8 ms·

Toyota bets big on hybrid-only models as EV demand slows

38 points by alephnerd 2y ago

b_t_s 2y ago
As long as they finally start adding plugin hybrids to the lineup. I'm itching to buy a PHEV tacoma, but it looks like midsize trucks will be the last form factor to get any decent options.
- rwmj 2y ago
  A small plugin hybrid would be nice. All the options seem to be SUVs.
  - gambiting 2y ago
    There is a PHEV Prius which is not an SUV. It's not a small hatchback either, but yeah it's not a big car. And there is a PHEV C-HR too, which is more like a crossover than a proper SUV.
  - dotancohen 2y ago
    A small plugin hybrid doesn't make sense. It still needs room for both the ICE _and_ electrical parts. So the whole car is not scaling down, only the passenger compartment and luggage area.
    - geoffeg 2y ago
      I have a Chevy Volt (second gen). It looks like a normal car, has a 50-mile range on the battery and also has a gas engine. The passenger and luggage area are pretty normal, maybe the center rear seat isn't usable, but it isn't really usable in most sedans. I really want a previous-gen sized Ford Ranger or current Ford Maverick with the same battery range.
      - phkahler 2y ago
        IMHO the Maverick hybrid is a phenomenal vehicle. I've averaged 460+ miles per tank of gas (13.8 gal and I don't run it to E). The 2025 looks better all around except IMHO the bigger screen.
        geoffeg 2y ago
        I've watched a few review videos on the Maverick and while it does seem like the closest replacement for my (now totaled) Ford Ranger, I still wish it was a plugin/range extended drive train. It's nice not having to stop at a gas station except for when I'm on road trips 2-3 times a year.
    - gambiting 2y ago
      BMW i3 with range extender is basically that, and I don't think the compromises to make that happen were that bad.
      - brnt 2y ago
        I wish more manufacturers made models like the i3. It's such a clever design.
      - enragedcacti 2y ago
        I love the i3 but there were some substantial compromises. On the manufacturing side: For weight and space reasons its the only non sports car to have ever been built with a carbon fiber monocoque which is pretty expensive compared to a traditional unibody. Extremely cool but not a realistic benchmark for cheap, mass-market vehicles. User experience wise: Its a great car until the battery starts getting low. The range extender can't put out the same power as the battery so it goes into a fairly severe limp mode until it charges. The range extender is pretty inefficient in part because it just spins a generator instead of the wheels directly, so it only gets ~40mpg on gas. It also has an extremely small gas tank (2.4 gal) so the range extender only buys you another 120 or so miles before you have to stop and refill. It also only supports 50kWh charging so fast charging is not very fast at all.
        schmookeeg 2y ago
        I'm wondering where you experienced the "fairly severe limp mode" -- our REx can keep up with 75mph driving on a level highway, and will recharge the battery even at 65. Rain and hills have been able to overpower our REx, but never anything that prevented us from maintaining 55mph. Not really limping. I grant that other climates and situations may have different experiences. We're on the west coast.
    - bane 2y ago
      The Prius Prime is a plug-in hybrid with about 45 miles of electric range and runs about $35k. It's not a "small" car, but by North American standards it isn't exactly large either.
      - rwmj 2y ago
        Unfortunately that's 2.5x what I paid for my current Toyota hybrid (brand new), and while I know prices for cars have gone up a lot since 2019, it still makes no sense for me to get another Toyota if that's what's on offer.
        bane 2y ago
        It's useful to compare that the average new car purchased today in the U.S. is something like $50k.
    - maxsilver 2y ago
      > A small plugin hybrid doesn't make sense. On the contrary, a small plugin hybrid makes perfect sense. You get all the benefits of the EV (somewhere between 40 to 60 miles of non-gasoline driving, every night, with no emissions) and you get all the benefits of an ICE (easy road trips, two-minute refills, etc). And yes, it incurs the costs and maintenance of both, but traditional hybrid cars have already proved for decades now that it's possible to handle that well. I love my Gen 2 Chevy Volt (had the Gen1 Volt before that, and a 2009 Toyota Yaris before that). If my Gen2 Volt died, I legitimately don't know what I'd do, most cars are a huge downgrade, there's only a few decent PHEV's still on the market. Toyota should have been pursuing this strategy from the beginning, and I'm told their current Prius PHEV is pretty good, but all that means is that it's finally competitive with 2013-era Chevrolet. Chevy killing Voltec is probably their biggest strategic failure in the past decade -- they stopped it just a few years before those vehicles became popular.
  - taylodl 2y ago
    The article says the first plugin hybrid on the new EV platform will likely be a Corolla plug-in hybrid that should be available in the US in 2027.
  - happosai 2y ago
    There is going to be no small PHEVs because it is cheaper to build small BEVs. Case example in Finland: Cheapest new BEVs start at 25.000€ (Citroen e-c3, Nissan Leaf) Cheapest PHEV Start at 33.000€ (Kia CEED, Renault captur) People think PHEV makes things cheaper than BEV. But really mixing two powertrains is expensive and complex, and can only be fit in big cars. Plug-in hybrid is a luxury feature that allows you not worry about charging on the road.
    - maxsilver 2y ago
      > But really mixing two powertrains is expensive and complex, and can only be fit in big cars. So "big, expensive, and complex", that Toyota's only been doing it since 2003. (Or 1997, in Japan). Yes, it's a luxury to have both drivetrains and a sizable battery. But it's not a huge one. (using USA MSRP pricing, a Nissan Leaf starts at $30k, a Toyota Prius Prime PHEV starts at $34k).
  - tomcam 2y ago
    Chicken Tax makes that impossible
    - EricE 2y ago
      Not just the Chicken Tax but Obama era (revived under Biden) fuel efficiency standards that are ridiculous for vehicles under a certain weight. Those regs are more to blame than the Chicken Tax these days (and I'm NO fan of the Chicken Tax).
      - tomcam 2y ago
        Agreed. Thanks for the enhancement.
- gonzo41 2y ago
  What would be great is a PHEV where you could slowly add more batteries over time. Or had the space and vendor support to up the EV only range.
  - gambiting 2y ago
    That would be amazing, except the manufacturer incentives to do so are not there :-( I have a Volvo XC60 T8 with an 11.6kWh battery, and apparently their new 18.8kWh battery fits in the same space - but Volvo doesn't support that as an upgrade, because obviously they would rather sell you a new car than a new battery.
    - brnt 2y ago
      Some government required standardisation seems in order.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  > plugin hybrids That's the plan once their battery factory in NC goes online. Toyota's battery partner Idemetsu Kosan is also on the verge of mass producing solid-state batteries too, along with Mitsubishi's AGC along with CATL's founder TDK. Japan's Public-Private Solid-State Battery R&D Strategy is a great template for how these kinds of research programs should be lead [0][1][2] but doesn't get enough limelight because most info is in Japanese [0] - https://www.meti.go.jp/policy/energy_environment/global_warming/transition/transition_finance_roadmap_automobile_eng.pdf https://www.meti.go.jp/policy/energy_environment/global_warm... [1] - https://www.meti.go.jp/english/report/pdf/0520_001a.pdf https://www.meti.go.jp/english/report/pdf/0520_001a.pdf [2] - https://www.meti.go.jp/english/policy/energy_environment/global_warming/pdf/clean_energy_strategy.pdf https://www.meti.go.jp/english/policy/energy_environment/glo...
- tasty_freeze 2y ago
  They've been selling them since 2012. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius_Plug-in_Hybrid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius_Plug-in_Hybrid
  - tomcam 2y ago
    GP specified Tacoma
- timbit42 2y ago
  Is it only Toyota who doesn't have PHEV pickups? BYD does and The RAM 1500 is coming but that's all I can find.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
taylodl 2y ago
This is why Toyota is the #1 automaker on the planet and will likely remain so for the next decade. This dovetails nicely with their strategy of evolution, not revolution. They've spent 30 years perfecting the hybrid drivetrain. Their current generation of hybrids are more gasoline-oriented vehicles. As they develop their EV platform they're going to transition to being more EV-oriented vehicles. Meanwhile, this gives several battery technologies that are in the pipeline a chance to mature. Kudos! This is a brilliant strategy!
- gambiting 2y ago
  I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not - Toyota is widely considered to have pioneered hybrid technologies and then completely squandered whatever technical lead they had. Their main EV at the moment is awful in terms of basic EV efficiency and value wise it's not competitive with anything, it's like it's made by someone who has 0 experience with EV building and it's really hurting Toyota to have such a weird product out - I'd ask who is actually buying these.
  - lmz 2y ago
    There's still a wide world out there where hybrids are more practical. Their EVs aren't great, but they have time to fix that.
  - newsclues 2y ago
    OP complimented the hybrid strategy and your criticism is off an EV.
    - gambiting 2y ago
      Sorry maybe my point isn't clear - Toyota has literally 30 years of experience building automotive EV motors(for their hybrid cars) and their first real EV has half the efficiency of a Tesla. So where is that 30 years of experience that Toyota has? And just to go back to hybrids - Toyota was such a pioneer in what we call "mild" hybrids nowadays, but they were super late on the PHEV side, for years you could buy PHEVs from different manufacturers before Toyota finally made one.
sseagull 2y ago
Seems like a good bet for now. I just put down a deposit on a 2025 Camry after test driving one. The dealer cannot keep these on the lot - almost every single one is being sold before it even gets there (including mine). And we aren't a particularly big market.
loudmax 2y ago
This strikes me as extremely sensible. It's worth considering how hybrids and EVs relate to various driving patterns: * All short range trips * Mostly short range trips, occasional long range trip * Long daily commute EVs manage that first option fine, but struggle with the latter two, especially cheaper EVs with smaller batteries. Hybrids work just as well as traditional engines for all of these patterns, while consuming less fuel. Plug-in hybrids are particularly great at that middle option. Most of the time they behave like an EV, but on the occasional long haul they just switch to gas so there's no range anxiety. In that scenario, plug-in hybrids offer the best of both worlds.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  It's also a transition technology, because Japanese battery manufacturers like Idemetsu Kosan, AGC, and TDK need around 5-7 years to begin mass-producing solid state batteries (and have already started constructing factories for them in JP, US, and SK).
- thebruce87m 2y ago
  You’ll add lots more charge cycles to the small hybrid battery. A 30 mile commute is only 15% of a 200mile battery but would be 100% of some PHEVs. If an LFP battery gets 2,000 cycles lifetime then that’s 400,000 miles vs 60,000. You’ll also have more things to service when you still have an ICE so it’s not all upsides. More fast chargers is the way to go. I’d love to see the car manufacturers working together to roll out super chargers everywhere.
  - tomcam 2y ago
    Toyota has been building plug-in hybrids for about a quarter century. Their evolution is slow but steady. They are made to be maintained easily—far more than any other modern car. After all this time there is no evidence that the hybrid batteries are wear out particularly fast AFAIK. In fact, older Prius models hold up incredibly well.
    - rcdemski 2y ago
gochona 2y ago
They have their niche. The competition in EV is strong from China and Tesla. They’ll need heavy government subsidies to break into that market. But they can be the reliable low cost ICE producer and outcompete everyone else. In fact they’ll have less competition when demand gets lower for ICE.
- EricE 2y ago
  Hardly. EV sales are slowing down. All the people willing to put up with EVs have bought; the market is saturated. Demand for ICE isn't going anywhere.
  - fckflorida 2y ago
    [dead]
  - taylodl 2y ago
    > Demand for ICE isn't going anywhere. Yes it is. People are tired of the high prices, the smog, and sending their sons and daughters to fight and die in wars for oil while Big Oil executives rake in millions. No thanks. Yes, we're transitioning and that will take time - longer than I think some people are hoping for, but we're transitioning nonetheless.
  - timbit42 2y ago
    EV sales will pick up again as they continue to get cheaper and become less expensive than ICEVs.
bane 2y ago
I'm not a Toyota fan by any stretch, the last Toyota I owned was over 20 years ago. We've been ride or die Honda vehicle appliances since then as an entire family. But Honda's offerings just aren't doing it for us anymore. It seems like the entire industry is moving past them with the company being dragged along with: - very subpar offerings in the EV space (I mean the Honda e, really?) - almost no plug-in hybrids - hybrid tech that hasn't really advanced in a decade - a bunch of effort spent farting around with LPG and hydrogen vehicles which are going to go approximately nowhere as a market - a completely empty small vehicle category (in the U.S.), I'd even be compelled to maybe buy an iCE fit/jazz just for the convenience for the semi-urban area I live in We can't figure them out as a company anymore and they seem to have no strategy. At the moment, if we had to go buy a car today, I'd hit the Toyota dealerships for a Prius Prime, and if they were out of stock probably go hit the Hyundai dealerships for a hybrid or an EV. If Hyundai ever tops Toyota for general reliability, I'm going there first, that's a company attacking on all fronts.
- taylodl 2y ago
  I live in "Honda land" - the headquarters of Honda America. All their engineering is here and many of their cars and motorcycles are made here. I know several engineers and IT folks working for Honda. Here's the thing - Honda is renowned for their small engines, including car engines. They're small engines are far more reliable than those made by Briggs & Stratton and Suzuki. Lots of manufacturers, such as Toro, use Honda engines. Even other automakers have used Honda engines in their vehicles. The other thing is Honda is a world-leading motorcycle manufacturer. Honda is the leading motorcycle manufacturer in the world and the quality and reliability of their bikes are legendary. They're recognized as a technology leader in this space and are always the first to market with new capabilities. Their sales are heads above every other motorcycle manufacturer and are increasing. Honda has a big presence in motorcycle racing and has the most Grand Prix wins of all makes. Finally, their cars have always been about engineering excellence, quality, and value - not developing new technology. In the automotive space, Honda is content to let others lead in new technology adoption. In the sea change going on in the automotive world at the moment, it may appear that Honda has no strategy. They do, it's the same strategy they've been following for decades: let others lead, they'll enhance the technology and deliver value. As far as "farting around" with hydrogen, that's a Japanese thing. They've undoubtedly received lots of government research grants to research hydrogen engines - which probably makes no sense in the small engine space in which Honda plays.
kgilpin 2y ago
The idea of a hybrid light truck (Tacoma) interested me. When I looked into it, the hybrid mileage was only 23mpg, compared to 20 for the regular model. What’s the point of that?
- brnt 2y ago
  Mileage doesn't really make sense as a measure for hybrids. Usually the electro motor handles the speed/power ranges where the fuel engine would perform badly. Rule of thumb: low velocity stuff. If you do a lot of that (and braking), then the hybrid is going to save you fuel. If you do a lot of relatively constant speed driving (such as I expect for light trucks), a fueled engine doesn't really benefit much from e-support, as you see in your numbers.
  - amanaplanacanal 2y ago
    Aren’t light trucks mostly driven around the city, pretty much like any other vehicle?
- enragedcacti 2y ago
  For whatever reason Toyota seems to be designing their hybrid truck options as power upgrades rather than efficiency upgrades. They often put the exact same engine in and just add 50HP and 150 ft/lb of torque with an electric motor. I'm sure its great for towing and for low-end torque off-road but it feels like a weird strategy to target the MORE POWER MORE TORQUE I NEED TO TOW 5 TONS ON SHORT NOTICE crowd with a product category associated with boring slow green commuter cars.
- davkan 2y ago
  I would imagine that some of that is going to be because trucks don’t just compete on fuel efficiency like economy sedans, they compete on power as well. In an Accord Hybrid the only number they are trying to push up is mpg. In a Tacoma they also are trying to maximize torque,hp, towing capacity etc.
resource_waste 2y ago
I always find this narrative funny. Toyota didnt invest in EVs. Now they look like geniuses. They made a mistake lol
- taylodl 2y ago
  Toyota is, and has always been, playing the long game. They have been making electrified vehicles for longer than just about any automaker on the planet. Serious people argue Toyota didn't make a mistake.
KevinMS 2y ago
It helps they have a crazy reliable hybrid transmission Its simple, but almost defies understanding https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmHpSyTsfm0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmHpSyTsfm0
jsbisviewtiful 2y ago
Surprised no one has mentioned the outrageous cost of the average EV on the US market. We just bought a second hybrid last year because the EVs we wanted were all in the $60k range. That’s not affordable for much of the US population.

38 points by alephnerd 2y ago

As long as they finally start adding plugin hybrids to the lineup. I'm itching to buy a PHEV tacoma, but it looks like midsize trucks will be the last form factor to get any decent options.

rwmj 2y ago
A small plugin hybrid would be nice. All the options seem to be SUVs.
- gambiting 2y ago
  There is a PHEV Prius which is not an SUV. It's not a small hatchback either, but yeah it's not a big car. And there is a PHEV C-HR too, which is more like a crossover than a proper SUV.
- dotancohen 2y ago
  A small plugin hybrid doesn't make sense. It still needs room for both the ICE _and_ electrical parts. So the whole car is not scaling down, only the passenger compartment and luggage area.
  - geoffeg 2y ago
    I have a Chevy Volt (second gen). It looks like a normal car, has a 50-mile range on the battery and also has a gas engine. The passenger and luggage area are pretty normal, maybe the center rear seat isn't usable, but it isn't really usable in most sedans. I really want a previous-gen sized Ford Ranger or current Ford Maverick with the same battery range.
    - phkahler 2y ago
      IMHO the Maverick hybrid is a phenomenal vehicle. I've averaged 460+ miles per tank of gas (13.8 gal and I don't run it to E). The 2025 looks better all around except IMHO the bigger screen.
      - geoffeg 2y ago
        I've watched a few review videos on the Maverick and while it does seem like the closest replacement for my (now totaled) Ford Ranger, I still wish it was a plugin/range extended drive train. It's nice not having to stop at a gas station except for when I'm on road trips 2-3 times a year.
  - gambiting 2y ago
    BMW i3 with range extender is basically that, and I don't think the compromises to make that happen were that bad.
    - brnt 2y ago
      I wish more manufacturers made models like the i3. It's such a clever design.
    - enragedcacti 2y ago
      I love the i3 but there were some substantial compromises. On the manufacturing side: For weight and space reasons its the only non sports car to have ever been built with a carbon fiber monocoque which is pretty expensive compared to a traditional unibody. Extremely cool but not a realistic benchmark for cheap, mass-market vehicles. User experience wise: Its a great car until the battery starts getting low. The range extender can't put out the same power as the battery so it goes into a fairly severe limp mode until it charges. The range extender is pretty inefficient in part because it just spins a generator instead of the wheels directly, so it only gets ~40mpg on gas. It also has an extremely small gas tank (2.4 gal) so the range extender only buys you another 120 or so miles before you have to stop and refill. It also only supports 50kWh charging so fast charging is not very fast at all.
      - schmookeeg 2y ago
        I'm wondering where you experienced the "fairly severe limp mode" -- our REx can keep up with 75mph driving on a level highway, and will recharge the battery even at 65. Rain and hills have been able to overpower our REx, but never anything that prevented us from maintaining 55mph. Not really limping. I grant that other climates and situations may have different experiences. We're on the west coast.
  - bane 2y ago
    The Prius Prime is a plug-in hybrid with about 45 miles of electric range and runs about $35k. It's not a "small" car, but by North American standards it isn't exactly large either.
    - rwmj 2y ago
      Unfortunately that's 2.5x what I paid for my current Toyota hybrid (brand new), and while I know prices for cars have gone up a lot since 2019, it still makes no sense for me to get another Toyota if that's what's on offer.
      - bane 2y ago
        It's useful to compare that the average new car purchased today in the U.S. is something like $50k.
  - maxsilver 2y ago
    > A small plugin hybrid doesn't make sense. On the contrary, a small plugin hybrid makes perfect sense. You get all the benefits of the EV (somewhere between 40 to 60 miles of non-gasoline driving, every night, with no emissions) and you get all the benefits of an ICE (easy road trips, two-minute refills, etc). And yes, it incurs the costs and maintenance of both, but traditional hybrid cars have already proved for decades now that it's possible to handle that well. I love my Gen 2 Chevy Volt (had the Gen1 Volt before that, and a 2009 Toyota Yaris before that). If my Gen2 Volt died, I legitimately don't know what I'd do, most cars are a huge downgrade, there's only a few decent PHEV's still on the market. Toyota should have been pursuing this strategy from the beginning, and I'm told their current Prius PHEV is pretty good, but all that means is that it's finally competitive with 2013-era Chevrolet. Chevy killing Voltec is probably their biggest strategic failure in the past decade -- they stopped it just a few years before those vehicles became popular.
- taylodl 2y ago
  The article says the first plugin hybrid on the new EV platform will likely be a Corolla plug-in hybrid that should be available in the US in 2027.
- happosai 2y ago
  There is going to be no small PHEVs because it is cheaper to build small BEVs. Case example in Finland: Cheapest new BEVs start at 25.000€ (Citroen e-c3, Nissan Leaf) Cheapest PHEV Start at 33.000€ (Kia CEED, Renault captur) People think PHEV makes things cheaper than BEV. But really mixing two powertrains is expensive and complex, and can only be fit in big cars. Plug-in hybrid is a luxury feature that allows you not worry about charging on the road.
  - maxsilver 2y ago
    > But really mixing two powertrains is expensive and complex, and can only be fit in big cars. So "big, expensive, and complex", that Toyota's only been doing it since 2003. (Or 1997, in Japan). Yes, it's a luxury to have both drivetrains and a sizable battery. But it's not a huge one. (using USA MSRP pricing, a Nissan Leaf starts at $30k, a Toyota Prius Prime PHEV starts at $34k).
- tomcam 2y ago
  Chicken Tax makes that impossible
  - EricE 2y ago
    Not just the Chicken Tax but Obama era (revived under Biden) fuel efficiency standards that are ridiculous for vehicles under a certain weight. Those regs are more to blame than the Chicken Tax these days (and I'm NO fan of the Chicken Tax).
    - tomcam 2y ago
      Agreed. Thanks for the enhancement.
gonzo41 2y ago
What would be great is a PHEV where you could slowly add more batteries over time. Or had the space and vendor support to up the EV only range.
- gambiting 2y ago
  That would be amazing, except the manufacturer incentives to do so are not there :-( I have a Volvo XC60 T8 with an 11.6kWh battery, and apparently their new 18.8kWh battery fits in the same space - but Volvo doesn't support that as an upgrade, because obviously they would rather sell you a new car than a new battery.
  - brnt 2y ago
    Some government required standardisation seems in order.
alephnerd 2y ago
> plugin hybrids That's the plan once their battery factory in NC goes online. Toyota's battery partner Idemetsu Kosan is also on the verge of mass producing solid-state batteries too, along with Mitsubishi's AGC along with CATL's founder TDK. Japan's Public-Private Solid-State Battery R&D Strategy is a great template for how these kinds of research programs should be lead [0][1][2] but doesn't get enough limelight because most info is in Japanese [0] - https://www.meti.go.jp/policy/energy_environment/global_warming/transition/transition_finance_roadmap_automobile_eng.pdf https://www.meti.go.jp/policy/energy_environment/global_warm... [1] - https://www.meti.go.jp/english/report/pdf/0520_001a.pdf https://www.meti.go.jp/english/report/pdf/0520_001a.pdf [2] - https://www.meti.go.jp/english/policy/energy_environment/global_warming/pdf/clean_energy_strategy.pdf https://www.meti.go.jp/english/policy/energy_environment/glo...
tasty_freeze 2y ago
They've been selling them since 2012. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius_Plug-in_Hybrid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius_Plug-in_Hybrid
- tomcam 2y ago
  GP specified Tacoma
timbit42 2y ago
Is it only Toyota who doesn't have PHEV pickups? BYD does and The RAM 1500 is coming but that's all I can find.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

taylodl 2y ago

This is why Toyota is the #1 automaker on the planet and will likely remain so for the next decade. This dovetails nicely with their strategy of evolution, not revolution. They've spent 30 years perfecting the hybrid drivetrain. Their current generation of hybrids are more gasoline-oriented vehicles. As they develop their EV platform they're going to transition to being more EV-oriented vehicles. Meanwhile, this gives several battery technologies that are in the pipeline a chance to mature. Kudos! This is a brilliant strategy!

gambiting 2y ago
I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not - Toyota is widely considered to have pioneered hybrid technologies and then completely squandered whatever technical lead they had. Their main EV at the moment is awful in terms of basic EV efficiency and value wise it's not competitive with anything, it's like it's made by someone who has 0 experience with EV building and it's really hurting Toyota to have such a weird product out - I'd ask who is actually buying these.
- lmz 2y ago
  There's still a wide world out there where hybrids are more practical. Their EVs aren't great, but they have time to fix that.
- newsclues 2y ago
  OP complimented the hybrid strategy and your criticism is off an EV.
  - gambiting 2y ago
    Sorry maybe my point isn't clear - Toyota has literally 30 years of experience building automotive EV motors(for their hybrid cars) and their first real EV has half the efficiency of a Tesla. So where is that 30 years of experience that Toyota has? And just to go back to hybrids - Toyota was such a pioneer in what we call "mild" hybrids nowadays, but they were super late on the PHEV side, for years you could buy PHEVs from different manufacturers before Toyota finally made one.

sseagull 2y ago

Seems like a good bet for now. I just put down a deposit on a 2025 Camry after test driving one. The dealer cannot keep these on the lot - almost every single one is being sold before it even gets there (including mine). And we aren't a particularly big market.

loudmax 2y ago

This strikes me as extremely sensible. It's worth considering how hybrids and EVs relate to various driving patterns: * All short range trips * Mostly short range trips, occasional long range trip * Long daily commute EVs manage that first option fine, but struggle with the latter two, especially cheaper EVs with smaller batteries. Hybrids work just as well as traditional engines for all of these patterns, while consuming less fuel. Plug-in hybrids are particularly great at that middle option. Most of the time they behave like an EV, but on the occasional long haul they just switch to gas so there's no range anxiety. In that scenario, plug-in hybrids offer the best of both worlds.

alephnerd 2y ago
It's also a transition technology, because Japanese battery manufacturers like Idemetsu Kosan, AGC, and TDK need around 5-7 years to begin mass-producing solid state batteries (and have already started constructing factories for them in JP, US, and SK).
thebruce87m 2y ago
You’ll add lots more charge cycles to the small hybrid battery. A 30 mile commute is only 15% of a 200mile battery but would be 100% of some PHEVs. If an LFP battery gets 2,000 cycles lifetime then that’s 400,000 miles vs 60,000. You’ll also have more things to service when you still have an ICE so it’s not all upsides. More fast chargers is the way to go. I’d love to see the car manufacturers working together to roll out super chargers everywhere.
- tomcam 2y ago
  Toyota has been building plug-in hybrids for about a quarter century. Their evolution is slow but steady. They are made to be maintained easily—far more than any other modern car. After all this time there is no evidence that the hybrid batteries are wear out particularly fast AFAIK. In fact, older Prius models hold up incredibly well.
  - rcdemski 2y ago

gochona 2y ago

They have their niche. The competition in EV is strong from China and Tesla. They’ll need heavy government subsidies to break into that market. But they can be the reliable low cost ICE producer and outcompete everyone else. In fact they’ll have less competition when demand gets lower for ICE.

EricE 2y ago
Hardly. EV sales are slowing down. All the people willing to put up with EVs have bought; the market is saturated. Demand for ICE isn't going anywhere.
- fckflorida 2y ago
  [dead]
- taylodl 2y ago
  > Demand for ICE isn't going anywhere. Yes it is. People are tired of the high prices, the smog, and sending their sons and daughters to fight and die in wars for oil while Big Oil executives rake in millions. No thanks. Yes, we're transitioning and that will take time - longer than I think some people are hoping for, but we're transitioning nonetheless.
- timbit42 2y ago
  EV sales will pick up again as they continue to get cheaper and become less expensive than ICEVs.

bane 2y ago

I'm not a Toyota fan by any stretch, the last Toyota I owned was over 20 years ago. We've been ride or die Honda vehicle appliances since then as an entire family. But Honda's offerings just aren't doing it for us anymore. It seems like the entire industry is moving past them with the company being dragged along with: - very subpar offerings in the EV space (I mean the Honda e, really?) - almost no plug-in hybrids - hybrid tech that hasn't really advanced in a decade - a bunch of effort spent farting around with LPG and hydrogen vehicles which are going to go approximately nowhere as a market - a completely empty small vehicle category (in the U.S.), I'd even be compelled to maybe buy an iCE fit/jazz just for the convenience for the semi-urban area I live in We can't figure them out as a company anymore and they seem to have no strategy. At the moment, if we had to go buy a car today, I'd hit the Toyota dealerships for a Prius Prime, and if they were out of stock probably go hit the Hyundai dealerships for a hybrid or an EV. If Hyundai ever tops Toyota for general reliability, I'm going there first, that's a company attacking on all fronts.

taylodl 2y ago
I live in "Honda land" - the headquarters of Honda America. All their engineering is here and many of their cars and motorcycles are made here. I know several engineers and IT folks working for Honda. Here's the thing - Honda is renowned for their small engines, including car engines. They're small engines are far more reliable than those made by Briggs & Stratton and Suzuki. Lots of manufacturers, such as Toro, use Honda engines. Even other automakers have used Honda engines in their vehicles. The other thing is Honda is a world-leading motorcycle manufacturer. Honda is the leading motorcycle manufacturer in the world and the quality and reliability of their bikes are legendary. They're recognized as a technology leader in this space and are always the first to market with new capabilities. Their sales are heads above every other motorcycle manufacturer and are increasing. Honda has a big presence in motorcycle racing and has the most Grand Prix wins of all makes. Finally, their cars have always been about engineering excellence, quality, and value - not developing new technology. In the automotive space, Honda is content to let others lead in new technology adoption. In the sea change going on in the automotive world at the moment, it may appear that Honda has no strategy. They do, it's the same strategy they've been following for decades: let others lead, they'll enhance the technology and deliver value. As far as "farting around" with hydrogen, that's a Japanese thing. They've undoubtedly received lots of government research grants to research hydrogen engines - which probably makes no sense in the small engine space in which Honda plays.

kgilpin 2y ago

The idea of a hybrid light truck (Tacoma) interested me. When I looked into it, the hybrid mileage was only 23mpg, compared to 20 for the regular model. What’s the point of that?

brnt 2y ago
Mileage doesn't really make sense as a measure for hybrids. Usually the electro motor handles the speed/power ranges where the fuel engine would perform badly. Rule of thumb: low velocity stuff. If you do a lot of that (and braking), then the hybrid is going to save you fuel. If you do a lot of relatively constant speed driving (such as I expect for light trucks), a fueled engine doesn't really benefit much from e-support, as you see in your numbers.
- amanaplanacanal 2y ago
  Aren’t light trucks mostly driven around the city, pretty much like any other vehicle?
enragedcacti 2y ago
For whatever reason Toyota seems to be designing their hybrid truck options as power upgrades rather than efficiency upgrades. They often put the exact same engine in and just add 50HP and 150 ft/lb of torque with an electric motor. I'm sure its great for towing and for low-end torque off-road but it feels like a weird strategy to target the MORE POWER MORE TORQUE I NEED TO TOW 5 TONS ON SHORT NOTICE crowd with a product category associated with boring slow green commuter cars.
davkan 2y ago
I would imagine that some of that is going to be because trucks don’t just compete on fuel efficiency like economy sedans, they compete on power as well. In an Accord Hybrid the only number they are trying to push up is mpg. In a Tacoma they also are trying to maximize torque,hp, towing capacity etc.

resource_waste 2y ago

I always find this narrative funny. Toyota didnt invest in EVs. Now they look like geniuses. They made a mistake lol

taylodl 2y ago
Toyota is, and has always been, playing the long game. They have been making electrified vehicles for longer than just about any automaker on the planet. Serious people argue Toyota didn't make a mistake.

KevinMS 2y ago

It helps they have a crazy reliable hybrid transmission Its simple, but almost defies understanding https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmHpSyTsfm0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmHpSyTsfm0

jsbisviewtiful 2y ago

Surprised no one has mentioned the outrageous cost of the average EV on the US market. We just bought a second hybrid last year because the EVs we wanted were all in the $60k range. That’s not affordable for much of the US population.