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The hope is these machines will reduce the number of steps to produce advanced chips (<3nm logic and DRAM), and hopefully the time and money cost of production

by bgnn 2y ago

The hope is these machines will reduce the number of steps to produce advanced chips (<3nm logic and DRAM), and hopefully the time and money cost of production will be lower compated to the current lithography techniques. A lot of people are still skeptical because of the cost of the machines, the potential low yield, high energy consumption etc.. So we need to see till fabs adopt this (if ever) and if it's the way to go. If this turns out to be a dead end it'll be a big problem for ASML at the first instance. Also it's going to be good news for China since the technology gap will not be opening further.

gary_0 2y ago
If this turns out to be a dead end, Intel will be in even deeper shit. They've been buying up all of ASML's High NA machines before the technique has been completely proven. It's a bold move.
- shadeslayer 2y ago
  Last I heard, Microsoft already has designs that it wants to fab on 18A. At the end of the day it'll come down to how much and how fast 18A can help recoup what they're spending right now.
  - bgnn 2y ago
    I don't think they will last that long. TSMC could bring 7nm, 5nm and 3nm to market because Apple just straight out funded these processes with agreements to buy the capacity exclusively for the first year or so. Even Nvidia couldn't access it till now (if I didn't miss it). Companies are interested in 18A as a second supplier, mainly to increase capacity on advanced nodes. This though requires everything to go better than the plan. Intel wasn't a foundry for others, so they don't have the experience to support different companies needs (from design flow to IP availability like standard cells, ESD, Serdes etc). TSMC doesn't only develop a process but develop all the stuff around it to serve a diverse set of customers. Now, if Intel gets 18A right it's great. It doesn't mean everyone jump on it and book huge amounts of capacity. If the design fliw isn't streamlined and it takes too long to tape-out adoption will not be there. Global Founderies 14nm and 12nm are great examples of this.

by bgnn 2y ago

gary_0 2y ago

If this turns out to be a dead end, Intel will be in even deeper shit. They've been buying up all of ASML's High NA machines before the technique has been completely proven. It's a bold move.

shadeslayer 2y ago
Last I heard, Microsoft already has designs that it wants to fab on 18A. At the end of the day it'll come down to how much and how fast 18A can help recoup what they're spending right now.
- bgnn 2y ago
  I don't think they will last that long. TSMC could bring 7nm, 5nm and 3nm to market because Apple just straight out funded these processes with agreements to buy the capacity exclusively for the first year or so. Even Nvidia couldn't access it till now (if I didn't miss it). Companies are interested in 18A as a second supplier, mainly to increase capacity on advanced nodes. This though requires everything to go better than the plan. Intel wasn't a foundry for others, so they don't have the experience to support different companies needs (from design flow to IP availability like standard cells, ESD, Serdes etc). TSMC doesn't only develop a process but develop all the stuff around it to serve a diverse set of customers. Now, if Intel gets 18A right it's great. It doesn't mean everyone jump on it and book huge amounts of capacity. If the design fliw isn't streamlined and it takes too long to tape-out adoption will not be there. Global Founderies 14nm and 12nm are great examples of this.