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if Warren Buffet has sold most of his positions and the guy who predicted 2008 subprime mortgage and got rich off it are selling stocks and we have widespread a

if Warren Buffet has sold most of his positions and the guy who predicted 2008 subprime mortgage and got rich off it are selling stocks and we have widespread asset bubble poised to correct my question to HN is what do you know better and why aren't you selling all of your stocks? do you believe 2025 is going to be just another year for the bubble? Already the markets have crumbled in China, real estate, stocks, ponzis what makes you think US is immune here? I'm genuinely curious as most HN seem so hostile to comments that suggest stock market and economy goes through cycles of ups and downs and that this one might be the big one.

reducesuffering 2y ago
Buffett hasn’t sold most of his positions. He owns more stock than cash. Many people have had your sentiment since 2009. Sometimes it’s true, sometimes it’s not. Meanwhile people holding total stock market are ever wealthier than the bears.
nwiswell 2y ago
The expectation return for having your money in equities is lower because of the high valuations, but it's not negative.
jarsin 2y ago
Positioned for blow off top and hedged with long duration in case i'm wrong.
ericmcer 2y ago
Betting against the market just hasn’t worked since 2008. Outside of the first two months of the pandemic it has steadily climbed regardless of a “recession” coming every year. I don’t think the economy is healthy, I don’t think what we are doing is sustainable, but I will keep all my stocks, betting that it’s going to all go wrong just doesn’t pay.
djokkataja 2y ago
There's a lot of psychological factors in markets swinging up and down, and there are always people saying that there's going to be a recession. Also, if you think about HN specifically: if the market is doing well, great. If the market is doing poorly, then cash may be harder to come by, but there's way more upside for growth as the market recovers. Jumping on a fearmongering bandwagon doesn't fit with the entrepreneurial culture of the site.
hindsightbias 2y ago
Burry hasn’t had a great track record since 2008. And if APPL is 30% of Bershire, absolutely no concern there. Perfectly well balanced.
mullingitover 2y ago
> I'm genuinely curious as most HN seem so hostile to comments that suggest stock market and economy goes through cycles of ups and downs and that this one might be the big one. On a long enough timeline, the stock market is always a bear trap. It's very easy to go broke trying to time the market, and very difficult to go broke simply shoving money from each paycheck into an index fund for a few decades.
the_gastropod 2y ago
> if Warren Buffet has sold most of his positions Has he? I'd not heard of this, and can't find anything that suggests this is true. I see Berkshire Hathaway recently reduced its stakes in Apple and Bank of America, and reinvested quite a bit in itself via $2.6B in stock buybacks. Is there something else you're referring to? > the guy who predicted 2008 subprime mortgage and got rich off it are selling stocks Are you referring to Michael Burry? He pretty much nailed that one prediction in 2008, and made quite a lot of money and fame from it. Since then, he's been a broken record, and almost always hilariously wrong. Most recently, to my recollection, was his prediction almost exactly 1 year ago, that the stock market was on the verge of a crash, and he allegedly shorted both the S&P500 and the Nasdaq in August of 2023. Since then, the S&P 500 is up 20%. And the Nasdaq is up 22%. > what do you know better and why aren't you selling all of your stocks? do you believe 2025 is going to be just another year for the bubble? I can't speak for anyone else here. But I know better because I can admit: "I'm not smarter than Mr. Market, and I can't predict the future". The S&P 500 PE ratio is higher than the historical mean right now, but not outlandishly so like in 2001, 2009, or even 2020. Things just don't seem all that bleak to me. International equities are even less scary, with P/E ratios at ~13, yielding a reasonable 3% in dividends. It'd be weird to describe that as a bubble. Another reason, I suspect, people are "hostile" to this suggestion is: it's not new. You can pick any month of any year in the past 100 years, and find this Henny Penny doom prediction of "the big one" coming. Maybe you'll be right this time. But there's a long history of people very confidently wrong about such things.
boppo1 2y ago
> do you believe 2025 is going to be just another year for the bubble? The Fed will drop rates at some point to make US treasury's interest payments manageable. Low rates hike asset prices. IMO we're still coasting off of froth from two decades of LIRP. I dunno how any sane investor is still throwing wads of cash at obviously unprofitable "AI". So, yeah, another bubble year. Hell, even if it weren't for the interest issue, do you really think a government filled with boomers is gonna let the market tank just as boomers are retiring?

reducesuffering 2y ago

Buffett hasn’t sold most of his positions. He owns more stock than cash. Many people have had your sentiment since 2009. Sometimes it’s true, sometimes it’s not. Meanwhile people holding total stock market are ever wealthier than the bears.

nwiswell 2y ago

The expectation return for having your money in equities is lower because of the high valuations, but it's not negative.

jarsin 2y ago

Positioned for blow off top and hedged with long duration in case i'm wrong.

ericmcer 2y ago

Betting against the market just hasn’t worked since 2008. Outside of the first two months of the pandemic it has steadily climbed regardless of a “recession” coming every year. I don’t think the economy is healthy, I don’t think what we are doing is sustainable, but I will keep all my stocks, betting that it’s going to all go wrong just doesn’t pay.

djokkataja 2y ago

There's a lot of psychological factors in markets swinging up and down, and there are always people saying that there's going to be a recession. Also, if you think about HN specifically: if the market is doing well, great. If the market is doing poorly, then cash may be harder to come by, but there's way more upside for growth as the market recovers. Jumping on a fearmongering bandwagon doesn't fit with the entrepreneurial culture of the site.

hindsightbias 2y ago

Burry hasn’t had a great track record since 2008. And if APPL is 30% of Bershire, absolutely no concern there. Perfectly well balanced.

mullingitover 2y ago

> I'm genuinely curious as most HN seem so hostile to comments that suggest stock market and economy goes through cycles of ups and downs and that this one might be the big one. On a long enough timeline, the stock market is always a bear trap. It's very easy to go broke trying to time the market, and very difficult to go broke simply shoving money from each paycheck into an index fund for a few decades.

the_gastropod 2y ago

> if Warren Buffet has sold most of his positions Has he? I'd not heard of this, and can't find anything that suggests this is true. I see Berkshire Hathaway recently reduced its stakes in Apple and Bank of America, and reinvested quite a bit in itself via $2.6B in stock buybacks. Is there something else you're referring to? > the guy who predicted 2008 subprime mortgage and got rich off it are selling stocks Are you referring to Michael Burry? He pretty much nailed that one prediction in 2008, and made quite a lot of money and fame from it. Since then, he's been a broken record, and almost always hilariously wrong. Most recently, to my recollection, was his prediction almost exactly 1 year ago, that the stock market was on the verge of a crash, and he allegedly shorted both the S&P500 and the Nasdaq in August of 2023. Since then, the S&P 500 is up 20%. And the Nasdaq is up 22%. > what do you know better and why aren't you selling all of your stocks? do you believe 2025 is going to be just another year for the bubble? I can't speak for anyone else here. But I know better because I can admit: "I'm not smarter than Mr. Market, and I can't predict the future". The S&P 500 PE ratio is higher than the historical mean right now, but not outlandishly so like in 2001, 2009, or even 2020. Things just don't seem all that bleak to me. International equities are even less scary, with P/E ratios at ~13, yielding a reasonable 3% in dividends. It'd be weird to describe that as a bubble. Another reason, I suspect, people are "hostile" to this suggestion is: it's not new. You can pick any month of any year in the past 100 years, and find this Henny Penny doom prediction of "the big one" coming. Maybe you'll be right this time. But there's a long history of people very confidently wrong about such things.

boppo1 2y ago

> do you believe 2025 is going to be just another year for the bubble? The Fed will drop rates at some point to make US treasury's interest payments manageable. Low rates hike asset prices. IMO we're still coasting off of froth from two decades of LIRP. I dunno how any sane investor is still throwing wads of cash at obviously unprofitable "AI". So, yeah, another bubble year. Hell, even if it weren't for the interest issue, do you really think a government filled with boomers is gonna let the market tank just as boomers are retiring?