4 ms·

If they have the best model, everybody will use it. With LLMs (and AGI) it's really that simple: the company with the best model wins regardless of all else.

threeseed 2y ago
It isn't that simple at all. It's going to be a combination of price, performance, quality, reliability, availability etc. And since the prompts need to be optimised for each model there is a degree of vendor lock-in.
- bboygravity 2y ago
  I wasn't really talking about the marginal differences we see right now in August 2024. I'm talking about the next huge step forward that only 1 company will achieve, because it simply has the most GPUs (in limited supply) + energy source first and keeps that advantage. At some point this becomes a run-away self amplifying differentiator and it will make that company win regardless of all else. My money is on xAI in 2025. PS: the only reason prompts need to be optimized for each model is a symptom of models simply not being that good yet. This need will vanish in the near future as you get way better models. A recent hint of what I mean: mid-journey needed very elaborate prompt (and even loras) to get what you want. In flux that prompt can be much shorter (without loras) and it still gets closer to what you want. Same will happen with LLMs. Another example: with ChatGPT 4 you need to literally beg a model to only return what you ask for (for example JSON) or put it in a certain mode (JSON mode), in Claude Sonnet 3.5 it will simply just listen to what you ask for. So again: that's not "because every model needs model-specific fine-tuning" that's because previous models where simply not as good.
autonomousErwin 2y ago
Best in what sense? Intelligence, speed, cost? Sometimes having a fast enough model at a low enough price makes you the obvious choice e.g. I know Claude is better than gpt-4o-mini but I use the latter for a lot more data processing because it's significantly cheaper and faster and the gains I'd get out of Claude seem somewhat marginal for my use case
- andsoitis 2y ago
  > Best in what sense? Intelligence, speed, cost? Best at product / market fit. And that space is very very wide. Does the GenAI serve as a feature in a larger product (like realtime “reasoning” on X or in Apple’s case in iOS)? Is it a standalone product that general public or enterprises use? Does it play in a niche area? Etc.

threeseed 2y ago

It isn't that simple at all. It's going to be a combination of price, performance, quality, reliability, availability etc. And since the prompts need to be optimised for each model there is a degree of vendor lock-in.

bboygravity 2y ago
I wasn't really talking about the marginal differences we see right now in August 2024. I'm talking about the next huge step forward that only 1 company will achieve, because it simply has the most GPUs (in limited supply) + energy source first and keeps that advantage. At some point this becomes a run-away self amplifying differentiator and it will make that company win regardless of all else. My money is on xAI in 2025. PS: the only reason prompts need to be optimized for each model is a symptom of models simply not being that good yet. This need will vanish in the near future as you get way better models. A recent hint of what I mean: mid-journey needed very elaborate prompt (and even loras) to get what you want. In flux that prompt can be much shorter (without loras) and it still gets closer to what you want. Same will happen with LLMs. Another example: with ChatGPT 4 you need to literally beg a model to only return what you ask for (for example JSON) or put it in a certain mode (JSON mode), in Claude Sonnet 3.5 it will simply just listen to what you ask for. So again: that's not "because every model needs model-specific fine-tuning" that's because previous models where simply not as good.

autonomousErwin 2y ago

Best in what sense? Intelligence, speed, cost? Sometimes having a fast enough model at a low enough price makes you the obvious choice e.g. I know Claude is better than gpt-4o-mini but I use the latter for a lot more data processing because it's significantly cheaper and faster and the gains I'd get out of Claude seem somewhat marginal for my use case

andsoitis 2y ago
> Best in what sense? Intelligence, speed, cost? Best at product / market fit. And that space is very very wide. Does the GenAI serve as a feature in a larger product (like realtime “reasoning” on X or in Apple’s case in iOS)? Is it a standalone product that general public or enterprises use? Does it play in a niche area? Etc.