to print money (without massive inflation) out of thin air would force it to be more fiscally responsible like many other countries have to be.

anonylizard 2y ago
Are you insane? China can only achieve that by forcibly conquering Taiwan, with minimum hundreds of thousands of casualties. China can't win a peaceful competition against the US in the long run, because China is undergoing total demographic collapse (Marriage/birth rates declining 10% yoy every year). China's plan is to sprint for the last stretch, while its population can still work. As for the US, it is really held together by the massive wealth from its tech and financial dominance. Given the enormous social fractures today (please don't forget that Trump was nearly assassinated 1 month ago), an structural economic collapse will mean civil war.
- sschueller 2y ago
  Are you really claiming that there aren't as smart Chinese engineers as in the US? China is very capable of innovating on its own just like Europe and the US. There are even many Chinese that go to US universities and leave after graduation back to China.
  - lupusreal 2y ago
    No such claim appears in his post. Stop trolling.
kolme 2y ago
> Don't you think that people in China just want to live just like people in the US? Honestly, I don't think so. And even if they did, they can't do anything about it. Complaining will only give them a bad social score which will make their lives difficult. I think this is geopolitically irrelevant. > China dominating the Tech industry vs the US makes no difference to a majority of the people in the world. Economy, technology, industrial capacity and military power absolutely go hand in hand. If you can't get chips because the production is controlled by China. You can't build missiles, fighter jets, drones or really anything. Not even modern helmets. If China gets Taiwan, the US are geopolitically toast. That's why the US will not tolerate it and will even go to war if necessary.
- sschueller 2y ago
  It doesn't work like that. Over 90% of the machines that Taiwan needs for chip making are made in Europe. If anyone has a hold on chip making it's ASML.
  - kolme 2y ago
    I wish you were right about this. But then again, why does the US risk going to war with China over Taiwan? You think it's because democracy, liberty and or human rights? It is very obviously strong geopolitical interest.
    - cynicalsecurity 2y ago
      Oh no, what a blatant hypocrisy. The West wants liberty and democracy to prevail in the world and doesn't want to lose them, thus they care of their geopolitical interests. Who would have thought!

gexla 2y ago

You missed the most important items... 1. The U.S. fails to protect Taiwan. 2. All allies lose confidence in the U.S. nuclear umbrella, and they create their own nuke programs. 3. Japan and S. Korea produce nukes nearly overnight. Lots of other countries follow. We now have a much worse nuclear arms race. China needs only one reason to make the argument for taking control of Taiwan. That's national security. Taiwan is extremely important as a strategic island for defense of the mainland. For example, go look at a map of Taiwan airspace vs Chinese airspace. Honestly, I find it almost ridiculous that such a great power is boxed in so much by a tiny neighbor. Personally, I think Taiwan needs to take one for the team and commit to reunification with China. That would cool things down significantly. Maybe the Chinese could even throw in some deals on borders to give the Philippines and other neighbors a break.

anonylizard 2y ago
“ I think Taiwan needs to take one for the team and commit to reunification with China” That approach was already tried against Hitler, allowing Germany to reunify with Austria (Austrians were even willing), and then taking Sudetenland. If you reward aggression, you will only get more aggression.
- Jensson 2y ago
  > If you reward aggression, you will only get more aggression. That is not true, punishing aggression creates more criminals, fixing their problems creates less criminals, there is plenty of evidence of this. USA rewarded Germanys aggression with the Marshal plan, rewarding aggression is great! Another example, Norway didn't want to be a part of Sweden any longer, Sweden rewarded this "aggression" by giving Norway independence. Everyone lived happily ever after, the end. Happy endings are possible. If you say that isn't "aggression", that is what people say about other separatist movements, separatists are always labeled aggressive and combative, somehow people always argue that separatists are never happy and always wants more, but evidence suggests that letting them separate actually can work and make both sides happy. So I am pretty sure that sometimes when two countries wants to unify you should let them, meaning "rewarding aggression" is sometimes the right play. For example, if England instead of waging a war against Irish separatists let them separate I think both would be happier, but instead of doing like Sweden they punished the aggression and just caused misery for everyone. Now about China you are possibly right, I just think you can't say that you shouldn't reward aggression in general, because often that is exactly what you should do.

js8 2y ago

China has no reason to take over Taiwan militarily. They already have like 60% of trade with it, and that share is only going to grow in the future, simply because they are so close. It's the US who is worried to be cut off Taiwan. Anyway, China dominating chip and AI will likely happen soon. They don't really need Taiwan for that.

anonylizard 2y ago
TSMC is banned from exporting high-end chips to China. The Taiwanese want to be an US ally, and not end up destroyed like Hong-Kong, hence they'll comply with US sanctions. China is still far behind the US in high-end chips. Sure they are catching up. But China is on borrowed time due to population collapse. China will run out of young engineers far more quickly than the US will. The first mover can have overwhelming advantages. If the US gets to AI first, dominates the global AI market, China facing demographic collapse, economic decline, will lose the ability to compete for supremacy
- dmnmnm 2y ago
  > But China is on borrowed time due to population collapse. China will run out of young engineers far more quickly than the US will. And the US can attract foreign engineers far better than China ever will. For many, many reasons, whether it is the language (English is far more common as a second language than Chinese, even though Chinese is among the top spoken as a first. And Chinese is ridiculously hard to learn, it's not just the writing system, the spoken language being a tonal language is not helpful either.), the capital - US corporations pay better, the higher quality of life/work environment etc. This is what happens when people foreign to Chinese corporate culture have to deal with it (the first link is about Taiwan but they're not too dissimilar when it comes down to this): https://restofworld.org/2024/tsmc-arizona-expansion/ https://restofworld.org/2024/tsmc-arizona-expansion/ > Chang, speaking last year about Taiwan’s competitiveness compared to the U.S., said that “if [a machine] breaks down at one in the morning, in the U.S. it will be fixed in the next morning. But in Taiwan, it will be fixed at 2 a.m.” And, he added, the wife of a Taiwanese engineer would “go back to sleep without saying another word.” No, I don't want to work for this kind of asshole. https://www.yahoo.com/tech/quit-facebook-tiktok-biggest-differences-161138573.html https://www.yahoo.com/tech/quit-facebook-tiktok-biggest-diff... > Although US and Singapore teams aren't expected to do 996 — I work normal US working hours — the reality is that US employees still often attend late night meetings to collaborate with teams in Asia. > The lack of process, mentorship, standardized performance review, and internal documentation means that it's harder to learn best practices and mature in your profession. Oof. The US can afford a population decline more than many other nations of the earth, and it is continously draining brain power from the rest of the world. Many of the more talented programmers I've known as a French living in France moved to the US for greener pasture. Americans should not have too many worries about the future: if it ever gets bad for them, it means the rest of the world will suffer even harder.

impossiblefork 2y ago

China will probably catch up in chip manufacturing and microchip design even without invading Taiwan though. There's just too many of them, and there'll always be diminishing returns, so at some point what they do will be alright even if it is slightly behind.

jq-r 2y ago

If China takes over Taiwan they gain nothing technology wise. All the manufacturing would be destroyed and many engineers would flee or get killed.