I think this is at best incomplete. For example, there are people who work as value producers who overperform not because they are "clueless" -- they are well

I think this is at best incomplete. For example, there are people who work as value producers who overperform not because they are "clueless" -- they are well aware that the company is not loyal to them, and they got a "bad deal" -- but because they enjoy the work they do, or they have an internal drive to do a good job at whatever they do, or they believe doing a good job makes a difference in the world, etc. And at least some of such people are unlikely to accept a "promotion" to a managerial position.