It depends a bit on your model of the observed performance improvements. Do we have better training and nutrition (a logistic model seems simplistic if so)? Do

It depends a bit on your model of the observed performance improvements. Do we have better training and nutrition (a logistic model seems simplistic if so)? Do we simply perform better when we have other high-performing peers to compete against (in which case the logistic model isn't perfect, but it's not terrible -- you'd expect an exponential increase in population to have enough additional brackets to get every constant, additive gain, and assuming logistic growth for the population a logistic curve-fitting roughly inverts that function)? At best though, it's a model of what _will_ be achieved, as opposed to the hypothetical bounds on those achievements if we were going to invest resources into hitting them.